Have 3000 hands on Villian 12.2/10.35 AF of 4.24

Do you drop this or......

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
10 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG pokerpesche ($60.45)
UTG+1 Froutch1 ($30.30)
UTG+2 --Whail-- ($141)
MP1 LeLECaCA ($138.50)
MP2 bruno78x ($117.10)
MP3 Hero ($97.50)
CO Tregon81 ($106.95)
BTN diddi71 ($76.35)
SB pokermom1963 ($95)
BB qsdfzerx ($77)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 10 players) Hero is MP3 A J
5 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, Tregon81 calls $3.50, diddi71 calls $3.50, 1 fold, qsdfzerx calls $2.50

Flop: J 7 6 ($14.50, 4 players)
qsdfzerx checks, Hero bets $11, Tregon81 raises to $33, 1 fold, qsdfzerx folds, $22 to Hero ($83)?

I can see why you're thinking about it (why wouldn't he just call, right?), but yeah, he's prob bluffing close to never.

Lol, I wouldn't say he's bluffing close to never, but the point of a cash game hand is to maximize hand value for profit. Your hand has no value because a) you don't know if you're ahead and can't get value even if it is b) your hand may have no actual value since you are drawing dead. Fold, onto next hand.

LOL wat?

This could certainly be a draw against this kind of player but I think we're toasted here more often than not.

So I'm folding unless someone can give me a real good reason not to.

Not sure what you didn't understand? I agree, this hand should be folded, not sure what's so ambiguous? AJ has no implied value and may not have any real value.

I sometimes get confused as to how strong this hand is based on how aggresive a player he can be. Questioning weather he would push a draw?

That is why I post to learn to eliminate the mistakes

I would bet a bit less on the flop.The pot is already bloated, with an SPR of 7. You certainly need to bet the hand for value, but the board is pretty dry, and I'm not normally happy to play for stacks in this spot. A bet of $8-$10 should give you mostly the same info. A 12/10 is not calling/raising with too weak of a range here usually, considering the strength you've shown, altho you beat the JTs, QJs, KJs, and possible 89s combos he may hold (13 combos).

To that end, what are the stats of the other callers?

No stats on Button and BB is 11.05/7.93 2.6AF

Sad thing is when you get this many callers you fear the set I really should have gotten away from this hand. I am trying to plug the leaks that will make me a bigger winner. This hand was a leak

Wat +1? What do you mean we can't get value if we're ahead? He just put in a third of a buy-in, and you're saying he bluffs with some frequency. If he has 89 or 45 he's gonna call our shove, thus giving us nice value when we're ahead. In fact, even if he's just spazzing with air and folding to a shove, we still make nice value in that the pot is already like half a buy-in.

Your whole post here seems to say something nonsensical like "You'll never know if you're ahead, and you may nearly be dead, so just fold." While the two premises are true, the conclusion doesn't follow. MY point, on the other hand, was that "We may be drawing dead (as you said), and in fact, this is VERY OFTEN the case, and that's why we should fold." To rephrase, it's not the fact that he may have the nuts which makes this a fold, it's the fact that he's bluffing "close to never," or close enough to never to drop our equity below the needed amount.

agree he's rarely bluffing

probs not in great shape considering his value range:draws is reasonably high on this board

Please don't post HHs with screen names!

Nice Set by the way Stupid Me

i fold overpairs

Heck I couldnt find a way to fold top pair top kicker

I hate to fold here but against a guy with his stats I would have to:

1) based on his stats he's a multi-tabling nit so not likely bluffing
2) there's still 2 other people in the hand he has to worry about, one who hasn't acted yet. not likely bluffing.
3) pretty dry board, so he's likely not semi-bluffing.

Shed one tear, slide it into the muck, and move on.