Villain is 17/13/3ish with fold to cbet og like 60/0/55 street by street


Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $57.10
SB: $102.00
BB: $96.00
Hero (UTG): $105.50
UTG+1: $79.65
UTG+2: $246.70
MP1: $214.00
MP2: $100.00
CO: $110.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP1 calls $3, 4 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 8 2 T (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.50, MP1 calls $6.50, BB calls $6.50

Turn: ($29.00) A (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $21.00, MP1 calls $21, BB folds

River: ($71.00) 5 (2 players) Hero?

Just over a PSB left here. Should we be betting larger on the turn for value?

shoveshoveshove

45$/fold?

Yeah let's put 75% of our stack in and then fold, especially since we definitely can't beat anything he'd raise with

Yeah, I was torn between 38/call and just shove, but the more I think about it, the more I like shoving..the only issue is that the range I think we're most concerned about getting value from here (TT/22/88 or some weird 55) would most likely have raised the flop if not the turn.

RE: I knew with your thread title you'd level somebody into thinking b/f is the right river line.

meh shove.
also think your betsizing is good throughout.

Bet the river. Don't shove, $45 is good.

When villain shoves, I mean I'm sick enough to fold when it's correct and sick enough to call when that's correct, but until you get as good as me, you should just cry variance and call.

b/f is terrible. I hope you're leveling.

lol - I mean some percentage of the time villain will have made a flush and I think I can fold during those specific times and call the other one's.

Are you a superuser?

I like betting $40-$45'ish because like RapidEvolution pointed out, villain prolly doesn't have 2pair/set hand here given that he hadn't raised us at any point. So, I'd like to get value from the few made hands in his range if possible. The other thing is that I think QJ is a pretty likely holding here (J9 notsomuch), and I want to give him that one last chance to spew bluff shove his missed draws. I guess I might even bet less to give him the illusion of fold-equity and to make it much more likely to get a call from JJ/AT. That's just me though, he might have a set and we'd be missing tons of value.

betting super small hoping to induce spaz shove can also work well

It's either this or shove for me.

that is pretty damn sexy imo. However, if that's our thinking, then is top set just a bluff-catcher here?

Bleh, you're actually beat here really really often. I legitimately think c/f might be best, but again, this is one of those Superman plays that I never really make in the heat of the moment.

just noticed hero has As... changes lots of stuff... but shoving is still terrible (wtf would be represent but sets (minus 22 maybe) and flushes anyway?)
40$/fold (for 35$ more) seems good

i was thinking betting small to induce spaz shoves..but then again would villain bother shoving with sets/2-pair on this river anyways?.. wouldn't he just call??

c/f seems good, if he had a medium made hand calling the turn barrel on the scare card, theres prob not too much value betting
draws, mostly good fd;s can call flop and turn

dont think he's value betting much on the river that we beat other than maybe AT

bump, any more thoughts?

Spent a lot of time thinking about this and I think that 22/fold is probably gonna be the best line here. We can still get some value from ATs, AQ or some stubborn KK hand, but for him to bluff this river after I've opened UTG, and 3barreled seems highly unlikely. Maybe it's just because I think c/fing this river is a superhuman feat and if we had 88 or TT here, I feel like we'd be shoving here with no prob (though the difference [aside from there being more Ax hands in his range] eludes me). If we rule out sets (given the lack of a raise anywhere) and think about the flat (as opposed to raise) on the flop, the only thing I can think of here is KQss (strong enough to call flop, but doesn't want to get in against a UTG range that cbet 2 villains, picks up a gutter on the turn). Anything else I can put him on?