villian is 40/14. do you like this y/n? ive seen him pot with < tp


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $26.05
MP1: $20.15
MP2: $61.00
CO: $18.70
BTN: $22.20
Hero (SB): $214.70
BB: $18.50
UTG: $10.20
UTG+1: $119.40

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with T 9
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, UTG+2 calls $3.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($11.50) K 7 J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $11.50, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls $11.50

Turn: ($34.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $24

looks good to me. he folded right?

I watched a CR vid recently where hero (solid mid/high reg) commented about how stupid villain was for taking the line you just took.

while it might be a stupid line vs solid mid/high regs, it just might be good vs a 40/14 who we have a read on.

hmmm its not bad but pretty marginal imo after all villian is a 40/14 maybe he doesnt have the K but he calls your bet anyways because it seems so bluffy

so meh

with a probable 8 outs on the river that you can't profitably c/c with, it can never really be awful but i don't think it's advisable. his PFR is nothing too crazy and he opened EP so i'd be mostly giving him credit for mid pairs+ and big cards. and of course his cbet range into 2 players is at least a little stronger than if it were 1. true it also makes your call + turn donk look a little stronger, but i wouldn't expect him to really appreciate that

AJ and QQ aren't folding and hell from a 40/14 can you even be sure that TT/99/AQ will fold? yeah i don't really like it

1. why does a 40/14 have to be positionally aware, thus raising less hands in EP than in LP?
2. why do we assume a 40/14 varies his Cbet range based on nr players?

i don't really think he's positionally aware, but that's sort of the problem. there's such a discrepancy between his VPIP and PFR that traditionally guys like him are limping a lot in EP, limping their smallest pairs, suited stuff, connectors, etc. they tend to be "positionally aware" enough to do more of their raising when it's folded to them in late position though

and i don't give him all that much credit for varying his cbet range, i only said it would tend to make his range "at least a little stronger" on average, whereas with a better player it might be significantly stronger. sure some players with dumb stats will c-bet the same regardless, but overall, against anyone who's not c-betting their air 100% of the time you should probably assume they're doing less of it the more players there are in the pot. it's just kind of a common sense thing that even many bad players innately adjust to

do not want

this cannot be serious...

whats a good alternative plan on the flop?

I'd 3bet this preflop, and cbet 60% pot on a flop like this.

I think this is a terrible idea. Villain isn't a reg, we don't need to balance our 3bet range vs him. Also, villain is a fish, which means hes going to call the 3bet leaving you out of a position with a crappy hand and little fold equity.

lol didn't expect to see the nut bad bluff when i opened this thread

i don't even get comments like this. granted i think it's very unlikely to be profitable, but if you make some reasonable assumptions and do some math it seems hard for it to be horrible. OP is betting 2/3 pot with a probable 8 outs and implied odds when he gets called and hits. it really doesn't take that much fold equity for it to just be a meh play

it's weird that i'm defending it since i don't like the play and would never make it, but betting with an 8 out draw that you can't profitably c/c with is rarely gonna be the worst bluff ever, even against a fishy player (your FE goes down but your implied odds on hitting go up to make up for it a little bit). now maybe if he had complete air in the same spot..

the only thing that redeems OP is his specific holding, but if you look at board texture, and look at who he's playing against, this is as bad as it gets. i agree though, maybe i exaggerated. certainly not a "good" spot to bluff though.

i am going to change my mind and say i am actually fine with this. considering UTG+1's wide opening range (presumably he's not positionally aware), and considering the preflop and flop action, i don't think UTG+1 is going to have Jx or stronger enough to make this unprofitable. we can't c/c twice, so this is the next best thing. an alternative line would be leading the flop. i don't think 3betting preflop or c/r'ing at any point is good. nh