100NL Fold AA in 3bet pot?
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,932
Sorry about the lack of HH.
Villain hasn't done anything special and has been running 28/5/1 at the table over 90ish hands and hasn't been noticeably stealing, imo. Though I normally run between 10/8 and 14/10, I've been running around 23/20 at this table for some reason. Admittedly, I wasn't totally aware of how spewy I might look during the hand, but I'm not sure how deep that pushes this hand into the "call" category.
Hero is in BB with $217.00
Villain is in MP2 with $115.00
Folds to villain who raises to $5
Hero 3bets to 15 from the BB with AA,
villain calls $10.
Flop: $30.50 Kc, Qd, 5h
I figured villain's raising range here was something like 99+AQ+, but I wasn't sure how much of that he was calling a 3bet with. Once this flop comes out, my plan is pretty much to play it passive as I doubt I'm getting any value from TT or JJ and he doesn't seem aggro enough to make a multi-street bluff.
Hero checks
Villain bets $20, Hero calls
Turn: $70.50 3s
Hero checks, villain shoves.
How often do we think villain is shoving AK here, given my 3bet pre and flop call? I feel like this call is either BE or slightly +EV and that's considering that I was running like a maniac (if villain was paying attention). At the time, I was stuck in my "I'm playing nitty since I'm running bad mode, so this is KK/QQ more than 70% of the time."
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,889
If you're running like a maniac, bet, bet, bet and call. Lead 25+ and get it in. 90 hand sample isn't nearly enough to know his pf range.
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 9,370
Given how you're playing, I'm making it $20 to go preflop. Minor thing, but I wanted to say it.
I'm felting, but not real thrilled with it. While the guys around 30/5 do tend to play passive (broadly), they also tend to over value top pair type hands. Here, I think it's highly possible he's doing that.