"I was speaking more about probability rather than odds." -- wow, that's dumb.

Imagine coming in a thread with an expert high-roller VP player, followed by dozens of knowledgeable VP players/followers, and arguing with everyone about VP payouts and percentages. Sheesh. Superman707 totally wrong since your first post in here. Just exit quietly.

They're cutting the TYPE of room, which I guess from their POV cuts costs but still gets me in the door?

I'm putting that almost in the "no water or toothpaste for regular rooms, penny-wise pound-foolish" category. How much could those items cost per guest, per stay? 1$? But it makes them look so, so, cheap.

Honestly losing food comp and free credit, and to a lesser extent things like a cabana are far worse for me. I've stayed in a regular room or Parlor suite plenty of times- they're fine. Not like I spend much time in the room by choice anyways. But free credit is basically gambling money obv and that food/bev credit goes real fast. Paying out of pocket for Wynn's LOL prices is not something I'm prepared to do. I definitely will be spending more money at other restaurants, if I'm going to spend money out of my own pocket might as well get something new/different (or better, see Joel Robuchon).

Exactly my point about the room! It saves them no money but pisses the guest off. Just foolish imo. Not sure about the cabana, but I can see where they are (or think they are) saving money on the FP and food. Even the FP decision is questionable financially as I would guess that in > 90% of instances they award it that money never gets out the casino door.

It's just silly all around as long as they are convinced you are playing a negative expectation game. It isn't as if you have some way to beat a table game they aren't aware of; it's just machines that you have been extremely lucky on. They should be using you as a marketing gimmick rather than pissing you off. Casinos' "We love winners!" marketing slogans are such bullshit; they hate them!

Agree with basically all of that, except I can see from their POV that free play is basically cold hard cash. They're giving me X number of shots against them. Every 1000 they give me is a 1000 I don't need to use, and give me enough shots and eventually I'm going to knock one out of the park

Disclaimer: I have an economics degree and a minor in math which included a lot of statistics courses. However, that was some 35 years ago and I've forgotten most of it, so the "probability" of me butchering some of the math here is greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1.

What I think is being conflated here are independent outcomes (odds) and probability (future outcomes) which are based on the odds.

For example. When rolling a single die one time, the odds of rolling a six are 1/6 or 16.67%. As an independent outcome this will never change.

But, the probability of rolling a six and then rolling a six on your next roll is 1/6*1/6=1/36 or or just a 2.78% "chance" of that happening.

Let's look at roulette and assume ther are no green slots, just red and black. So on each "independent" spin there is a 50% chance of landing on black or red. As many have stated before, if you are walking thru the casino and notice its landed on red eight times in a row, putting your money on black, because it's "due", is irrelevant. You are basing you wager on a single independent outcome, which is 50/50.

If however, the table offers you a bet of wagering $1 and paying you $4 if FOUR reds in a row occur. Would you take that bet? Let's see.

The probability of spinning FOUR reds in a row are 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2=1/16 or 6.25%. So what "odds" do we need on our bet to break even? We need to win 1 out of every 5 wagers, 1:5, or 20%. So for 100 spins we win 20*$4=$80. But lose 80*$1=$80. So this would be a horrible wager to make when we need 20% to break even and the house is only offering 6.25%.

So as it pertains here, I'll just use the odds of making (not dealt) a royal flush in most basic variants of VP at roughly 1 in 40,000. So while the odds on each hand remain the same, the probability of making a royal flush on consecutive hands are 1/40,000*1/40,000=1/1,600,000,000.

So the question is, if we see someone make a royal flush and cash out, should we play that machine? The answer is it doesn't matter. In the next 40,000 hands, on average, someone will make a royal flush. It's just that doing it back to back the probability is 1 in 1,600,000,000. But it's the same probability (before any future hands are dealt) if we say you'll hit a royal flush on exactly hand number 29,236.

So in any given independent hand, your odds are 1 in 40,000. But then pick a specific hand in the next 40,000 and your probability of making a royal on that exact hand are 1 in 1,600,000,000. Doesn't matter if you pick hand #1 (the next hand) or hand #40,000 (the last hand) or any hand in between.

So I agree with Superman707. Odds and probabilities are 2 very different things.

Disclaimer: Disclaimer: I've been day drinking and I might be stoned, so YMMV. (Your Math May Vary)

ugh, gambler's fallacy is alive and well

Thanks for taking the time to write all this. It is exactly what I mean.

