BB is running 30 / 11 / 4 over 400 hands
UTG is running 33 / 14 / 2.5 over 181 hands

I'm running a super nitty 9 / 6 / 2 over the 30 hands I've played at this table


Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP1: $142.25
Hero (MP2): $90
CO: $345.75
BTN: $97
SB: $99
BB: $143.85
UTG: $152.30
UTG+1: $111.80

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, BB calls $7, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($24.50) J 3 2 (3 Players)
BB bets $24.50, UTG raises to $49, Hero ?

Results wise, I made the right decision, but looking back on it now, I think it was -EV and I'd change it now if I could.

Id give it up here, those stats dont look too bad from them
They both look like pairs to me from the pre action

somebody has JJ

I basically used up my whole time bank trying to put together the BB's hand because I was 90% sure I had UTG beat. If UTG hit a set, why the hell would he raise? Makes zero sense.

On the other hand, if the BB hit a set, I think his play is very smart. By betting out, he's got a chance to stack both of us.

Shove.

They can easily have a slowplayed KK or something.

QQ it becomes a fold imo.

Oh dear god please get this **** in

BB has QQ and the other douche has AJ

I'd never fold here. They suck and we have an SPR of < 4.

I agree that douchebag 1 has a badly played KK or QQ--nothing else makes sense. And I agree that douchebag 2 would bet out the pot with AJ.

My decision basically came down to whether or not I think douchebag 2 would call $8 from the big blind with AJ.

shove

sorry you lost to a set? get it in who cares its AA

Shove and feel good about it.

Okay, thanks all for the advice. I agree.

The fact that I saved myself $80 makes me feel a little better, but the truth is, I made the wrong play. I should have shoved.

Easy shove, utg rarely raises a set here, if BB has a set its good for him.

+1.

It is highly unlikely that the pot-sized donkbet is a set and the raise can easily be AA-JJ and you only fear one hand in that range. Furthermore, as a jack has popped up KK-QQ are more likely in combination terms. I'm jamming all in here but with KK I'd be less sure and as Sabr42 says QQ is in the muck.

As an aside I personally like to 3b more preflop even when someone has opened with a min-raise. A lot of min-raisors do so to start to build a pot and to see a lot of flops fairly cheap but with initiative. When I elect to 3b them I try to take their advantage away from them by making it proportionally quite expensive and fully removing the initiative from them.

FYI folding is never - or + EV. It's 0EV as you expect to gain or lose no more. However, I think there is general agreement that shoving would have been +EV in which case it is a preferential line to folding.

Okay everyones saying this is any easy stackoff, is this because these particular villains are likely to stack off on TP?

I can't speak for everyone, but I still don't think it's an easy decision. I'm not going to beat myself up for not shoving because I think it's very close. I think KK is a laydown here. Yeah, our SPR is low, but against two villian's who are interested and no possible draws on the board, this isn't an easy spot.

I guess I lean now more toward a shove because the more I think about it, someone who enters the pot 30% of the time isn't going to fold his BB when he's got AJ--esspecially AJs. And if that's in his range, that's the hand he is going to bet 100% of the time on that flop.