Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
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UTG: $88.10
UTG+1: $61.50
MP1: $302.15
MP2: $40.00
CO: $45.45
Hero (BTN): $200.00
SB: $211.35
BB: $235.75
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with A
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K
5 folds,
Hero raises to $6, SB calls $5, BB calls $4
Flop: ($18.00) 9
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2
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K
(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks,
Hero bets $12, SB folds, BB calls $12
Turn: ($42.00) T
(2 players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $31,
BB raises to $75, Hero calls $44
River: ($192.00) 8
(2 players)
BB bets $142.75 all in, Hero folds
Villain is 22/9/2.5 over 240 hands. My three questions are
1) Should we be betting the turn vs. this type of player?
I think his range for calling flop is any K, flush draws and possibly (but less likely) underpairs to the king, sets, and K9. Against that range the underpairs won't give us value w/ a turn bet but may give us value w/a river bet. Also, we open ourselves up to a c/r, and we are not scared of the 4th diamond (which gives us the nuts). I think if we get 3 streets vs. worse K's then it makes it worth betting, but vs. this type of player when the flop was multiway I doubt it, so I think betting was bad on the turn, but would've been good if we didn't have the nfd. Thoughts?
2) How is our bet sizing on the turn?
I think betting too small can open us up to him turning an underpair into a bluff, but my guess is underpairs are a small part of his range. Thus, we want to get the most value from his K's, so should I have bet smaller?
3) Do we really have implied odds to call turn c/r?
Firstly, how often do we think he has a flush when he c/r the turn? Secondly, do you think he pays us off enough when we hit our 4-flush? I am not sure.
It looks to me like I totally botched this hand, and I should've not bet turn, or bet it smaller, and as played potentially folded to the turn c/r. Thoughts?