Folds around to button villain who is 16/13/3.2 with 42% steal rate over 500+ hands

sb folds, I am bb with AcQs
I elect to raise to 14 and he calls.
Does anyone smooth call here? That seems crazy, but I'm open to suggestions.

Flop is Ad 7d 7c

What's our line? Betting here seems to fold out weak hands but seems mandatory as well, as I bet this flop after 3-betting like almost always. If he raises do we get it in? (I prob would against this guy's stats, but have no reads)

Suppose we check and he bets 20?
Suppose we both check and the turn is like Kd giving us no kicker and no draw - what's our bet here, if any?


EDIT: Sorry guys, we are 150 bb deep. Pot is 28 on flop if you need math help.

Id still c-bet the flop here like you said.
What size game is this? Im assuming .50/1 by the size of your 3 bet. If not, 3 bet more preflop.

LOL I'm such a mess with my first attempt to post hands here. I missed that button raised to 4 - then I made it 14. Yea this is .50/1. OK yea, I see why we use hand converters.

How much do you c-bet a flop like this? Will you do the same bet size and always bet regardless of your holding once you've 3-bet?

There is nothing wrong with his 3 bet size here

What is your image?

I usually wont 3-bet a player with those stats here with AQ. If I 3-bet him I'll have absolute rags OR AA-QQ. With marginal hands such as AQ, which are miles ahead of his range, I take a flop. This is because villains calling range of your 3-bet is probably JJ+AK+ meaning if you hit and get action you are probably in trouble. The best you could hope for is when you fold out AK with a cbet on a rag board.

In essence you turn AQ into a bit of a bluff so if you are going to do that you might as well do it with 25o so that you have no qualms about folding if you can't win it pre or on the flop with a cbet.

However, when flat calling AQ you can't just 'fit and fold' as you'd lose a lot of money this way. If you hit generally you should play cautiously. You also have to bluff villain a fair bit in order to make the hand profitable.

As played a bet would be very bad as he'll often fold out all hands you beat, will seldom/never have AJ and will never fold AK. Check to him and I'd probably check a turn quite often as well - in doing so KK-JJ will probably call a half pot river bet.

I like your thinking ace.
in actuality:
I checked flop to get a bet from him, but he checked
Turn was actually the K d
I checked turn and he checked
River was a 4th diamond
I checked and he bet. I mean. Without reads I just folded. He bet like 17.

Edit: Image is tag. He probably knows I'm capable of 3-betting light.

Geeez, bet somewhere! Bet the flop... maybe bet the turn. Barring that, just take the $14 off the table, giftwrap it and hand it to villain next time.

Your thinking about checking the flop is bad in a 3-bet pot. If you had called preflop, I can see checking to induce... but he isn't likely to bet many worse hands than yours here. If he has TT/JJ he's almost never betting and, honestly, those types of hands are the biggest part of his range once he calls your 3bet. How you play in 3bet pots is really going to have a huge effect on your long-term results and winrates. This is a great example of how NOT to play in 3bet pots.

I know I know. There are so many different ways to play this hand. But I thought I had him basically drawing very thin on the flop with no chance of calling, only pulling an elaborate bluff. I am playing pot control as I don't think villain ever fires 3 barrels and 2 barrels not very often but I am ready to call 2.
I think I should be betting this turn more often but I really think it's the worst card for my hand and I really don't want to build a big pot and get raised. Against a loose passive player I'll definitely bet any turn and sometimes bet the flop.
But when the diamond comes on the river I just want to give up on the hand. I mean... can you really call this bet or make a bet on the river after checking 2 streets. My only option is check/call and that just seems like a worse option.

I might have bet the turn just for fear of what happened (a 4th diamond). Checking the flop is super standard. I'd say I check this 65% of the time and bet it 35% to keep it a little unpredictable. If your default play is to cbet this flop with AQ type hands you are making a big mistake. If cybrpunk doesn't believe me then I suggest you ask about it on the 6-max forum where there are a lot of regs with loads of 3-bet pot experience (you need it at 6max, trust me!!). The will agree with me I'm sure.

AK i bet on this flop far more regularly and that is because even players with these stats can't help but call with AQ/AQs sometimes preflop and I want to ensure I stack them if they have it. He NEVER has AJ though so you can't bet AQ for value since there is no hand that can legitimately call. Betting AQ is purely for metagame.

I check this flop the majority of the time, it goes with my plans because I just do not cbet as much as other people here. I bet the turn though because there's no reason to think he will bet and to protect our hand in this semi large pot.

who is villain?

i agree that you are often turning AQ PF into a bluff in these situations (if he calls). but at NL 100 people just call 3/bets way too loosely and c/f too often on the flop.

in either case, playing AQ OOP to me is even harder/more difficult than turning AQ into a "bluff".

In a button vs. blind situation against somebody who steals 42% he knows he's going to get played back at alot therefore calling lighter so this raise preflop is for value. If we b/f the flop then our hand is a bluff on the flop which is alot of the reason I don't bet this flop.

He may have a high steal but at 16/13/3.2 I think he probably knows enough about poker to realize that flat calling AJ strength hands in a major spew. I don't see how you can say there is much value really. I mean this flop is pretty much the best we could hope for and can you honestly say if you were hero made a cbet and got put AI you'd be happy about calling. I really don't think you'll ever see AJ here.

I disagree with your logic here. If the villain is truely stealing blinds at 42%(probably even more from the button), and folding everything except JJ+, AK, there's a huge and exploitable gap between his raising and calling 3-bet ranges. The best way to do it is 3-bet just about ATC imo, since you'd be taking down $5 every time. I haven't really met a player with this large of a gap, but if I did I'd absolutely 3-bet AQ, and play cautiously the 5% of the time he called the 3-bet.

ehafner, you half agree with me. You realize that you can 3-bet this guy with ATC and I agree 100% with that. Just pound on his CO/BTN raising range. However, I personally feel that with marginal hand the safer and more profitable option is to take a flop and AQ is very much in the marginal camp.

Villain is Blue JP fwiw. I think he just gets a little frisky in position as he plays 30+% from the button but considerably less than 10% from early positions though not a huge sample. It will be hard to play these hands like AQ postflop if I miss without the lead and I feel like 3-betting a lot against this guy from the blinds will lead to some tough spots. I'll have to investigate his range for calling in these spots against aggressive defenders.

Does anyone have any info/ reads/ more stats on this guy?

1121 hands with him and he plays 16/11 from the button and 8/8 utg. Attempt to steal 20.00%. Looked through a few of his big hands and he seems very spewy with weak draws.