Villain is a 12/8 over a huge sample. He 16 tables and folds BB to steal 87% of time and folds to cbet 67% of time. So, I know he has at least a decent hand here.

Would you give him credit for AK here or call turn and re-eval river? In general, how would you play a hand like this?


Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $111.70
BTN: $98.50
SB: $100
BB: $80.20
UTG: $106.10
UTG+1: $124.10
UTG+2: $60
MP1: $87.30
MP2: $181.25

Pre-Flop: K J dealt to Hero (CO)
5 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds

Flop: ($7) 8 K 8 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $4.50

Turn: ($16) 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $13, Hero ?

lol i call this and give no credit (TT?).. prolly fold to big river bet tho

Well if you are giving it no credit on the turn, why would anything change on the river?

You say you have a huge sample on him... shouldn't you have noticed if he played a hand like this before?

This hand is completely player dependent imo, he seems to know what he's doing so I may just take a note and let it go or call one time.

idk aginast unknown i just wont pay 2 streets with kjo cos i think nuts is betting the river more often then they continue with air i'm not sayin is right but i do that.. ak i call more.. just dont think ppl rep legitimate lines with air so much at nl100 ? idk

Very player-dependent. With no-reads against a player with those stats, a fold is probably in order. But knowing the donk I am I'd probably raise.

Most of his sample size comes from datamining. In the hands, I have played with him I believe he is really nitty especially since he plays 16 tables, and I dont think he would make many moves against me.

At the time, I thought about it for a bit, and figured him for AK, and folded the turn. But in retrospect, I think I like a call here.

Does AK/KQ flat the flop for some sort of pot control/turn value play? I'm always confused by a check/call on the flop, and a lead the turn line.

I wonder if 89s is in his range to call a $3 PF raise. If he holds the 8, his line makes a lot more sense. He could also be holding AA if he knows you're prone to making position plays with marginal hands (like KJo). I just feel like 1010-QQ would raise you on the flop if their idea is to push you out. Or he could just have Khxh.

Doesn't an 8 raise that flop? I know I'm check-raising that flop with 89, and willing to get it all in.

Doesn't aces check-raise that flop and get it in also?

The only hand that makes sense to me for him to have and to be beating me with is AK, and thats a big part of his range here. I think he takes this line with QQ, JJ, 1010, (99?) also and I beat those so I like a turn call especially since I am in postion.

I like his line if he has an 8 here considering your range in this spot.

Nice.

I personally don't bet this flop because we aren't getting value from lots of hands he has and we can induce bluffs.

calling and leading brick turn is just another way to do it.. he is most likely ahead of stealer and sometimes can make u lay down weak king. i dont think jj-qq is so likely tho. 99-tt maybe. but this is too threoretical lines, mostly he just has stronger king or 8(8) there simple as that.