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Getting 3.5:1 odds on the river with a set... call? Getting 3.5:1 odds on the river with a set... call?

03-01-2011 , 03:12 AM
Hey everyone, this is the other hand I would like to hear your views on. Is anyone capable of folding this? I know the standard is "don't fold sets", but in this case, every draw hits (although it would've been a backdoor flush draw). Please read on for the hand and some thoughts...

UTG+1 raises to $7, UTG+2 calls, and I call from late position with 99. So pot is roughly $23.
Flop is J 9 5
Original raiser bets $14, UTG+2 calls, and I reraise to $45 with my set. Original raiser folds, UTG+2 calls. Pot is now ~$125.
Turn is 3
Opponent checks to me, I bet $80. Opponent calls. Pot is now ~$285.
River is possibly the worst card in the deck, the Q
Opponent moves all in for his remaining $120. I have that covered. Pot is $405 or so. He hasn't shown a bluff all night.

So yeah, you don't fold sets... but what can you beat here? 10-8 got there, two random clubs got there... Can he really be betting QJ for value? Or would he have bluffed there thinking I'd actually fold with those odds?

Last edited by nile rivered; 03-01-2011 at 03:19 AM. Reason: more explanation
03-01-2011 , 03:19 AM
call? not sure what else you want to do here
03-01-2011 , 03:26 AM
Sorry, let me clarify and point out this was in a casino, at the lowest limit tables in the building. Not sure if you think of those casual players differently than someone multi-tabling $1/2 online. I know I do though.
03-01-2011 , 03:27 AM
3.5-1 set river live poker call next
03-01-2011 , 03:33 AM
I thought we had a low-stakes live section for a reason...
03-01-2011 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zachvac
I thought we had a BBV section for a reason...
FYP
03-01-2011 , 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zachvac
I thought we had a low-stakes live section for a reason...
D'oh. Sorry. This place is a bit of a zoo here at first blush...
03-01-2011 , 05:04 AM
Not sure what stack sizes are, that would help here, but I'm raising much more on the flop and massively bombing turn when the UTG+2 guy call/calls the flop.
03-01-2011 , 06:47 AM
Bet sizing looks good to me, snap calling no doubt. Not a good river card but you're far too committed and will see QJ a lot
03-01-2011 , 07:00 AM
nile rivered gettin' rivered
03-02-2011 , 03:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaliceUW
nile rivered gettin' rivered
Correct

He showed 76

Gutshot straight draw on the flop, called with the intent of stealing it on the turn, but then he made a flush draw so he just called (or so he told me after).

I would've put him on 108 frankly, it's the only hand that made sense - what he did made little sense, but them's the breaks I guess. Should've put it in the Live forum in any case, but thanks guys. Looks like not a single player could've gotten away from it.
03-02-2011 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nile rivered
Correct

He showed 76

Gutshot straight draw on the flop, called with the intent of stealing it on the turn, but then he made a flush draw so he just called (or so he told me after).

I would've put him on 108 frankly, it's the only hand that made sense - what he did made little sense, but them's the breaks I guess. Should've put it in the Live forum in any case, but thanks guys. Looks like not a single online player could've gotten away from it.
Betsizing in a live game is totally different from an online game, and 1/2 live isn't equal to it's online counterpart. Sure you're getting >3:1, but you're never good here live, due to the fact that players rarely bluff, esp. on the river with a (although highly dubious) flush draw on board. The betsize is so small because most live players don't know how much is in the pot, and most don't know how to use/understand pot odds.
03-02-2011 , 02:09 PM
Snap call. Also, I certainly wouldn't call the Q the worst card in the deck, given the action.
03-02-2011 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Rob Jr.
Betsizing in a live game is totally different from an online game, and 1/2 live isn't equal to it's online counterpart. Sure you're getting >3:1, but you're never good here live, due to the fact that players rarely bluff, esp. on the river with a (although highly dubious) flush draw on board. The betsize is so small because most live players don't know how much is in the pot, and most don't know how to use/understand pot odds.
I see players bluff here with all sorts of crap all the time, or shove QT because they hit a Q, or QJ because it improved, or have 55 that they slowplayed. this is definitely a call; the only hand you should really be worried about is is T8 and it definitely doesn't make up 80% of his range
03-02-2011 , 11:17 PM
id fold, he's never bluffing here
03-02-2011 , 11:32 PM
I'd call and then call the dealer a **** when he showed me his hand

Last edited by AlligatorBloodFTW; 03-02-2011 at 11:33 PM. Reason: j/k I'd lol and say "That's poker folks" and then lol some more
03-02-2011 , 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockrollins
Snap call. Also, I certainly wouldn't call the Q the worst card in the deck, given the action.
This

Quote:
Originally Posted by xplore111
he's never bluffing here
You're right, he's just value betting worse
03-03-2011 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bpk616
This



You're right, he's just value betting worse
definitely not, he knows we have set and is trying to milk us like a fool, gotta know when to fold'em.
03-03-2011 , 02:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xplore111
definitely not, he knows we have set and is trying to milk us like a fool, gotta know when to fold'em.
this has to be a level
03-03-2011 , 03:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
this has to be a level
Of course it's a level, random posts a hand where it's obvious he was bad beat, then asks if he can fold super top of his range hand so he doesn't lose to the nizzles one time!!@
03-03-2011 , 03:15 AM
i'm never sure with you
03-03-2011 , 03:34 AM
cant read all that text
03-03-2011 , 04:02 AM
did anybody mention 55? cause this is exactly how a million typical live players would play 55 here. slowplay, slowplay, shove river. for similar reasoning J9 is possible. i expect to see QJ here the most though. also not shocked to see QT or something similarly dumb cause they hit toppest pair and are just like "well lol i cant fold top pair if he bets so i might as well shove." snapcalling

      
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