~600 hand sample. villains RFI is 20%. flop cbet OOP is ~60%. turn is 14% (1 out of 7 and this is the 1 so it was 0 for 6). his turn agg% was also low (~25%).

been sitting here for 30 mins typing/erasing trying to word what I want to ask but, unless I want to write 10k words and ask 50 questions, its not really coming across...

so, pretty sure I can't continue trying to get to showdown. at the time, as I was leaning towards folding, I just couldn't figure out what my continuing range would be both flatting and raising other than AdJx + sets + flushes. given we're likely vs an over pair what are you bluffing here? anybody want to just talk about this spot a bit?

cc AJo would be bad, you can either 3b or fold that hand

as played its just a fold no one on WPN bluffs

Fold looks ok, vs more active double barrelers I'd flat again. Would certainly consider bluffing river if a 4th diamond hit and villain checks to us.

yeah, I apologize for not making my OP clearer. like I said, didn't really know the best way to ask what I'm curious about, but I am content with the fold here.

my question is more related to, if we're comfortable assuming its an over-pair like 85% of the time (which I am), are we just cool to have zero bluffing range?

I can't really imagine that being best, and when I'm sitting here looking at KJ I'm kinda like "it's pretty high up in our range but we can't really try to get to showdown, also we don't really have a lot of better hands in this spot to bluff with, wtf..."

so...

1 - in this spot is KJ pretty similar to 9s8s? 8d8s? is the K blocker crucial to villains range in any way?

2 - assuming we want some bluff combos, are like 7d7x and 8d8x the best hands from our flatting range to let rip with?

I don't think so. In terms of showdown equity they're probably fairly far apart against a cbetting range on this board. KJ blocks AJ and KK, but also blocks some bluffs like AK/KQ. KJ is also ahead of some pocket pairs that will cbet this board like 88/TT. Even when 98 and 88 don't block many AK/KQ cbetting candidates, those bluffing candidates have a much higher showdown equity than VS KJ. All in all I don't think KJ and 88 are equivalent in hand strength otf, I would agree they are more so ott.

Definitely going to depend on what you want to raise for value on the turn here. Keep in mind villain is completely uncapped at this point (which makes having the Ad so great in our hand when we want to bluff) so you can get away with bluffing less than 'optimally' because you can't bluff the nuts.

You should call. Prepare to fold the river. Go for thin value if he checks back on the river given that it is not a diamond or an ace. Don't worry about his barreling range on the river. He is just as scared of your range as you are of his. Few opponents bet 2 streets and check the river for deception. Your ahead enough of the time for a call. Plus you'll get extra value from the times he checks with his nothing hands. You can also get lucky with a J or K and extract more value.

3-betting as a bluff is awful.

Folding is okay, but calling is better.

3b pre

Fold turn, he's milking you with a flush. Have you never heard of a milking bet?

this doesn't make sense. his range is like exactly AdKx, AxKd, AdQx, AdJx, QQ+, sets, and flushes meaning I'm behind like 6:1 value combos vs bluffs. the utility of my hand is 100% either a fold/bluff catcher/bluff. given the makeup of his range, the only effective plan I can have for bluffing is to raise turn + shove river. calling turn is only to pray he checks his missed AK/AQ combos rather than barreling them and we can get to showdown. calling turn to bluff sucks. when I call turn a lot of the cards that would be perceived as good river bluffs aren't even always good bluff cards, further marginalizing that argument.



again doesn't make sense. his range is ahead of ours, why would he be just as scared of our range?

who's talking about 3bet bluffing with this hand except from the guy who posted after you? folding vs this particular guy here is vastly superior to calling. again, though, this is really irrelevant to my intentions when starting this thread. my query is related to bluffing vs an opponent who's value to bluff ratio is extremely lop-sided, and when doing so are marginal blockers better, or marginal draws?






this thread never took off in the direction I was hoping for so its cool if it just dies. I very likely suck at starting threads and will refrain from doing so. thanks for the replies and good luck!

Well you've been playing him for 600 hands so it wouldn't be surprising if you knew his range that well. But if you did, then why did you post? If you know his range and what he's going to do with it then you have already answered your own question.

I would assume he is also barreling the turn with TT and 88 with at least a . QTs might barrel here as well. QJ with a diamond might too. ATo with a diamond might too. There are some other hands too, but those are the main ones.

With a 20%ish range preflop 7% could be going to the turn. Even if his stats show lower this isn't automatically true, because certain board run outs will induce a wider range. Not to mention if he sees you folding the turn tightly in the past he'll do so wider. He could very well be focusing on your playing style and notice this tendancy.

Even if game theoretically he should barrel the river with AKo and AQo with a diamond doesn't mean he automatically will. What you are saying is contradictory somewhat. If he is willing to tripple barrel bluff with AK and AQ wouldn't that likely suggest that he is capable of barreling the turn loosely as well.

Perhaps it is a mistake to call the turn. But the odds are probably not nearly as bad as you say they are in your previous post. Again you are playing him so you probably know his range better than any of us, but still. You kind of asked for help and then started getting mad when people didn't reassure you that you are correct.

As for your other concern. I don't see bluffing as a viable option with your range unless you've got some sort of special read. If you have Ax with a diamond in it maybe... maybe, but mostly either bluff catching and folding.

P.S. I love pandas... they are cool

A good player can bet the turn and river with such frequencies so that when they do bet the turn, you will be losing money vs their range when you do call.

(This is going to be my standard response now to many HH questions. Everyone else can also feel free to copy and paste.)

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(I'd call vs a very bad player BTW, but otherwise it's not a fun spot to be in.)

-MeleaNitB

I have no raising range here, either as a bluff or for value.

Turn is probably a fold and I prefer a 3b pre.

pre just depends on your strategy and opponent(s). just don't fold, you can definitely integrate it as a call or 3bet.

obviously nothing to really be said about flop.

intuitively, my ranges prob look something like this: folding JTs-KJs, 89hh, 9Thh, KQhh, AQhh, AKhh and QTs. calling AdQ/K, AJs-AA and obv flushes and sets.