200NL live: 2 pair, tough river decision
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,266
I apologize in advance -- hopefully this isn't a tl;dr post. 1-2 NL 9 handed at Caesars in AC. Game seems to be loose/passive, with mostly older guys. I just sat down maybe 10 minutes ago and this was the second hand i played at that table (my first hand i raised in the CO with A10s and it was folded around to the BB who 3bet me and i folded). Villain is a 25-year-old black guy and has been limp/calling a lot, isn't really talking to anybody, and appears to be a little frustrated that he's not winning pots.
He has ~$170 and i cover. UTG + 1 limps, villain limps, 1 other player limps, SB folds, and i check in the BB with K6o, so there are 4 players to the flop. Flop comes K86 rainbow. I bet out $10 and everyone calls. Turn is an offsuit J. I bet $40 into the $48 pot. When the action gets to villain, he thinks for about 4 seconds and calls. Everyone else folds... River is a Q, so the board is K86JQ. Should I have shoved and tried to get thin value from a hand like KT/K9? Given stack sizes, bet/fold is not an option imo. Anyway, I decide to check to him. He hesitates for a second, silently slides his stack into the pot, and looks up and away from the table at the TVs. He briefly glances at me when I ask the dealer for a count and then looks away again. It's about $115 to me. Call or fold? I just realized my hand is basically a bluff catcher because i think two pair ships the turn and a pair of kings takes the cheap showdown, so his range is polarized towards air/set/straight/KQ. His line doesn't make much sense, but the only hands i really beat are 97 and 57 -- i can see him floating the flop and turn with T9 and rivering a straight.
Comments on turn and river would be much appreciated.
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 6,510
I think he wants you to think he's strong by over-emphasizing looking at the TV and avoiding contact with you, but live tells vary and that should only be a small factor in your decision.
The "don't go broke in a limped pot" theorem might apply here.
I really think his range is polarized also to 9T, KJ, KQ to busted draws/air. He might even be tri-polar here and shoving K9, KT into you and is praying for a fold or a chop - but you noted he is loose/passive so that seems like a weird move given your read. We can weight the thin v-bet in his range, but I think it deserves much less weight than other possible hands because his perception of you is probably not insane/capable of double-barreling weaker hands into a large field.
I don't know about shoving the river because the only hands that call us are hands we beat and we might have been able to induce a bluff-shove or a thin v-bet shove from a hand we can actually beat.
Checking the river seems to be the best option, where you go from there is tough given his action.
Does anyone think we should bet $50/fold on this river (even though he would be effectively min-raising us so that puts us again in a bad spot).
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 69
Generally speaking, live cash game 1/2 NL players in touristy areas like Vegas or AC are kind of fishy, unless you are playing the locals in the daytime games. So it should not be unexpected to see them overplay something like top pair. The other clue is you mentioned villian was getting frustrated since he was not winning any pots. Did you see any of his showdown hands relative to the betting action and pot size? This may help you determine if he is a solid or weak player.
Anyways, I like your play on the flop, turn, AND river. Your check induces a bluff or may instill false confidence that his one pair holding is best. I think you rule out 9T here because maybe he calls the flop with a gutshot due to the other caller and implied odds, but should give it up even with a turned double gutter facing a huge turn bet. You also are viewing all of the possibilites that can beat your hand and not also factoring what you can beat: 68, J8, busted draw, K-weak kicker, even AK (yes, some 1/2 live players do limp with this and AQs in EP).
Considering the money already in the pot after the turn and his remaining stack size and also the fact that you decided to take the weird line of pot betting on flop, turn, and then checking river (may appear to be an Ace-high or busted draw bluff), this has to be an insta-call. If he had K8 KJ KQ or a set then so be it ... he played his hand to perfection and trapped you and it was a cooler.
The idea of block betting river and folding to a shove for just another $50 or $60 is ridiculous since you are pot committed to making the call with a very strong hand.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,266
thanks for the replies. given that there's only a PSB left on the river, i think bet/folding is pretty bad. i honestly thought my hand was a bluff catcher, but then i realized that the reason i checked was to induce a bet from a weaker hand so i could snap it off. also, he was a moron so i thought he could've been shoving with a wider range.
i called and he mucked. i was very close to folding though