Should I be getting this in and gambling it up against what is almost sure to be 2 overpairs? Do I have any fold equity if I check/Jam this flop? Am I nitty for not getting my stack in here for the possibility for a huge pot?

UTG raiser is a LAG Fish, 52/27 over 90 hands, so I like calling PF here. I got kind of priced in with the next guy's small 3bet and 2 callers.

The 3better is also fishy, 34/20, with a high 3bet% in a small sample, and the caller is 20/10 with not much of a history. Obviously the caller has an overpair here, and the 3better likely has an overpair as well.

Should I check/Jam this flop???? Worse case scenario I get it in against 2 overpairs with odds to draw to the flush. Best case, they both fold. Is my thought process correct or not?


Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $190.85
MP1: $203.25
MP2: $200.00
CO: $200.00
BTN: $228.25
SB: $138.20
BB: $105.60
UTG: $198.70
Hero (UTG+1): $387.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG+1 with T J
UTG raises to $5.50, Hero calls $5.50, UTG+2 raises to $15, MP1 calls $15, 1 fold, CO requests TIME, 4 folds, UTG calls $9.50, Hero calls $9.50

Flop: ($63.00) 3 5 2 (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $38, MP1 raises to $76, Hero?????

anything but folding is like insane spew

Does UTG call minraise?

worst case scenario is you get it in against higher flush draw + made hand and you're drawing dead.

as for having them both fold... don't count on it.

snap-fold

Meh, I don't mind anything here. Given that they're the three-bettor and the cold-caller, higher flush draws make up only a few combos in each of their ranges (three combos, probably, KcQc, AcQc, AcKc). The prudent play is obviously to fold, but I'm pretty sure gambling here will never be drastically minus EV and may even be profitable.

If you decide to gamble, I think it's better to just call, because MP1 is most likely never folding, so it's better to keep the EP fish in the pot, since your equity is the same no matter what, but if the fish stays in, you can realize that equity in a bigger pot at no additional cost to you.

Fold and bring a suited hand that has a straight draw attached after flop to gamble, this is gonna be spew

fold pre, fold flop. Make our hand Acxc and I`m jaming this baby, too much dead money. KcQc would be thinner in this spot

Very True. But as pointed out below, the chance of this is low.

This was my thought process. Since I stand to win a huge pot, just gamble it up. I know it seems very Spewey, but I don't think it is terrible to gamble here. I was thinking check/jam because I possibly could get them to fold, but as pointed out I can't count on this. I see your point about just flat calling to keep the fish in. This way I get better odds.

I obviously folded this hand..... Perhaps the fact that my hand got there and would have won me a $600 pot is what spurned me to post this hand. I know it's bad to look at results like that, but in hindsight, I don't think it is terribly minus EV. Maybe someone could prove me wrong with some math......

Oh, did UTG c/shove? I don't think shoving here ever has fold equity - it will just get the money in behind.

Fold your invested for $15.50 and may be up against another draw a bigger one to boot.

I fold this preflop after the three bet

I think 3-betting preflop would be a much better option than calling. It isolates us versus the mark, ip, with a solid starting hand. We then often just pick up the pot postflop(he will often call the 3-bet) and we have a hand that flop well pretty often such that we can effectively value bet in spots and will often have some back up pot equity for our c-bets.

Even after the 2 callers, and there is roughly $50 in the pot and it's only $9.50 more to me?


Agreed, this hand definitely plays out much differently if I do so. In LP, I'd say 3betting is more standard for me, but I guess I was hesitant because I was UTG+1.

I think it should be a 3-bet in both situations. The thing with guys like this is that they aren't positionally aware so if it's a good 3-bet versus his range it's fine no matter where he is seated. The only concern is that in EP you have more people left to act which could increase your chances of running into a monster behind you, but it's not enough of an increase for you to no 3-bet, imo.

you're limiting the combos of clubs to KQ+? what about the 52/27 who is still in pot? you think he ever folds suited aces and kings multiway preflop? and the fishy 34/20 3bettor can't ever show up with them either? no way.

"insane" spew might have been a bit too strong, but i think our hand is too weak here.

I assumed he folded on the flop. Look at the action.

I guess, but it's not really likely imo, since that's not a hand aggrofish three-bet regularly. With weighting, I don't think it should amount to more than three or so additional combos in just the one guy's range.

Whats the point of calling a 3-bet with JTs if you are not going to get it in with a flush draw?

Thanks....noted. FWIW, I never 3bet in EP with this type hand, but I do regularly in LP because of that exact reason you point out. Perhaps it's a line I should explore more often against Lagtard fish.....




Touche, Sir

oh yeah the action skips UTG.

after doing some stoving, it's a shove if they exactly 2 overpairs (doesn't matter if they have a club or not either) or 1 overpair + the unlikely straight(s). as soon as one of them has a set, your equity drops to 20%. if one of them has dominating clubs, you're down to 2%.

so it all hinges on how lightly UTG+2 is 3betting and wide MP1 is coldcalling. you obviously want as few low pp's and suited hands in their ranges as possible. the problem is both 34/20s and 20/10s can be ****ing weird, so it's difficult to have an idea of what they're 3betting and CC'ing in this spot. i have no idea how to weight their ranges here.