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NL100: Stupid river spot deep in 3 bet pot NL100: Stupid river spot deep in 3 bet pot

07-29-2008 , 10:29 AM
UTG is a huge nit in terms of raising pre. I have them at 13.5/1.5 over 3000 hands.

UTG+2 is a 17/5/2 meh semi reg. Their call on the flop scared the crap out of me

I'm guessing i should 3 bet more pre? How much more? Turn check ok? Call/fold/raise river?

OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) by Hand Converter CG

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($51.80)
Button ($35.85)
SB ($102.30)
BB ($17.00)
UTG ($98.90)
UTG+1 ($66.80)
UTG+2 ($261.35)
MP1 ($195.00)
MP2 ($9.00)
Hero ($213.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A.
UTG raises to $4, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $18, 4 folds, UTG calls $14, UTG+2 calls $14.

Flop: ($55.50) 5, J, 5 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $33, UTG calls $33, UTG+2 calls $33.

Turn: ($154.50) 7 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($154.50) 2 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $60, Hero ?
07-29-2008 , 10:39 AM
Just bet/call the turn. UTG has Kings and he's never folding. UTG+2 has Jack Jack but whatever its impossible to fold on this board so just get it in (on the turn). As played, call river. Tank though like you have QQ so UTG can call as well.
07-29-2008 , 10:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
UTG has Kings and he's never folding. UTG+2 has Jack Jack but whatever its impossible to fold on this board so just get it in (on the turn). As played, call river. Tank though like you have QQ so UTG can call as well.
I totaly agree to your hand reading and I believe this is a spot where we can put them on one-hand ranges each with a high certainty.

But if you mean you hand reading in earnest, why not find a fold here? I understand itīs versus conventional wisdom, but we need to win 19% of the time should UTG come along, and 23% of the time should the showdown be heads-up. So it basically comes down to the question is our hand reading mistaken one time in five here? Like, river bet being an expert bluff as seen on TV, or else funny queens or whatever? One time in five, really? I donīt think so.
07-29-2008 , 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WantToLearn
I totaly agree to your hand reading and I believe this is a spot where we can put them on one-hand ranges each with a high certainty.

But if you mean you hand reading in earnest, why not find a fold here? I understand itīs versus conventional wisdom, but we need to win 19% of the time should UTG come along, and 23% of the time should the showdown be heads-up. So it basically comes down to the question is our hand reading mistaken one time in five here? Like, river bet being an expert bluff as seen on TV, or else funny queens or whatever? One time in five, really? I donīt think so.
Yeah but it could also be two KKs or a KK and another AA. While there may be very few such combos available, remember that there are also only three combos of JJ possible. Plus, some people just won't find a fold on the flop with overpair Queens.
07-29-2008 , 11:43 AM
I think your 3-bet size is 100% OK.
Iīm just getting it in on the turn. The pot is too big not to.
07-29-2008 , 02:21 PM
Their ranges are really polarized here, UTG to KK, UTG+2 to JJ and maybe QQ. The turn check is definitely the correct play. It makes the hand very easy to play for you. A lot of the time, UTG's KK will be shoving this river, forcing UTG+2 to let you know whether he has QQ or JJ. If he shoves/raises, you can fold, if he calls, you can call/shove. It didn't work out that way, but your turn check still may have opened UTG+2's range enough where he may be putting in an ill-advised v-bet with QQ. You're getting 3.5:1 and I don't think UTG can find a fold here with KK. You'll be taking this down enough to make it +EV.

Getting it in on this turn would be a mistake. If you bet the turn you'll probably get KK's stack but lose UTG+2 if he has QQ and get snapped off if he has JJ. Checking the turn gets you the same value from KK and leaves you less exposed. You're not committed to this pot, you still have over 150bbs left.
07-29-2008 , 05:43 PM
Yeah that's what i was thinking on the turn too clutch.

I just don't really much value in betting the turn. But i respect the opinion of the people who have advised to get it in on the turn, but i just don't get it.

      
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