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100NL: easy flop fold? 100NL: easy flop fold?

10-23-2009 , 02:21 PM
Villain is 17.3/9.4/2.6, wtsd 28, over 127 hands. fold bb to steal 80%. No other reads or history up to this point. Don't have any 3-bet stats.

My image should be tag, 14/12 or so. I probably fold to 3-bets too light for 100nl.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $20
BTN: $101.40
SB: $130.35
BB: $95.50
UTG: $104.75
UTG+1: $100
MP1: $100.40
Hero (MP2): $100

UTG+1 posts $1
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG folds, UTG+1 checks, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, SB raises to $14, 2 folds, Hero calls $9

Fold is too weak, but I think a 4-bet allows him to play perfectly against me. Anyone 4-bet here, or ok to just call in position?

Flop: ($30) K 8 A (2 Players)
SB bets $20, Hero calls $20

I think a call is terrible here, I don't think I have any fold equity, and on another heart I probably won't get payed off. Easy fold?

Turn: ($70) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $72, Hero ???

As played, another easy fold?

He did 3-bet me again a little later, maybe making a case for 4-betting if I had had that history at the time?

Comments on all streets welcome...
10-24-2009 , 12:24 AM
I wouldn't raise so big in the first place. If you hadn't raised so big the pot would be smaller. Of course, you might want a bigger pot with a different flop. Just my opinion that sticking to 3XBB is for the best. As played, I don't think you can just flat the flop. You have to either shove or fold. That's really your choice though. You're most probably definitely behind, so if you want to shove it in on a draw, then do it. Don't just call though. That's awful. Clearly you have to fold the turn now.
10-24-2009 , 01:20 AM
I don't have any problem with it PF, with an UTG+1 blind poster you should raise more so I think thats fine. Calling the raise is best imo also, QQ is to strong to fold in position and pushing it is to aggressive.

On the flop I would just fold, its tempting to call with the nut flush draw but he probably has AA/KK/AK more towards AK here. Either way, and even if his hand is not this strong, you really can't expect many implied odds if you hit.

As played the turn is insta-fold. He has fired twice on a scary board.
10-24-2009 , 06:03 AM
I don't think we can shove flop because, as stated before, we don't really have any fold equity. I don't think we get paid often enough to make the flop a call.

Also, if you're going to play 100NL regularly, I would definitely consider adding a 3b stat. Makes spots like this a lot easier.
10-24-2009 , 08:08 AM
I would be just as inclined to 4 bet early vs a villian....
Hand would of cost you the same amount of money, and you would of possibly folded him preflop, which is fine.
As it is, folding the turn.
10-24-2009 , 09:32 AM
I definitely fold turn as played.

I wouldn't completely rule-out shoving the flop. Obviously this depends a lot on villains 3-betting range.

For example, if we say villain is 3betting ~5% from the blinds, which is reasonable for NL100 vs a MP raise, we get

Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  39,600  games     0.078 secs   507,692  games/sec

Board: Kh 8h Ah
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	47.795%  	46.86% 	00.93% 	         18558 	      369.00   { QhQs }
Hand 1: 	52.205%  	51.27% 	00.93% 	         20304 	      369.00   { JJ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo-AJo, KQo }

But if he's a 17/9 then he's probably a bit nittier about 3-betting. So if he's a tight 3-bettor then we're crushed and it's probably better to fold flop.

Code:
Board: Kh 8h Ah
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	35.192%  	35.19% 	00.00% 	          5226 	        0.00   { QhQs }
Hand 1: 	64.808%  	64.81% 	00.00% 	          9624 	        0.00   { KK+, AKs, AKo }
10-24-2009 , 11:31 AM
As played you have to fold the turn, PF raise size is fine, nothing wrong with it at all, no point in making this 3x with an UTG poster.

I would have 4 bet and gotten it all in preflop
10-24-2009 , 01:07 PM
errr

fold or shove preflop

eeeeeeeeeeerrrrrr

anyone folding the flop??
i mean do you really think we have implied odds? do you think if a heart comes on the turn he is going to pay us with what?? he is betting the turn like 100% of the time so we dont have pot odds...
10-24-2009 , 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 80kilos
errr

fold or shove preflop

eeeeeeeeeeerrrrrr

anyone folding the flop??
i mean do you really think we have implied odds? do you think if a heart comes on the turn he is going to pay us with what?? he is betting the turn like 100% of the time so we dont have pot odds...
I fold the flop. Yes you might get paid on the turn if you make your flush and he has a set and wants to see if the board pairs, but I think I pick a better spot and fold flop.
10-24-2009 , 07:13 PM
I definately fold turn. May even fold flop

      
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