Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $119.00
BTN: $100.00
SB: $100.50
BB: $100.00
UTG: $113.40
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $40.00
MP2: $55.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 7 7
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, BTN calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12.50) 7 8 T (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8, BB raises to $30.50, UTG+1 folds, Hero needs a plan....

Opener is standard 13/10 tag reg.
BTN is 18/14, agg 3.3, 24% call flop cbet, 10% raise flop cbet over 1.7k.
BB is 19/14 agg 2.2, 61% call flop cbet, 12% raise flop cbet over 2k.

Both these guys used to be winners but have been b/e for a while.

Looking for input on what you do here, and why.... don't just reply "shove" or "fold" or whatever pls.

You bet into 3 villains, got called, and he's raising even though he had a nice price for draws. He doesn't seem aggro. Btn can be a problem some % of the time as well when he got cute with his call. Think you're more often WB, less often SA, so I dont mind a fold. 2011 poker sucks.

I am not sure what your question is. This is a simple (though somewhat time consuming) case of ignoring Bu (no one is flatting anything that beats your set 4w on such a wet board, unless he has some freak J9cc or something), attributing a couple of sensible ranges for the BB and and calculating your equity in the pot now and if you get it in. I am not going to do this exercise for you, but I would be very surprised if this was not an EV+ shove after the analysis.

I'm going to get it in here. BB could have hands like 10-8, 8-7 that he's raising for value. He could have combo draws/pair+draw hands like 10-9, 10c-Jc, Ac-Jc that he feels have huge equity right now, but lose value on brick turns.

Obviously, I don't like the snug stats from BB, but even a 12% raise c-bet is going to have a lot of semi-bluffs on this board.

Do you think BB raises 2 pair in this spot? he has to, right? He can't give 3 opponents a free shot to draw out on him.

i think we should ban set folding threads. not because OP should or should not fold a set here, but because it's bad for the games.

Just because something is +EV doesn't mean it's the most +EV move.

plzzz more on this super wet flop,
think flop is a fold

If the two options are raising or folding (as given by you and as seems sensible), and raising is EV+, than it is the most EV+ route as folding is obviously EV0.

Btw, I did play around with a few ranges in the underground on my iphone and it is closer than I thought. we have 50%-55% equity against a reasonable villain raising range. Against a getting it in range of any set, any straight, any two pair, any straight & flush combo and any pair & flush combo (ie. T9cc, JTcc, QTcc, ATcc) we have 38% equity. If we include some straight draw & pair combos our equity goes up. Given fold equity and dead money, raising is still clearly EV+.

I didn't say those were the only two options. We can also call, which would be a difficult way to play the hand, but possibly more EV than shoving.

I'm not even sure that a shove is going to be +EV, it's going to be close at best. BB's range for getting it in is going to be heavily weighted to big combo draws and better sets and I can't see us having better than 40% against it, although we do have a small amount of fold equity which combined with the dead money would still probably just about make it profitable. We can't write off BTN either though and we have to factor in that he will get all-in with us a non-insignificant amount of the time.

=p Is one of them me?

Nah it wasn't (your Stars sn = 2p2 sn right?) but I think that statement could apply to about 90% of regs at 100nl these days.

all in

All in and make button fold 88

Just for you I downloaded pokerstove and this is me being super lenient with his range.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.794% 17.44% 01.36% 1381 107.50 { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 81.206% 79.85% 01.36% 6324 107.50 { TT, 88, JcTc, Tc9c, 8d7d, 8h7h }


I think its a pretty clear fold

somehow you included all the 78s that are not possible (we have 7d and 7h) and did not include the 78ss, also pretty weird to not include a single NFD, only 2 semibluffs, and no real bluffs - ie. if i were BB i think it's a decent squeeze spot with QJss since BTN's range should be weak, you rep supreme strength, and have tons of good turns if called.

Flop is 4 way. BB has definitely a wide calling range here pre.

Considering flop is 4 way, BB shoulnt have a lot of FE vs 4 players, we have to expect him to have less bluffs in his range. I guess, our equity in this spot vs BB's raising range should be around 35% depending on different parameters.

We would need a little above 40% equity in this hand to be EV+

obv its pretty close either way
personally i think BB will be more nutted here than hurt does, probably more nutted than this range below, and this also doesnt account for the times that the meh BTN got cute with top set or J9s which is definitely possible

Board: 7c 8c Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.714% 39.60% 01.11% 5489 154.00 { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 59.286% 58.17% 01.11% 8063 154.00 { TT, 88, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac6c, KcJc, QcJc, Tc9c, 87s }

i didn't really argue for a wide range, just said it's weird to include 2 draws only on the drawiest board ever and that it isn't unfathomable for him to be raising even weak semibluffs like QJss, though i'd expect most people not to.

i think your range is good, probably add some J9s. it's not that helpful though because it can easily be a little tighter or a little wider (biggest question is how many draws does he raise) which would make or break it between shove and fold. it's probably really close either way honestly.

just don't call.

I totally agree with the last 2 comments. This is very close here.

Personally, when I do the maths, I feel we are closer to a fold than a call here, but honestly, I feel I have a hard time folding here when playing.

yeah absolutely, forgot this

stop trying to be cute. folding is 0 EV

I think people forget that we do have FE making re/raising certainly EV+

What do you mean? I was referring to the fact that there are more than two options. Raising might be +EV, so might calling. Whether they are positive or negative, one is going to be more +EV than the other.

i wouldn't count on much FE. he now only needs better than 30% equity to call our shove, most of the likely semibluffs are going to be priced in. actually may possibly fold out the bottom of his value range (2pairs), which we don't want.