Villain is a 15/12/3 (1585 hands) reg, probably a 2p2er, and he is way better than me. His fold to 3b% is 79%. The initial raiser is a fish, so he def knows I am 3bet isoing somewhat wide. So I'm not sure how to interpret his cold call in the sb. Flop is standard I think, I'm really hoping the super reg folds and I get action form the fish, but no. Turn really throws me for a loop when he donks turn for 2/5 pot. It looks like he is setting up for an easy 1/2 pot shove on the river, but he is way beyond my level of thinking, so I dunno. I don't see the point in raising, if he somehow has some sort of air, I wanna keep it in the hand (I don't think he has a whole lot of flush draws in his range considering I have the A:heart). And obviously if I call turn, I am calling all rivers.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $131.50
BB: $40.00
UTG: $285.25
UTG+1: $249.65
UTG+2: $111.15
MP1: $85.50
MP2: $123.25
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $43.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A K
3 folds, MP1 raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, SB calls $8.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $7

Flop: ($28.00) K 4 9 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $17, SB calls $17, MP1 folds

Turn: ($62.00) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $25

River: ($112.00) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $80.50 all in, Hero calls $49 all in

Thanks for any help!

Looks like AA/KK but I doubt I'd fold this.

you're chopping at best

Call for chops.

Yeah, I figured i was chopping the majority of the time. His hand looks like AK. That being said, I have a tightish image, and regs have been known to make some really odd bluffs against me (probably because of my tight image).

I think he's never bluffing here. I'm assuming he thinks you would pot control turn so he is sucking you dry.

I am accumulating a pretty big sample of hands where players are flatting my 3b's. I never get to see their hands because I'm always folding before it gets to showdown or forced to fold. So results would help me :P.

What did he have?

I can't imagine many regs flatting here OOP with anything other than AQ+ and TT+. Flush draw seems pretty impossible with you having the A hearts, so I can't see him showing up here with anything other than AA/KK/AK. You can never say 100% not a bluff, but certainly not hig enoug frequency to ever call this off.

When competent players cold-call your 3bet oop then it's usually something like QQ+, I'd say this time it's weighed more to KK+. Ofcourse I'm saying just from my own experience but the fact is that the best case scenario is that he has AK and we're splitting. I mean he's never trying a crazy bluff play out of position in a 3beted pot against a good player like you.

After he calls the flop bet and donks the turn it's basically always KK/AA, if he had AK he would probably commit on the flop imho. It seems to be one of those spots when you know that you're behind but just can't fold cause villain's line is just gross. But yeah, it's basically always KK/AA, so folding the turn seems to be optimal.

If he just calls, SPR is ~3 against a very bad player and ~4 against you. He can definitly just call preflop if he has AA/KK and wants the bad player in. AK I think he´s more likely to 3bet preflop.
His cold-call pre really sounds like "omg I do so want some action here" and I fold the turn while, speaking in therotical terms of SPR and commitment threshold, it´s pretty criminal to do so.

shove turn.

Yeah, I guess that would work too. This is a good reg, so he is never not making it to showdown when he bets the turn. I opted to call to get value on the river from the 0.0001% of the time he has air here. But calling turn or shoving turn is going to have the same result the vast majority of the time.

Villain had AA, and I think he played it perfectly. Honestly, I probably would have got it in even if he cold 4bet (due to my nitty image).

After reviewing the hand, I think I can fold turn, because the bottom of his range there is AK.

Yeah I think in general you should be very suspicious of turn leads in spots where you would/might try to check for pot control.

Can we ever fold this turn?

There is a good chance I am being results oriented, but yeah, I think so. You really think a good reg has KQ or QQ here? We beat a bluff, but villain seems willing to get to showdown here.

I think this is a chop a lot of the time, but not enough to call.

Yeah, would be really hard to do tho. Also, if we call the turn, we have to call the river right?

Absolutely. We can't fold after calling the turn. We will be getting over 3:1 I think.

Fold or Shove turn. I'm getting sad panda when I see people smooth call in that spot, because it's soooo horrible. The turn bet is so obv. setup for river shove from a reg also, you had to know that was coming right?

This pot was mulitway, and I just do not see you are infront on the river like ever. I think I would have folded turn, cause in villains range its like AA KK and sometimes AK of course, you have blockers but in this case I think you are far behind and the river is obv fold as played on the turn.

Villain obv. can have 99 here also... Why? Because a fish is in the hand and he see value in setmining 3 way with a fish, maybe 44 as well.

We are getting around3:1, but we are not good in 1 in 3 so thats why its a FOLD. Srslslysly. Fold river!! I think its way more spewy to call that rivershove with one pair than folding there.

Based on the posts of people in this thread and my own experience, I think villain's range is something like

AA down to many pairs, AK/AKs. Unless he is turning everything between 9's and K's into a bluff, I really don't think he is playing worse hands with this line. The sizing seems intended to price you in on the river. Why would he leave 49 in your stack for the river if he was bluffing? Seems bad.