UTG: 32/28/4.8 LAG with 38% EP VPIP over 118 hands
MP2: 13/11/3 standard TAG over few k hands
Villain CO: 21/15 (no reg) with 13% 3bet and 27% squezze but only 50hands.

history with villain he was halfstacking at the beginning he called my openraise with T8s on BTN has flopped Top2 and crucked my overpair.
Maybe he is thinking I am on tilt against him...


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($208)
BB ($189)
UTG ($259)
UTG+1 ($102)
Hero ($209)
MP1 ($75.90)
MP2 ($184)
MP3 ($215)
CO ($204)
BTN ($179)

Dealt to Hero A Q

UTG raises to $6, fold, Hero calls $6, fold, MP2 calls $6, fold, CO raises to $35, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $209 (AI), fold,
CO....

looks good

What range of hands do you assign to the CO? And how do you think he will react w/ each part of his range?

This seems like a fairly straight forward algebra problem.

martink1 doesn't **** with math

Min 4bet for information

it looks like co has a prety easy decission now

looks fine to me as well

I make 3b preflop to 20$

:-(

I too like making huge overbet bluffs against fish that are showing tons of strength and think I might be on tilt.

Nice hand.

Against his calling range I am in bad shape I guess...But close to even with some foldequity against his whole CO- squezze range

calling range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,232,208 games 0.140 secs 330,230,057 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.222% 33.18% 05.04% 15341766 2328933.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 61.778% 56.74% 05.04% 26232576 2328933.00 { TT+, AQs }

squezze range (maybe add to this some random suited connectors):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

71,916,768 games 0.141 secs 510,047,999 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.540% 39.89% 03.65% 28688988 2623347.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 56.460% 52.81% 03.65% 37981086 2623347.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs }

Why do you only have AQs in his calling range, but not AK?

This is why a bot based on Bayes theorem would get killed.

O M G. Guy cbets 100% based on a 3 hands sample and now he shows up with tpgk when I call him down? Madness!

uppps sorry mistake

so his calling range now:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

77,053,680 games 0.203 secs 379,574,778 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.822% 28.17% 09.65% 21705783 7437604.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 62.178% 52.53% 09.65% 40472688 7437604.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

small sample but your line is sound, looking at it, it's not a play i make often but against a cas who is active as he seems i must say i like.

your calling range for an overbet shove like that seems wide to me, but assuming that's correct, you have almost half the problem done.

Just need to determine how often he needs to fold to make this an +Ev play (or at least break even).