I'm hoping we can help each other out here.


Since becoming involved with poker, I've become really interested in the variance in golf. The variance in golf is one of the aspects of the game that makes it so exciting and frustrating. In my mind the better we can understand the natural variation in the game, the better we can impact the part of that variation that we can, like getting better at reading lies with a chip shot and knowing how to adjust for it. I'm convinced that if more new golfers understood the variability in golf they would improve much faster. Just as in poker, because they don't understand all the dynamic factors in the game, a lot of frustration can force bad habits in technique and slow learning and performance.

So I'm trying to come up with a comprehensive list of variance in golf. In return I'll put together an article on it and post it here later.


The obvious:

*Wind
*Quality of the putting green (inconsistency in speed between green on the course, ball marks, bad hops, time of day that you play, etc)
*Quality of lie. Extreme example being a divot, but sometimes lie in fairway can be just below your feet or on a tin lie. In the rough you can get all kinds of different lies.
*Quality of bounces (off the tee a ball that "should" be in the fairway and bounce in the rough, hitting trees, etc)
*Consistency of Bunkers (those times where there's no sand but it looks like there is, foot prints, ball burring under lip, etc)

Maybe the not so obvious:

*The number of times in a round where you're in-between clubs - I have a theory that rounds where you have your best rounds, these rarely happen.

*Getting a read because your playing partner was putting on the same line. Getting to see the line definitely can help (call this positive variance - unless of course you're on the other side of it)

*Pace of Play

*The degree a golf course sets up to your game

*Standard Error of golf shots. Tiger's SE is around 5%, a 20 handicap has a SE around 25% - meaning that an average shot from 100yds is 7.5 feet from the hole (5yrd/2 b/c the flag is the middle) for Tiger, and 33ft for the 20. The implication of this concept for shot selection is amazing once you get into it.


What are some others?

Honestly I think you nailed them all, or at least the big ones, as well as some others I had never considered.

With that said I don't know how you can use knowledge of this data to "improve" your game. Basically you're slave to these things. I prefer not to think about it anyway, and almost never refer to something that happens to me on the course as "unlucky" because it goes both ways. Further, I can see how extensive analysis of this topic might get very frustrating when conducted by obsessive/compulsive types.

(As an aside, all of us have that guy in our regular group who is constantly the victim, always getting screwed by the course, he'd be scoring a lot better if only he could catch a break, etc., and moans about it all round. First of all, that's an unsavory way of behaving because it's blaming his poor play on something else. For example: he hits a ball into a bunker. It plugs. He bitches about it plugging. Well guess what champ, if you don't want your ball buried in a sand trap, try not hitting it there in the first place. Not to mention that people describing minute details of their round is about as exciting to those listening as bad beat poker stories. But I digrees.)

Perhaps I am wrong though and there is something to be gleaned by this.

temperature

i cannot hit constantly with long sleeves on.

Nice list.

However, I will add this. IMO, the list above lists out the factors that an individual must use to make a decision. Once you make your decision, (this is the biggest cause of variance) you still need to execute properly.

We can all make those decisions (i.e. ok, I have 150 yards to the pin, wind against me, I should take one club extra). However, you still need to put a good strike on the ball.

I think the biggest single most variance factor in golf is consistency.

You only mentioned wind, but not "weather."

Quality of the grounds crew is another one (how well holes are cut).

Pin positions (partly to do w/ grounds crew skill if they put them in STUPID spots): tough vs easy.

Layout of the course to your shot type (some par 3s are impossible if you hit a draw based on the tree line).

Tee placement (has to do w/ the layout...some tees are placed poorly that make it impossible to hit the shot shape you want).

You're buddy is spending more time bitching than doing something about it as you said, perhaps like taking a lesson. It could have something to do with the agressiveness of the shots that he's taking. Always going for tucked pins that sort of thing. There are definitely things that can be taken away from it, if nothing else, just as in poker to better understand what things you can impact or control, and what you can't.

Maybe we're talking about the same thing with consistency - calling it standard error. Just the natural inconsistency that exists with the quality of shot making. Or are you talking about something else?

This actually got me thinking of another on: Differences in physiology. Although harder to measure and definitely subtle, we are physiologically different from day to day. And you could throw in quality of sleep, muscle soreness or tightness as examples of this too. Sometimes my hands just feel different on the club and just can't get them to feel right. Its rare but I think that's an example of a physiological difference too.

Great points! Thanks!!

The parenthesized part of my post was really actually more of a tangent than anything. I think he knows that breaks even out in the end, it's just that he's our token "reverse sandbagger" who simply isn't as good as he wants us to believe and constantly cites getting screwed over by the course as the reason for him not scoring better. I find the whole thing mildly annoying so almost never try to complain about these things outside my control.

On the variance subject, I find it remarkable that I seem to always end with between 34 and 36 puts on a round when I count it. I have had 27 puts in a round once, onloy time I ever broke 30 puts a round. Remarkable since I rarely 3 put.

Other players in group.

Getting stuck with negative people who toss or throw clubs suck and can really disturb concentration.

Then there is Mr. Advice who just will not STFU and is one of the reasons I usually play with headphones / music on...

On the flip side, I had a co-worker who was the most positive thinker in the world and I typically enjoyed my best rounds playing with him.

