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NL200| Meh spot with AK NL200| Meh spot with AK

11-20-2008 , 10:24 AM
Villain is 12/3/inf after 100 hands. It's not a lot to go on but early suggestions are that if I 3b he folds everything I'd want him to call with and pushes everything I can't beat. Clearly, neither 3-betting nor flatting is -EV but with position I was happy to flat along on this occasion.

Flop call seems standard but wtf does hero do on the turn??

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $111.80
UTG+1: $210.95
MP1: $210.50
MP2: $222.00
CO: $198.95
Hero (BTN): $205.00
SB: $203.00
BB: $201.65

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with K A
3 folds, MP2 calls $2, CO raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($21.00) K 8 9 (2 players)
CO bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49.00) K (2 players)
CO bets $68
11-20-2008 , 10:34 AM
3 bets PF. He is isolating a fish, so he can put you on a resteal and 4 bets light. And you can 5 bets shove and he will fold a lot. Free $$$.

Flop is good.

Turn, you can call again, because I think he got AcKx a lot, sometimes AcQc or a funky JcTc. Shove is atrocious. Fold is not so bad. Oop, it is a fold like always.
11-20-2008 , 10:39 AM
shove
11-20-2008 , 10:42 AM
kq in his range.. i know u think it isnt, but it is. hehe. even kj. i dont care what u say 12/3 is qq/ak..cos it isnt... i put him on kq and shove and buy in on nl400 table

dont shove if he is regular..but if he is irregular 12/3 then do.

Last edited by lionking130; 11-20-2008 at 10:44 AM. Reason: some more wisdom from me
11-20-2008 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Shove is atrocious
Why? If the argument is that it gives him a last chance to bluff then I have to say I don't think it's overly likely. He's not bluffing or value-betting lesser hands on the river a similarly he'll probably not call a river bet with AA. He might however call a turn shove with AcAx or even QcQx. Similarly I don't see how hero can call the turn and then fold to a river shove when he'd be getting circa 25% equity on his call.

In my mind I think this is an argument of, "do we continue or not". If we do I see no reason why we don't just get it AI now.
11-20-2008 , 11:30 AM
He never overbet AA or QQ. He got a full (not likely), the flush (not likely) or TPTK (and sometimes he got the Ac).

Your equity is something between :

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Kc 9c 8c Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 35 79.55 9 20.45 0 0.00 0.795
As Ks 9 20.45 35 79.55 0 0.00 0.205

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Kc 9c 8c Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 37 84.09 7 15.91 0 0.00 0.841
As Ks 7 15.91 37 84.09 0 0.00 0.159

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Kc 9c 8c Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kh 9 20.45 0 0.00 35 79.55 0.602
As Ks 0 0.00 9 20.45 35 79.55 0.398

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Kc 9c 8c Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 0 0.00 0 0.00 44 100.00 0.500
As Ks 0 0.00 0 0.00 44 100.00 0.500

If he is bluffing with red jacks and shove a river club, nh. If he is semi bluffing with AcQx, you can see a river in position and snap a bluff and fold if a club come.
11-20-2008 , 01:50 PM
I'm torn between calling and shoving and can see merits to both, but one thing I'm never doing here vs an unknown is folding.
11-20-2008 , 01:59 PM
I agree with Xerxes, shove on turn is no good...can't explain it, perhaps it's just board texture and my natural talent of postflop play...
11-20-2008 , 02:09 PM
All in. No nit is overbet bluffing this turn. You probably have the same hand.
11-20-2008 , 06:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13_Xerxes
3 bets PF. He is isolating a fish, so he can put you on a resteal and 4 bets light. And you can 5 bets shove and he will fold a lot.
This is an irony... isn't it?

Board: Kd Kc 9c 8c

Hand 1: 47.538% { AsKs }
Hand 0: 52.462% { AA, 99-88, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, KQs, AKo, KQo }

This is the wider range I can imagine from such a nit. Anything narrower makes the equity go down. We are not ahead, so shoving is a bad idea, but we have enought pot odds to go ahead. Call turn and call again if a club doesn't hit.
11-20-2008 , 09:19 PM
@moke i think his turn overbet make his range look different
11-20-2008 , 09:21 PM
i'd call here with intentions of calling any non club river
11-21-2008 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by filljenk
i'd call here with intentions of calling any non club river
and what changes on non club river ? except that ur giving him possible 11 outer ? fold or shove turn imo.
11-21-2008 , 04:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lionking130
@moke i think his turn overbet make his range look different
like?
11-21-2008 , 07:57 AM
AA, and Ac. Shove
11-21-2008 , 08:36 AM
villain has AcA/AK/KQc so push

      
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