Original raiser is 33/13 over 250, 3better is 22/18 over 525 with 13% 3bet on BU, 12% squeeze overall. The one time he was 4bet, he didn't fold. So what's the plan now?


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP2): $83.20
CO: $50.00
BTN: $64.50
SB: $50.00
BB: $19.95
UTG: $52.35
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $45.00
MP1: $50.80

CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is MP2 with J J
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BTN raises to $7.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $5.50, Hero ?

with original raiser calling you have good enough IO to set mine

and if the flop comes raggy and the 3better cbets? If he barrels? (assuming the other guy folds)

It depends on reads. with the info you provided, I would lean on the safer side and fold OTF unless I flop a J. So hard to play JJ for an overpair value in a 3 bet pot OOP. IP it is a different story

With the situation as described I don't mind a shove here. I think it's very difficult for either the PFR'er or the squeezer to comfortably call your backraise AI and there is already a fair amount of dead money in the pot.

first, I would 3bet MP1 for value
as played, shove

ohhh, these russians....

I think pre is kinda close. With 100bbs it's probably a 4bet..but with 130 i think i lean more towards flatting if you don't have history

So I did the math, assuming
- you get called 20% of the time by the 3better (AA, KK, QQ, AK)
- OR folds to your shove

Shoving is +EV in this spot if 3better had less than 80 BB. Given he has 129BB, shove is -EV.

All numbers in BB

3 bettor stack EV
50 7.7
70 2.1
80 -0.7
90 -3.5
100 -6.3
110 -9.1
120 -11.9
130 -14.7

You know this is 50nl right?

who would argue that 33/13 will call our 3bet oop with a lot of garbage? don't need to be russian to figure that out

i redid the math. thought it was 100NL. the conclusion is even stronger

I seriously doubt the OR calls a 4bet shove with something that does not beat a middle pair or at least AK.... he is bad, but this hand, as played, is kind of face up.

now, figure, how cooler would I be if I were a Russian?

flatting orignal raiser is fine but so isnt 3 betting him for value. u can flat here

flatting orignal raiser is fine but so isnt 3 betting him for value. u can flat here

Pretty sure your math is wrong somewhere; not sure if you're forgetting the dead money in the pot (whether he folds OR ships), or forgetting that we have equity when called, or something else. I've done the math in the past and there's no way that it's unprofitable to ship 80 BBs with JJ on someone who is 3betting 12% and only shipping QQ+/AK.

130 deep this is a call. NL50 nits don't get it in w/o KK+ this deep: edit they also don't sqz this deep as a bluff very often.

Strictly set mining without better reads.

all in, there's a third of a stack in the middle already and BTN is a squeezemonkey

I almost insta shove here.

+1

do the math yourself and post

wrong

*ahem*

please

QQ+,AK is 2.6%, so if that's his call range then he's calling 2.6/12 = 0.217

He folds, we win 18.25 (count up the blinds + what's already in) * 0.783 = +14.29

He calls, we have 36.19% equity vs his range. We can lose 62.50 or win 75.25.
(0.3619*75.25)-(0.6581*62.50)=-13.90

-13.90*0.217 = -3.02 (that's EV*chance it happens)

14.29-3.02 = 11.27

which in the world of 50nl, = $$$$$$

BTW this assumes the other guy folds 100% of the time, but whaaaaaaaatever


so there we have it, shipping even with these stacks is epic profit assuming 12% range and QQ+,AK stackoff range. So clearly, either you made a mistake somewhere or I did.

i have no idea how wre did his math but...

(.80*18.75)(dead money we win when he folds pre) - (.20*12.44)(amount we lose when we get in pre)
15.00-2.49=+12.51 every time we shove with these stacks.

i rounded up for some numbers hence the diff result from smeets.