Good point on who you're playing with...but there's more! I find that when I play w/ good players, I play much better. Almost like you're challenged to put your A-game on.

I remember playing w/ a high school buddy last year that I hadn't seen in a few years...I went on a -6 front nine TEAR. Even the first hole...par 3, he put it to 6'...'nice shot' I said...I put it to 1'! lol It kept going from there

Having fun w/ your playing partners helps too.

I think this is true, but for a different reason.
On the days that you're on, it's simple to take a little off, or add a few yards.
You can draw it in, cut it, choke up a bit, or stand a bit taller, turn your right foot inward or outward a bit, or a million other possible things to vary distance.

On the days your off, you're just searching.

One other thing on being in between clubs:
there is only approximately 13 yards between club distances.
That's 39 feet.
So if you cannot adjust in any form or fashion, just decide if you want your 19 and 1/2 foot putt to be short of the hole, or long.

Yup, basically, I decide which side of the hole would I rather risk missing. If I take the longer club, it's because I'm okay going 20-30' past...if it's the shorter club, it's because I can be up to 20yds short (if a miss-hit) and be okay.

The ways to get good scores are to capitalize on birdie holes and minimize all the other holes. Usually, IMO, when you're in between clubs it's not on birdie holes...so it's not that big of a deal so long as being in between won't lead to bogeys.

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but the playing pace of my own groups affects my play as well, not just a slow pace caused by groups in front of me.

I like to move at a pretty brisk pace (usually walk 18 in about 3hrs 30min. if not being held up), and I find I'm at my best when I'm playing at this pace. It tilts me to no end when I'm playing with some high hdcp-er friends who stroll casually to their ball, are never ready to play when it's their turn, fiddle with their glove, look for their ball for 15 minutes b/c they're too cheap to let a $3 ball go, etc.

When you are about to hit and Bob screams, "HOLE IN ONE!" and the like.

The head flies off your 6i on hole 1, and you have to hit soft 5's and hard 7's.

Crackheads yelling at you as they drive past the streetside green.

Missing on the high side of a severely sloped green, then somehow you hit a flop that stops short of the hole. Give it a little tap and its at the bottom of the green.

And a hole in one that hits your partner's ball then goes directly in the cup.

I think the interesting part is that reducing that last source of variation (SOV) IS what makes a golfer improve - where the other factors are more like poker - uncontrollable - like someone hitting a 2-outer on the river.

Plus, for the average golfer, that SOV will be a huge percentage of overall variance - probably over 90% - where for a pro, much smaller.

I don't think this affects amatures that much. It's mostly a mental thing. I'd also say that when you're striking it poorly you feel like you're between clubs more often.

Let's say there is 10 yard difference between clubs for you. And your yardage puts you right in the middle. You can still hit it to 15 feet without making any adjustments to your swing. That's a pretty good iron shot (for 99% of golfers, I would think).

The worst part of being in between clubs is the doubt it creates in your mind. I try to never adjust my iron swings. If I'm between clubs I make my best guess and try to put a driving range swing on it. A well struck shot with the wrong club (assuming it's the wrong club by a fraction of a club) is almost always better than a poorly struck shot with the right club.

I can see this being a bigger issue for pros who need to get it closer.

Good point DVN. I think the mental effects of being "in between" clubs has more to do with it than anything, and I always try and meddle with my swing and choke down or "take off a little bit" and more often than not it turns out to be a worse shot than if I had just hit the longer club nice and solid and went 15 feet over.

I feel like an ass. I totally forgot about this thread as I've been focusing a lot more on poker these days. I appreciate all the posts and promise that when I get back into working with golfers again, I'll post the article I said I would.

The biggest variance in golf or poker lies in that space between our ears.

The thing that gets me is when you do everything right and it ends up fail.

Two examples that happen often:

-I hit my PW 127 yards. I have 109 to the front of the green, 125 to the middle. Pin is on the middle. So it is probably 115 to the pin. Wind is right to left and I hit a natural draw. Hit the ball perfect, tracking at the hole, hits the wall in front of the green goes into the water, end up making a 50 foot putt for a triple bogey 6. Went from +3 thru 14 to +6 thru 15. I started to get really mad but I just kept repeating to myself that I hit a great shot, nothing I could do about it.

-How many times do you read a 10-20 foot putt, hit it perfectly and it doesn't go in. Some days they all go in, and some none of the do. Pure variance.

Well How well we "HIT" it is all speculative. Good players that are consistant ball strikers can carry water hazards becase thet have done it a million times. Varience comes from a 7000 yard course with 18 flags and 1(small) ball spread out all over the place.

posted in wrong thread

I've been working as a superintendent for quite a few years so I see the impact of the grounds crew on a daily basis. Bad pin locations drive me crazy, mainly because the complaint box ends up on my desk.

Different turf types can definitely affect the ball, a Poa green in the morning can end up being quite different in the afternoon. Adjusting from bent to bermuda is tough too.

Had a guy come in the shop a couple weeks ago saying his 7 iron was "a little off" I rolled my eyes and checked it in the loft/lie machine to see that the loft was only 1 degree shy of being a 6 iron.

Also add "hit hydro wires crossing course" and "sprinkler came on and hit me in the eye" to the list.