(auto-reload stopped working I know).

Small sample, villain seems like a bit of a station. Should this be a standard raise on the river considering that the flush got there? I'm worried that I'm probably never good if villain shoves over my raise and don't really know what the best option is here since I don't think raise/fold is one of them.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: $104.50
MP2: $109.75
CO: $101.00
Hero (BTN): $98.50
SB: $100.50
BB: $104.85
UTG: $117.85
UTG+1: $109.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 9 9
5 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) A A K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50

Turn: ($13.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.50, BB calls $8.50

River: ($30.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero???

... raise?! if we're working on principle villain 3 bets AK + KK preflop then there's nothing to worry about unless the guy is like 4/0 after 500 hands. Def raise and snap shove (only hand you can really be worried about here is A9... and its just such a tiny range). In face i think shove all in, not raise.

+1

k thanks that's what I was thinking, except for the shove part, I see the value in shoving vs raising now - I assume it's because anything that calls a raise calls a shove.

Any comments on me doubling this board? At the time I was thinking:
a) get value from draws.
b) retain control of the hand so he will check a blank river to me which is good since I have showdown value.

i don't like the double barell. rest all is said fine as above.

if he calls that board he is not foldign anything to dobule barell and is not bluffing you with worse that he called the flop with on a scare card.

(at worst villian will turn a K into a bluff). so its spew.

don't like the turn bet, shove river

Perfecto

I think I just raise to like $46-$48, rather than $83.5. It's not true that anything that calls a raise calls a shove.

what calls 46-48 and not 83.5, a random 7high flush? the value you get from all the trips A / Q and J high flush / very rare 66 will make up for it

nah seriously, i think shove is much more +ev here... i think the difference in hand values that he'll call a raise and not call the shove is really really narrow, if there is any at all.

Actually, I agree to some extent with Amph1tryons in that you should try to avoid the psychological barrier of all-in but $47 misses too much value. I would go $66.

maybe its just my viewpoint, but whenever i see someone making a river raise and leaving just a little bit behind they have some sick ****. not that AI river raises aren't often the same exact thing, but i think leaving $20 behind says "let me size this justtttt right so you call me" as opposed to the AI bet that kind of says "im going to show my bluff when you fold because it makes my e-penis bigger" maybe its just me tho

Any flush and any A, which is basically his range.

I know villain is prob not a reg, but there are so few regs who would b/c a shove on this river with hands like AT or QTss. I think a lot of regs would bet/call a smaller raise with flushes - esp if they are near nut.

Personally, if I somehow got to the river like this with Ax or a flushdraw, I would b/f it like always, but I might 2nd guess myself and call if villain CiB.

IMO, the pot is just a little too small to make a value shove.

At 400nl, when someone raises the river and leaves $20 effective behind it will almost always be a mistake. At 100nl, $20 not so much.

Assume villain always has worse, let's say he has a flush. How often is he b/c a shove (his bet is $18, the shove is to $83.5) it's like a 4.6x raise? I'm guessing it's like 10%. How often is he b/c a slightly more than min-raise, like a 2.5x raise? I think like 40%.

So, on the shove, 65.5*0.1 = $6.55. On the min-ish raise, 28*0.4 = $11.2.

I mean, obviously, you can disagree with my estimates on how often he's calling but just try your own guesses and I think you'll at least somewhat change your mind - don't cheat though if you claim that villain will b/c a shove with a flush a ton more, then he will b/c a min-ish raise a ton more also, i.e. if you think villain will b/c a shove like 50%, then IMO he's always calling a min-ish raise.

I agree with a few people here. The turn bet doesn't really accomplish much and can really get you into some trouble. I recommend shutting down the turn and then shoving on that river. It really disguises your hand well.

maybe im pushing the idea of a river shove because its the play i would make when i have a hand like this. but then again, i would also bet larger on the flop and turn, making the shove much closer to a PSB.
OP also said that villain is a station, which makes me tend to believe that hes calling river shove much more than 10%. stations with QTss are neverrrr folding to the river shove after they call 2 streets with their draw and then donked the river. neither is the station with Ax most of the time.