Villian is a solid reg who is on the tight side. Running 13/10/2.9 with a 3.6% 3b, and a 5% 3b in the sb over 2.2K hands.
Anyways I think this is a fold on the river. He never bluffs and never value bets worse IMO. Thoughts on all aspects of the hand are appreciated as well.

FWIW villian SNAP jammed over my river bet.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $112.60
MP1: $56.85
MP2: $30.10
Hero (CO): $194.45
BTN: $158.00
SB: $279.20
BB: $112.45
UTG: $308.30
UTG+1: $70.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 3 3
5 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($21.00) 3 Q 7 (2 players)
SB bets $14, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49.00) T (2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $30

River: ($109.00) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $86, SB raises to $225.20 all in, Hero says "gues I just got set under setted 200 bb's deep. lovely", Hero ???

btw for those of you who don't want to do the math, it was $55 to call.

i think not raising the flop is a mistake

Yeah, you don't really beat anything and he is never gonna bluff giving you those odds. I probably don't have the discipline to fold a set getting like 6:1 though.

fold preflop he is not just 3betting premium hands and it's going to be too difficult to play postflop if u don't hit a set

on the river bet a lot smaller like 55 or 60 i dont think his aces/kings can stand the heat of your bet and yes fold if he shoves

also if we raise this flop it puts him in a tough spot with AA 200bb deep and he could find a fold somewhere i prefer to let him valueown himself

at what stack depth (if ever) do you advocate a call?

i never would call here unless the villian is a complete nit preflop and/or postflop (allows us to get to showdown easily)

I wold look at his "fold to raise stat" and if it is low, i would raise flop. You called 33 to 3bet due to implied odds and your 200bb stacks, the only way I see to continue is to get a set and make your stack double. 5% 3bet on SB is rather low, mostly he has a hand.
Raise flop is the way to play on your stack.

River is only turbofold, no other options.

Calling the 3bet preflop with ~200bb stacks, nearly 30:1 implied odds and position seems fairly standard to me unless you think Villain has a massive skill-edge on you.

I like raising the flop because that is the street where AA/KK is most likely to continue vs aggression and it sets up bigger turn/river action. When 200bb deep with a flopped monster you need to start building the pot as quickly as possible, rather than waiting for later streets when Villain can pot control and/or get away from his big hands. If you think Villain folds too much to your flop raise and you're worried about scaring him off, then you should probably start raising more flops.

On the river, if you're going to make a bet that gives you 6:1 odds to call off the rest of your stack, and then want to fold, then you're going wrong somewhere.

+1

Preflop call is super duper standard.

Raising flop is good but if we're not then we definitely need to be c/r'ing turn.

big hand, bit pot, big action, 200bbs deep.

if you are going to setmine 33 here and flop a set on this kind of board you have to raise it here. You have made a huge hand and want to build a big pot; if villain is comptetent to fold AA/KK sometimes on flop/turn/river then raising turn might be a bit better because you'd get another bet out of him. In this hand, it just seems like he's slowplaying QQ and actually does a good job of it. Because he is solid I would assume he might play top set like this.

As played, fold river, also maybe bet a bit smaller on river if you are planning on folding to a shove. no shame in b/f if you plan for it ahead of time and bet size accordingly

Seems standard except the river bet, which is too large.

Idk why people want to raise flop. Look at his c-bet sizing. If he bets a comprable percentage of the pot on the turn (which he did), we're looking at a $100+ pot going to the river, and we didn't have to make a single bet.

Thanks guys, just wanted to make sure I wasn't insane for folding a set getting 6:1.

I elected not to raise the flop because I really don't see KK/AA continuing past the turn if I do. I believe that with this villain that I get more money from him value towning himself/bluff catching rivers with KK/AA. It also gives him a chance to bluff some turns(although the likelihood of this is quite low given villian, even tho my flop calling range is pretty weak overall, I just think he is unlikely to barrel). Calling also gives him a chance to catch a pair if he has a hand like AK.

As for the river sizing I feel that the extra money I gain from making it $80-90 outweighs the amount I lose by getting more folds, if that makes sense.

