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100NL TT flop set and run into brutal turn card 100NL TT flop set and run into brutal turn card

03-16-2011 , 07:07 PM
Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $109.95
CO: $40.00
BTN: $136.25
SB: $103.85
BB: $102.65
UTG: $54.30
UTG+1: $113.15
UTG+2: $65.90
MP1: $33.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with T T
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 9 T A (3 players)
UTG+2 bets $6.00, Hero raises to $19, BTN calls $19, UTG+2 calls $13

Turn: ($70.50) 8 (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero ??????????????????????????

Spoiler:
Hero checks, BTN bets $50.00, UTG+2 folds, Hero ????????????????????


UTG2 - 24/15/0 on 96 hands.
BTN - 18/10/2 on 382 hands.
03-16-2011 , 07:38 PM
I think you get it in...
Even if he had shoved and even his range was absolutely 100% flushes and straights, your redraw outs and the price would make it pretty close... but throw in 99 and you're clearly getting it in correctly, any other surprises are an added bonus.
03-16-2011 , 07:45 PM
so what then...just shove the turn at first opportunity?
03-16-2011 , 07:50 PM
3way to the turn, your hand is 100% toast here. I'm not sure if you have the right price to draw to a boat if you jam here and get called. I start turn off with a check, BTN will play honest here, you get to see a free river against UTG+2 potentially better hand, and EVEN if you somehow still have the best hand you can still get value on the river if necessary.
03-16-2011 , 08:01 PM
Check here, call if the odds are favourable to boat up (assuming BTN bets). Be nice if BTN bet and fish called.
03-16-2011 , 08:14 PM
I'm not sure about openshove vs c/shove, would like to hear other views but I was thinking more about the spoiler decision tbh. Merely calling the $50 bet seems pretty pointless imo since UTG+2 has already folded, we surely become committed and the only time the remaining $ possibly doesn't go in is when we are ahead.

Last edited by AbsolutCam; 03-16-2011 at 08:19 PM.
03-16-2011 , 08:29 PM
Looked at spoiler. I think I fold this. I feel pretty comfortable he doesnt take this line with 99. I think its mostly likely the flush and we dont have the odds to draw. Shoving here has about 0 fold equity and I think we are behind the vast majority of his range.
03-16-2011 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metellus
Looked at spoiler. I think I fold this. I feel pretty comfortable he doesnt take this line with 99. I think its mostly likely the flush and we dont have the odds to draw. Shoving here has about 0 fold equity and I think we are behind the vast majority of his range.
This was pretty much what I thought, but I guess I was super tilted at that turn card and jammed anyway.

Spoiler:
Villain had 99
03-16-2011 , 08:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Metellus
...we dont have the odds to draw.
We have about 35% equity against the likely broadway / SC / SG flushes + all QJs. We have about 50% equity if you include 99 or anything else. We really can't be priced out here unless villain is a robot from the planet Nit and even then its close.

      
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