Villain is 46/6, folds to 80% of bets post flop.
I'm running 13/13.

Thoughts on all streets are appriciated.

Flop: It looks like he's given up, so I take a stab.
Turn: I now have 2pair, I bet for value and protection. I certinly don't want an 8, 9, K or A to come up.
River: I was torn between calling and raising. Ended up raising though.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $115.50
BB: $72.65
UTG: $16.40
UTG+1: $20.95
UTG+2: $18.50
Hero (MP1): $125.80
MP2: $37.50
CO: $99.00
BTN: $20.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with T Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($10.50) 6 J T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($20.50) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

River: ($40.50) T (2 players)
BB bets $30 Hero raises to 60$

what's tricky about this hand? i'd check flop but this is played fine except that your turn bet size sucks.

Something like 14$ - 15$ or do you want to bet even more? And you'd raise river?

Who would not raise river here? Four combos of QQ-JJ vs sixteen combos of AK and untold number of other worse hands he calls with?

The most interesting thing about this hand is what would happen if he c/red the turn. That would be a tough spot, especially had you bet more and it was a 2:1 dealy.

Would he check/call AK on the flop? He folds to 80% of cbets. Would he not donk on the turn with a made straight? Wouldn't he at least check/raise turn? Dunno, it doesn't completely fit the action.

No fish would ever even contemplate folding AK on this flop for a full PSB much less a 40% pot bet.

EDIT: Also, you've done this in like every other thread you've posted, so I have to ask, how many hands do you have on Villain? You can't make such huge extrapolations based on unconverged stats. Most fish of this nature will not be around for more than 100 or so hands, a sample size in which "Fold to c-bet" is only beginning to become slightly meaningful.

It was over 100 hands.

Fair enough. Still, other than the distinct possibility that you lost the hand to JJ, I don't see why it would be hard for you to accept this river raise as anything but correct. Four combos you lose to. One mirron you don't.

Even if you take the fact that it would be an odd line for AK (and really only about as odd as this line is for JJ), you could only use that to DOWNWEIGHT AK, because I don't think anyone would argue that his line completely rules out AK 100%. So even quarter weighting it, that is, removing 75% of the Ace Kings from his range, it's still +EV to shove river.

Yeah, so that was pritty much my conclusion as well and that's why I ended up raising river. Wasn't sure 'bout it though.

flop bet: betting becuz he seems to have given up + protection? why does he bet JJ,TT or even overpairs on that board? if he cr are you calling? so you put him on AK, but half psb gives AK all the odds it needs to draw out on you.


turn bet: TT+, AK vs QT on 6JTQr is meh.. he probably called with his entire range because he puts you on AK.

river..: nh. although I think he blocks the river with AA, KK a little less than this, and probably leads the flop with them both too. so its either JJ,TT,QQ,AK. so we are fine vs that range to raise it up.

AK isn't getting odds to hit on the turn, he's getting 3:1 and has 20% chance to hit

Board: 2c 6h Js Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.545% 79.55% 00.00% 35 0.00 { QsTs }
Hand 1: 20.455% 20.45% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AhKc }

Unless Sweden is playing on UB villain know his excact holding so hardly a valid stove.

$15 turn and then you have ~ potsize stack on the river.

not sure what you're getting at with this post. someone said betting 1/2 pot on the flop gives AK "all the odds it needs to draw out" and this stove shows it doesn't?

Should you not look at it from a range point of view though? What odds will is villain getting with AK against our range for calling a 3bet then 1/2 pot donking a flop?

ok now im confused. err how does our range matter? a 47/3 doesn't even know the meaning of the word range. anyway i think you totally misunderstood me. i wasn't stoving ranges at all, nor was i using pokerstove to determine the best course of action. someone simply said we are giving great odds to AK specifically and i used stove to show that that is probably not correct (AK has ~20% equity per street).