I just like raising teh flops...

I think I meant turn, 13/10 is betting KK+ on the turn a lot

dont raise flop, raise turn


and wtf at folding pre.... dam nitring...

I never understood how people calculate implied odds. Doesn't 30:1 implied odds suggest that he commits his stack 100% of the time with a worse hand?

I don't like raising the flop, this pot is gonna get real big anyway, we've got position, and want to at least give him a chance to double barrel air/weaker hands that he might fold to a flop raise.

Ideally

are we jamming over the river bet if he was to bet normally, like say 70? I feel like having called preflop with 33 for 10bb with the sole intention of set mining (as we have no reads about bluffing) and not getting in the entire stack and getting in only ~125bb with villian putting the money in is bad.

so raise flop. raising turn is a NONO as it lets him get away from his hand easily.

as played bet smaller on the river and fold.

I would raise flop instead of turn.

This is the dilemma. You get an extra bet out of him, but villain can justify folding turn with ease bc of how unbalanced hero is at this point. Raising the flop will rarely induce mega spew, but it also gives you room to check back the turn and bomb the river, playing your hand very very deceptively (and puzzling) despite not getting in your whole stack. The negative is you eliminate the possibility of future street barreling from Villain with air, but you're almost always getting called by AA if you raise, check, bomb.

I think calling the turn, tho seemingly false, sets up a much easier c/f on the river.

This is a CO vs SB battle....so of all times to make a hero call this is it. Obviously you're more likely than ever to see spazy play here. Even a nit is going to man up and realize you have a wide opening range here. Extra 2% 3-betting in blinds vs. other positions shows he's making some moves. You've said you have these stats but never mentioned specific history with villain and sample size. For you to be folding at $400 pot with only <14% left to put in, this is pretty critical info. Secondly, I've looked people up who have much tighter 3-bet % than this guy in spots like this and seen some random junk in steal vs blind spots like this. So two pair combos are not totally unimaginable.

Additionally are you telling us you haven't seen this type of line dozens of times with KK vs AA? A certain % of the time he is playing AA like this since why wouldn't you flat KK with position to get extra action from a re-steal? Besides KK, you've really under repped your hand and played it like AQ, JJ, QK, ect. I mean it's unlikely to hit the case Q if he has QQQ, but it does happen. So it makes sense for him to go for a check raise on river to get max value if he has KK and feels like you're committed with those hands......which you are.

Anyway, long winded way of saying it's not a turbo fold. He has to have QQQ over 86% of the time here for you to take a slight loss overall. Even if he has QQQ or much less likely TTT/999/777 over 90% of the time, you're still only at a small ev loss getting 6:1 odds. You've under repped your hand, committed yourself and its a LP steal where you're not getting a ton of credit.

If you'd bet less on river, the odds change and you can find a fold...but set mining a 3-bet, spiking, under repping, then folding to the last 14% of a 400 pot, is just wrong. If villain is "solid" then you should not be able to read him as 777+ >86% of the time.

^^

It would take extensive history to determine that villain deems hero being unable to hand read/being committed with worse than KK after he makes a valubet so big on the end. If there were conceivable 2pairs in villains range we could play the call game but it's such an awful spot currently.

I agree, history with villain is huge, in such a close decision, which is why a couple people replying "turbo" fold without that info is making me shake my head. I just can't find a fold here, never mind a "turbo fold". If he is a "solid" reg his 5% 3-bet is probably polarized in the blinds to defend vs. steals (KK-AA/AK with a balance of TQs, 72, A5s, K5s ect). So two pairs are not out of the question IMHO.

Yes he has QQ prob 80% + here and that feels like 100% when you're losing 200BB, but if it needs to be 87% QQQ for us to lose money on this call and even then the G-bucks lost are small. I'm really ruling out 777/TTT since "solid" regs tend to a more polarized 3-betting range and most don't merge like that. I would dare to even suggest he could have AA or 2p here more than 20% of the time 80% or less QQQ. I hate life when I make this call but I still do it barring a very specific read and extensive history with villain.