FML. Where have I been?

BTW we are on page 100!
Post no 10k coming upppppp!
Time for jason, mateuszek, and yours truly to go on massive posting blitzkrieg!

CHAAAAAARGGGGE!!!

at the beginning of 09' i started grinding 200NL and in my first 120k hands was winning close to 4ptbb. I thought I was god himself reincarnated. And then Variance kicks in and I realize while I was playing good I was also running sick hot, and my winrate collapsed back down to 1.5ptbb over the next 70k hands of runbad.

I don't think anyone questions that you have the skills to be a winning player IMFS, but just not quite yet at 400NL+. It's clear you moved up way too soon and you needed to put your time in at 100 and 200NL while you worked on your game. And I'm not saying this because I THINK I HAVE THE SKILLS TO BEAT 400NL+ as I know I don't, and thats why I'm putting in my time in the SS games.

Weighing in on the preflop stat debate - I tend to agree with Skelm that a lot of people will stagnate at 100NL or even 200NL if they play too nitty of a style. That being said, 2+2 in general has a real hard-on for LAG play. The problem is that there are a lot of regs that try to open up and fail miserably because they can't hand read well, which causes them to move back (and stay) at a playing a nittier style.

I'm considering starting to play more 6-max this year because I can play less tables, which will allow me to work on my game while still making good money. I feel that when I play a lot of tables I slip into auto-pilot mode, which really doesn't help me improve. Personally, I'm much more interested in being a "learner" than a "grinder".

LOL
From someone who uses the bout tree fiddy line on a daily basis on 2-2 like myself, this was an A+ usage sir

If you are xxfreshspadexx which i dont think you are...it's an easy game getting all your money in with 2 outs and binking the river isn't it??

this IMO. variance is so hard to grasp. and only when you're in a terrible terrible downswing will you start to realize how deep the rabbit hole is.


running bad can take so many forms. Take sets. You can:

Flop very little sets
Flop a lot of sets and no action
Flop some sets and no action except set over set or getting cracked
Flop QQ+ sets on raggy boards and get no action
Flop QQ+ sets on QK type vs oversets
Flop/turn fullhouses only to lose to river quads or the case higher fullhouse ( AQ on AQQ vs AA who cold caled preflop)


in 100k hands you can get all of this combined, or you can get little of some of it. and this is just sets. overpairs, 2pr,trips etc....variance takes so long to converge just b/c there are so many different situations and for each of them you need at least x itterations to come close to converging. = many many many hands for variance to even out over ALL of the situations you can face in poker.

And remember, when a fish gets it in w/a gutshot and you lose at 3/6 it's so much worse b/c there's less fish for those other 9/10 times to occur, when you win his money. which means variance will take even longer to even out

You can be down 20 buyins in 2k hands without being more than 5 under EV but be running like dog *****

unfortunately, you'll see.

Was going to help, but I guess my US heritage screws me. Makes sense since I know so little about hockey. Played for over 30 years (went as high as Div II college and still play weekly), currently coach two teams, used to be a referee, have been to well over 100 NHL games in 13 current or former NHL arenas, and have won several broadcasting contests - one of which was for hockey.

Nope, can't help here.

villain was sureshdb. poor suresh sorry bud. had to get that last 5 cents too

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($236)
BB ($278)
UTG ($217)
UTG+1 ($209)
Hero ($277)
MP1 ($106)
MP2 ($240)
CO ($104)
BTN ($200)

Dealt to Hero A A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $7, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $7, fold, fold

FLOP ($17) 3 5 3

Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $24, Hero raises to $64, BTN calls $40

TURN ($145) 3 5 3 A

Hero checks, BTN bets $35, Hero calls $35

RIVER ($215) 3 5 3 A K

Hero checks, BTN bets $93.95, Hero raises to $171 (AI), BTN calls $0.05 (AI)

Hero shows A A
(Pre 87%, Flop 9.9%, Turn 97.7%)

BTN shows 3 A
(Pre 13%, Flop 90.1%, Turn 2.3%)

Hero wins $400

That's a sick record. Too bad you're a Rangers fan.....

Downside of getting promoted at work: My boss is giving me more stuff to do.....

Alex Ovechkin's balls taste like candy dipped in crack. Thats really all you need to know.

beat you to it russian!

so who's everybody picking in the sweet 16? seems pretty wide open at this point. no game with a double digit spread, all matchups seems interesting. few more upsets and this might be the sickest tourny in a very long time.

Hey guys congrats on your HH where you have the nuts and play for stacks. We all learn a lot from he HH and they are extremely entertaining. I woke up this morning, and thought to myself "Man, I hope that the best small stakes players on the planet repeatedly brag on how to play the nuts against bad players."

great post.

but screw you guys who are now saying redline is overated when i finally put in a session with a good one. this is like that time i was all excited and was like daddy daddy i finally learned how to ride my bike and he was like stfu you *** your 12 now skateboards are cool.

+1

(assuming you are not being sarcastic. cuz if you are then i just dont know what to say man)

Lacie, I'm pretty sure I put your blog on my blog roll already, but I'll check later. Also, I was just going to write a blog POST talking about the similarities of trading + poker. I can't write another new blog. Nice story about your aunt + cousin. As an aside, sherpas do 5-10x as much work as anyone else on the climb and get no credit.

Lol. I probably play like 15/11 or so, which is probably average. I had a blog post a while back talking about why 11 is the table average. So not a lag, but not 12/10 either. Zach is spot on with his post. When you play with a higher percentage of fish, it makes sense to play looser - actually it's a requirement for a winning player. As you move up tho, people will start playing back and you have to know how to defend that wide range. Like you're going to open 40% from the cutoff? I can guarantee you'll get 3bet up the yin yang. Opening 60% of sb vs bb and cbetting 85% of the time? O really? The higher up you go, the better people will be able to put you on ranges, so you have to find a balance between playing wider and being able to protect your children, as Farha always says.

LACIE K WHY YOU DONT WANT HOCKEY OPINION FROM NO ONE BUT CANADA? MAYBE I HELP?

RUSSIA HAVE HOCKEY, WE LOVE IT, BUT WE NOT ALL OF US OVECHKIN LOVERS.

HE GOOD, BUT MUCH MORE TO GAME THEN JUST ONE RUSSIAN.

I STILL STRONGLY NO LIKE CROSBY. HE A BITCH.



From Russia,


With Love.

THIS NOT HA HA FUNNY. THIS SO SO SAD.



From Russia,


With Love.

lol. I'm starting to warm up to this guy.

I think H2T needs a pass on this one. I'm shocked he's even playing poker. The last 50 cents was sort of funny.

Whitewhale?

Les wants to know if she's single???

lol i just noticed the postsaving pic wasn't working

my bad