I was not expecting to hear other answers like positive/negative EV which is basic sh*t

or

"odds vs expections... im out"



With that being said. I would like to end on a positive note and wish you all good luck and chunky handpays. Peace!

Maybe my dice example wasn't clear? You pick a number 1 thru 6 before you roll. If you roll that number twice in a row, I'll pay you $10. If you don't, you pay me $1.

How long do you want to play?

LOL

You can lead a horse to water but you cant make em think. Or something like that?

Btw I had these shot glasses made. So far everyone likes em. If you are in vegas from the 26th to 29th this month let me know and I will give u your own for free. Cheers!

I don't think you've mentioned it but apologies if you have....what's their justification for cutting your comp?

Free unsolicited advice from a huge fan of this thread.

I'm in your shoes I'm finding a host at Resorts World/Venetian/Circa wherever and booking a shorter than usual "fun weekend" there - You do not have to play as big as you usually we at the Wynn. Let someone else wine and dine you a little bit.

My guess is your host will find out about this and all the sudden they will no longer "not be able to do anything for you". Yes, you spend a short vacation in a place thats really nice but not quite as great as the Wynn but you get maybe five figures of EV back from those greedy corporate bean counters.

That’s not how it works. It literally makes no difference at all if I play the machine in the middle of your streak, whether you switch machines, or any of that.


It literally works exactly like that, if all the machines are 99% payback.

No matter what machine, when, who else is playing, whether you’re standing on one foot, what the gypsy in the cave with the crystal ball said, you’re drawing a string of random outputs from the same distribution, and your expected output is the same.

Yeah. Offers usually depend on:
* theoretical loss per trip
* actual loss (recent wins or mitigated losses could bring offers down)
* recency (longer it’s been the more you might get - idea being it‘a free money if you weren’t going to come anyway)
* frequency (the more often you come the less they need to incent you — note that some places especially locals might use a monthly number to boost offers to lower worth higher frequency guys, different philosophies, ymmv)
* how much comp you’ve used (usually a nonissue)
* margin pressure from Wall Street / actual property performance

Anyway, always shop your offer around. Unless you think like this other guy that you have to play the same machine…

Not if you have a *system.

Only $49.99, Pm me for details.

Obv kidding. Another great TR LEON.imo

I know I shouldn't bog down the thread but I can't help myself. Holy **** this is dumb. No, its 1 in 40,000 on that exact hand. On every hand. Always

End derail.

Jesus, I thought I was done with this topic of conversation.

He, like I, said PROBABILITY not ODDS.

Please look up the difference.

And please smack your college math teachers for not doing their job.

Dont know why this keeps going in the same circles.

I have a doctorate in math, lol. Please, tell me more.

Superman707 - Please don't. Just know you're wrong.

based on post reports, I think it's pretty clear everyone has had enough of this derail, probably including leon, he's just too nice to say so. So please, everyone just stop, ok? Start a new thread, you can call it Probability vs Odds.

I don't really care but you mod as you best see fit. I actually sadly view this "argument" about the math as a microcosm of our country in general. Everyone thinks they're right, there's an objective answer out there, but the people who are wrong don't know they're wrong and/or are unwilling to consider the other viewpoint. Cue insults and calls to slap former math professors.

This isn't opinion. There is demonstrably a correct answer. Most of us know the answer and have tried to show it. Despite the preponderance of responses leaning one way, the "other side" isn't willing to consider the fact they might be wrong AND educate themselves as to why that might be. I don't have the energy to convince otherwise (and it probably wouldn't do any good anyways). Rinse, repeat.

People should be able to have a rational discussion and start with the premise they might be wrong without feelings getting hurt. Alas, life experience has proven otherwise.

Nice post.

And I apologize for my participation in the derailment of your thread which has really been one of the longest running bright spots in the forum. Really enjoy your writing style and use of pics. Hope the run is back on track against the forces of evil!

have you smacked your dissertation defense professors yet?





but really this

i think steve's confusion may be somewhat reasonable in that i can see what steps he took to get there, i think he's going by what we here non advanced degreed people call "lol sample size" and his mindset is about realizing ev of an expected payout requires lengthy sample size

i imagined his thinking to be "if i flip a coin once it'll never be a 50/50 result but rather 0 or 100, doesn't matter if i flip a coin here then go into the next room and flip a coin or board a flight to flip a coin down under, it's still going to be one or the other - but everyone else is focusing on the fact that you could still aggregate those coin flips and you'd eventually have the intended 50/50 payback