Hi,
I am 140bb deep vs a reg in this hand (xxjrockhafxx) he runs 17/12, is a well known 5BB winner and i can expect him to find the fold button. Opener is an unknown (i have about 100k hands at 100NL, so if he is an peakhour unknown, i'd consider him a fish). blinds are loose passive unknowns and table in general is loose passive.

I am your slightly spewy slighty stationy reg.

I think preflop call is fine as 3betting is bad and folding means i don't get to play with 3 fishes out of the blinds with position. nobody is gonna squeeze behind me (they all have 3bet % of 2 or so).

i think flop has to be a bet. I am generally not worried about the set mining reg () and so i hope to be in position with 2nd nut draw if i get called by fishes and i can decide to bet for value or not or build pot or not etc.

whats my turn plan here and whats my river plan? I have included my turn play in spoiler and river i have not included. Turn, i am now starting to get worried that the reg might have the Ace , he might also have a smaller flush draw but i think semi bluffs with it. the other hand i am worried about is AQs. I think a 17/12 can cold call with AQs in EP and get to the turn this way.

I want to bet here because i want to fold out his non AQ, Ax hands, charge the lower flush draws (because i now have a pair) and obviously i am getting owned by A x but the lack of a raise on the flop downweighs that a bit. Also we are deepish and i want stacks in when i detect equity change (Q, K and club) check call does not allow that.

and betting weak i think is terribad so i decide to bet strong.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $100.00
SB: $112.95
BB: $51.50
UTG: $109.60
UTG+1: $109.00
Hero (MP1): $146.60
MP2: $136.00
CO: $105.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Q K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, MP2 calls $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($15.00) 8 A 2 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 calls $9, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds


Turn: ($33.00) Q (2 players)

I probably check call here as I don't think we have any Fold Equity after Mp2 calls that ace high flop.

huh @ husker? thats probably the worst line to take here.

c/f

my thoughts exactly,

i think a bluffshove may be slightly worse than a c/f

nvm, i thought we were talking about the river play. huskers obv talking about the turn play, my bad. spoiler is inducing chaos.

@hurt: i still think c/c turn is the worst line on the turn too. we have slightly less than the necessary odds. villian will almost definitely value bet us with all that we beat if we improve to two pair or trips and will check back marginal hands, no IO. and he will bluff (may be) with lower flushes and we will fold the best han.

and btw whats the range for villian on the river? you think he is stacking of 140bb with Ax???!

What's the turn bet for? You're semi bluffing. which is okay if villain is likely to be floating an ace high flop. If not, then you have zero FE as he's calling the turn no matter what.


I'm prob weak tight though

@hsuker: you know i like folding too. I am betting because i think this villian (reg) is probably folding weaker aces here. I would not be very surprised if i jammed river and he folded AQ. May be i am asking too much, but i am sure if he stacks off here on this board with AQ on the river he is just bluff catching and he probably knows that.

he *can* flat a set, esp. 22 on the flop but given that the flop was 4 way i think even that is a little too unexpected esp as the blinds are loose passive fish which will call with any flush draw anyways.

After an EP raise and a call, what is a 17/12 calling with here? I don't think AT or AJ is in his range.

I really don't mind betting the turn since we def do have FE. c/c is the worst option by far. I think he'll dump any ace on the turn other than maybe AK and NFD.

C/c the turn is my preferred line here for a few reasons:

- We have some showdown equity, so I like playing the hand like a bluff catcher. If he has us beat he's gonna bet and we can probably call with up to 14 outs. If he's on a draw, he's gonna semibluff this at least some amount of the time, so we're not missing out 100% on value from lower flush draws.

- I don't like folding decent draws, but imo we can't call a raise here. So I'd rather c/c and make sure that I can see a river card.

It's close though imo between c/c and b/f and depends a lot on what he's doing with small suited Ax pf and on the flop. I'd expect him to fold those on the flop pretty often if it's not clubs, but if he calls with like A7s or so pf and on the flop, then semi-bluffing>c/calling.

As played I c/c or c/f on the river, but I lean towards c/f. I don't think he's gonna bluff busted FDs very often in this spot, when you could easily take this line with AK or AQ even.

Either c/c turn or c/f, depending on how much he bets (if he bets?). What does a reg hold in this spot that would fold to a second barrel? His range consists of hands like AQ, MAYBE AJs, sets and maaaaybe some kind of JT of clubs, but that's unlikely.

River is easy c/f.

maybe not much but a question that's just as important is, how often does he call the turn and fold the river?

betting turn and betting almost all rivers is a fine play imo, he'll be very hard pressed to call 3 with AJ and you have monster equity against most hands that flat twice anyway.

Hmm, yeah though about betting turn and shoving river, but I feel like he's got different sets + AQ often enough to make it not profitable. (Well, draws doesn't matter as we win at showdown anyway) To bet turn and shove river pritty much only folds out AJ, or a strangely played AK. Get my point?

I guess it's not the most horrible line though, as he shouldn't have any sets in his range by the river, but meeeh.

Idk about betting three streets. I doubt he ever has AJ (except AcJc) when he calls the turn. Our hand should look super strong since we first-called a UTG raise and bet into four opponents on the flop and now we're barreling. There's like 10 combos he calls on the turn that will fold river on a brick (clubbed Aces, JcTc, Jc9c), downweighted 9 that he MAY fold (Ace King), 20 that he definitely calls (sets, AQ, A8s, A2s).

sets and two pairs are downweighted by the river as well since there's a very good chance he either raises flop or raises turn.

and you shouldn't eliminate bare aces altogether.. downweight sure, but don't eliminate TPGK altogether. don't think it's a given that he folds them 100% of the time..

This guy's one of the winningest 100NL players period. Him calling two streets w/ like Ad9d or whatever should be downweighted to like 0.01%. I was thinking he might even fold that type of hand on the flop, that's how unlikely it is for him to call two streets w/ it.

I don't think "winningest" is a word, but I could be wrong...

You are.

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/winningest
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/winningest

"Pritty" good try, though.

Oh man you just got owned hard

Yeah I also think if he calls weak Axs pf, he folds those at least some of the time on the flop cause calling just to see someone come alive behind and raise sucks. That's why c/c>betting.