gosh, sick spot, never overbetting here as a bluff (esp nits) but he can be getting tricky and valueowning himslef here with 44 or AK, an KJ iis allmost never in nits range there. Thus you`re only beat by JJ and 1 combo of KK. would like to hear more oppinions on this one
i mean this hand is unusual and all but it's pretty easy to break down:
- he's probably never bluffing as most people don't feel the need to bet like 8x the pot when they bluff
- he's probably not doing this with worse for value
therefore, the only question is how often is he misclicking? you need him to be misclicking/spazzing a little under 50% of the time here. you have poor pot odds. fold.
JJ really fits nit betting here. I raise utg. You probably don't have a king so I bet because I don't want to give you a free A or Q. Wow, a J, now I've got you. Don't want to lose you with AQ. Check. River. Now I want to make sure I get paid. You will call with QT or a king.
That being said, I doubt I would ever fold this. I would have to have some examples from this specific villian pushing the river in my notes. Or at least, to see how he played AK flopping K-K-x, or something like that, before. Some sort of evidence that shows he plays like the above paragraph.
Call - Villain also has 99. (Insert Pokerstars5Aces.Jpeg here) /Thread
But Srsly, I can't see villain over-shoving stacks w/o a nut hand here. That would be one hell of a misclick. Seems like hes trying to get you on some other level thinking that huge overbet=bluff, when this is the stone cold nutz. Lolz and Fold.