100NL TT flop set and run into brutal turn card - Small Stakes Full Ring Games

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100NL TT flop set and run into brutal turn card

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03-16-2011 , 07:07 PM

rizeagainst

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,179

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $109.95
CO: $40.00
BTN: $136.25
SB: $103.85
BB: $102.65
UTG: $54.30
UTG+1: $113.15
UTG+2: $65.90
MP1: $33.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with T

2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 9

(3 players)
UTG+2 bets $6.00, Hero raises to $19, BTN calls $19, UTG+2 calls $13

Turn: ($70.50) 8

(3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero ??????????????????????????

Spoiler:

UTG2 - 24/15/0 on 96 hands.
BTN - 18/10/2 on 382 hands.

03-16-2011 , 07:38 PM

AbsolutCam

adept

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,098

I think you get it in...
Even if he had shoved and even his range was absolutely 100% flushes and straights, your redraw outs and the price would make it pretty close... but throw in 99 and you're clearly getting it in correctly, any other surprises are an added bonus.

03-16-2011 , 07:45 PM

rizeagainst

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,179

so what then...just shove the turn at first opportunity?

03-16-2011 , 07:50 PM

Gary_Neville

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,959

3way to the turn, your hand is 100% toast here. I'm not sure if you have the right price to draw to a boat if you jam here and get called. I start turn off with a check, BTN will play honest here, you get to see a free river against UTG+2 potentially better hand, and EVEN if you somehow still have the best hand you can still get value on the river if necessary.

03-16-2011 , 08:01 PM

Metellus

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,910

Check here, call if the odds are favourable to boat up (assuming BTN bets). Be nice if BTN bet and fish called.

03-16-2011 , 08:14 PM

AbsolutCam

adept

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,098

I'm not sure about openshove vs c/shove, would like to hear other views but I was thinking more about the spoiler decision tbh. Merely calling the $50 bet seems pretty pointless imo since UTG+2 has already folded, we surely become committed and the only time the remaining $ possibly doesn't go in is when we are ahead.

Last edited by AbsolutCam; 03-16-2011 at 08:19 PM.

03-16-2011 , 08:29 PM

Metellus

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,910

Looked at spoiler. I think I fold this. I feel pretty comfortable he doesnt take this line with 99. I think its mostly likely the flush and we dont have the odds to draw. Shoving here has about 0 fold equity and I think we are behind the vast majority of his range.

03-16-2011 , 08:33 PM

rizeagainst

banned

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 8,179

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metellus

This was pretty much what I thought, but I guess I was super tilted at that turn card and jammed anyway.

Spoiler:

03-16-2011 , 08:35 PM

AbsolutCam

adept

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,098

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metellus

...we dont have the odds to draw.

We have about 35% equity against the likely broadway / SC / SG flushes + all QJs. We have about 50% equity if you include 99 or anything else. We really can't be priced out here unless villain is a robot from the planet Nit and even then its close.

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