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It's either bet 60$, call a shove or c/c. Both options are fine, but I prefer c/c.


Reasons for betting:

1. BTN might fold a hand like AJ.

2. We have good pot equity.

3. If we bet and someone calls, it sets up for a more profitable river bet.

Reasons aginst betting:

1. BTN range is very strong. If we bet, we're forced to call a shove and get it in with like 35% equity.

2. The fish is rarely folding a pair. Ironiclly he's going to play perfectly aginst our range if we bet. Think about it.







Reasons for checking:

1. We have great equity so we can basiclly profitably call almost any bet.

2. BTN rarely bets anything weaker than a set or 2pair so we'd be getting that freecard pritty often.

Reaons aginst checking:

1. We let BTN see a showdown with AJ, which he might have folded to a bet.

2. The pot is on averege going to be smaller if we hit.

Doesn't matter how you play it. In these situations I think its important to mess with people (open ship, minbet/3b, call and hope to backraise ai, typing "I have QQ and open shipping, typing "I have aa and open shipping", typing I have KT and open shipping")

Nope, we shouldn't base this decision on what we have to do if we're shoved on. If this bet is +ev disregarding a river shove/call then it's +ev if we have to call off (because the call is +ev or we wouldn't be priced in).

I think that c/c is the best line here.

My main reason for this is that we have to get through two oppoents with our bet on the turn. Although we have shown big strength i can't see btn villain folding enough of the time here to make betting profitable.

The other is also not to forget completely about UTG donk, he could actually have something as well.

I check, i think we'll probably get a free card here or be in a spot to call the turn bet.

If we raise 99% of out stack pre with 72o, and somebody shoves, it's EV to call but in fact we've got our entire stack in with like 18% equity. Same thing applies here.

Just reread it. Yeah, if we belive our bet is going to be +EV, and it's going to be +EV for us to call his shove, then sure it's certinly gonna be +EV. But is it the most profitable line?

Ok.

C/C is definately the best line here. You have a hand with lots of potential here but it's still only a draw. My thinking is I'd want to see the river as cheaply as possible at this point. The pot is big enough that doubling up here is a real possibility even without a turn bet. The only real upside a bet here has is that it might force the player behind you to lay down NFD and TPGK. The downside is they are such a small percentage of his range. He shows up here with sets quite often and invariably hes going to raise the turn with it forcing you to call for stacks with a draw that you could have seen for only one bet.

Right but the -ev part is getting 99% of our stack in pre with 72o. And say we knew for some reason that if we put 99% of our stack in pre villain will fold 99% after he 4-bet pre (but if we shove or bet less he will call) then that makes it +ev. It's not putting in the last 1% that's -ev, it's the first action. And if that first action is +ev we should be doing it, not worrying that it forces us to commit our stack. See what I'm saying?

And to your last statement when people shove all-in, most of the time we only have the option to call or fold. Since folding is defined as 0ev, if calling is +ev then yes it is the most profitable line. Now if you think checking is more +ev than betting you have a point but like in this HH saying that the reason we don't bet is we might have to commit our stack is just kinda backwards.

Semi-Bluff to set up river shove seems to be in order.

And if we are planning on check - calling, shouldnt we just bet! That queen is not going to give BTN more confidence if he is holding an overpair and we are betting out.

FYP.

It's profitable, but it doesn't have to be the most profitable line. I think it boils down to how strong we think BTN is. If we belive he has a strong range, we should c/c, and if we belive his range is range is weaker, we should bet. The fish complicates things though, and that's why I think c/c > bet/(call?)

Imo the most important part here is wether or not BTN is capable of slowplaying sets/2p(unlikely) on a pretty damn drawheavy flop 3ways trying to get the fish in for one more bet, cose he still will have to raise blank turns when we 2barrel and fish will fold a lot unless he improves with his draw... I guess if you hadn`t seen him slowplaying in this type of spot before, i like a semibluff bet of ~60$ here a lot, great barrel card vs fish (he folds a lot + he calls some, which is fine given we have ~35% to improve, and reg probably folds his most likely AJ KJs to this bet)... just imo
obv C/C can`t be bad as well, and its close, but i would lean towards agression in this type of a spot.. Another great thing about betting is BTN can have better Acx which he would probably fold to turn a bet a lot..

this is really important. i mean, fishie can call profitably with 65o here and hes doing great.
i lean on the side of check/calling. if button has sets, maybe 6-8 combos are actually likely, were going to have to spike with 30% equity. same with JQs and overs(4-5 combos total realistically) he rarely has a J in his hand, which he might possibly check, an error in our favor.

sure, betting gets him to fold his 9 combos of Axcc (if hes any good) but more combos of his have us crushed than we can fold out. factor in the addition of UTG+1 calling with almost anything and i feel that a bet here is just spewy. obv. c/c is profitable, and if button has sets/overpairs and the 9d comes were getting his stack on our terms, maybe UTG+1s stack too.

Just skimmed this thread I've noticed that ATC/Hurt destroyed it (as usual).

Betting this turn is just wasting our PE imo, BTN has us crushed and is just trying to milk UTG+1 along

you have odds for seing his $77 bet with JJ, check-call.

awkward stacks with someone behind who most likely isn't folding = check imo

I like c/c since you have relative position. Betting's only good if you have like 1/3 fe and it's not clear to me that BOTH players will fold that often (if you have a read then small bet may be ok). Button will define his hand and you'll be getting almost direct odds to call. And you may still be able to get stacks in if the fish decides to stab at the river.

the good news is you have a monster draw and button never has 2 pair + because there are a lot of draws out and he would have raised.

the bad news is you dont have a made hand and you have around 0% fold equity.

i think i like check/call then giving up on river if you miss.