NL100 JJ overpair facing check/shove from reg on the turn, very dry board - Small Stakes Full Ring Games

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NL100 JJ overpair facing check/shove from reg on the turn, very dry board

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03-03-2012 , 06:07 AM

plogrammer

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 821

I play 15/12

Villain is 16/13 overr 5.4k hands, probably a ****ing shortstacker who doubled up a while ago
utg open 13%
cbet 62%
turn cbet 48%
total c/r 9%
wtsd 29%

He might have KK+(unlikely?) or set repping FOS hoping to get calls from TT-QQ
OR
a spew with FD?

i never have seen this line from reg in single raised pot

is it classical nits gonna nit spot and therefore an easy fold?

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12054442

Hero (MP3): $181.59 (181.6 bb)
CO: $139.22 (139.2 bb)
BTN: $48.10 (48.1 bb)
SB: $17.80 (17.8 bb)
BB: $40 (40 bb)
UTG+2: $73.62 (73.6 bb)
MP1: $28.50 (28.5 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J

UTG+2 raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 9

(2 players)
UTG+2 bets $5.72, Hero calls $5.72

Turn: ($18.94) 3

(2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $11, UTG+2 raises to $64.90 and is all-in, Hero ?

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Last edited by plogrammer; 03-03-2012 at 06:18 AM.

03-03-2012 , 07:38 AM

MaliceUW

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,490

do you lke kiwi strawberryz snapple?

03-03-2012 , 06:43 PM

TonnaMunz

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,759

A fold is fine imo, folding the best hand a small % of the time is less bad then calling and making a huge mistake more often

03-04-2012 , 09:04 AM

Klairic

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,587

Your read of his likely hands is good. You're slightly ahead/way behind. If you're lucky, he's got a flush draw that only has one over and you've got ~75%. Most of the time I'd expect to see him with KK/AA/sets/3x. I'm less likely to think that your opponent is shoving a flush draw here now that the board paired.

03-06-2012 , 10:19 AM

Ginger78

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 664

played fine, now fold

03-06-2012 , 07:06 PM

tobe4funas

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 5,661

you'd be amazed what kind of stuff these SSers are c/raising...
but yeah i agree with klairic that it's a way behind/slightly ahead spot and he's doubtfully bluffing more in this spot often enough to make it a profitable call for us.

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