Take the 250th best golfer in the world, and give him the ability to automatically make every putt from inside 10 feet. He is aware that he now has this super power, and adjusts his strategy accordingly. Would he most likely become the best player in the world?

Intuition says yes, but shotlink data would help a lot with this.

Pretty good question.

I think its quite close though I'd lean towards yes. If he makes all of his 10 footers he's gaining quite a few strokes putting on every single round.

G-1 1.001
G-2 1.009
G-3 1.053
G-4 1.147
G-5 1.256
G-6 1.357
G-7 1.443
G-8 1.515
G-9 1.575
G-10 1.626

Here's everything inside 10 feet for average putts to hole out for a tour player. So he's gaining .62 shots on every 10 footer, that's going to add up fast. Then add in the fact that he's likely almost never 3 putting and he will be picking up fractions of shots on basically every putt he hits.

After looking at the numbers a little more I'm a bit more confident he would become the world #1.

Let's take the stats from current #1 Tiger Woods from 2013.

He averaged 10 attempts per round inside 5 feet making 97%, average of 1.03 putts. He averaged just under 3 attempts per round between 5 and 10 feet making just under 61%, average of 1.39 putts. 10*1.03+3*1.39 = 14.47 putts.

In your hypothetical the putting guru will of course average 13 putts, approximately 1.5 strokes difference. There might be some very minor differences here and there with attempts and strategy and what not, but basically the question is whether or not Tiger Woods is 1.5 strokes better per round counting everything outside 10 feet than #250.

Hopefully nobody laughs at my math.

A lot of times in tournaments they'll talk about a player in the 3rd or 4th round who has made every putt inside 10 feet for the week, think there's been a couple of instances where a player made every putt inside that distance for the entire week. And never were they running away with the tournament. So while it probably makes the player #1, in no way will he win every tournament.

BO

My gut says he'd be the best. It's a fine line between 1 and 250 to begin with. You're giving a guy who is already probably making a good living as a touring pro, and giving him a golf related superpower. I think it puts him over the top.

Think how much extra practice time he could allot to other areas of his game if he didn't have to grind on the <10 footers. About 50% of my time is on those putts. And probably another 20% on chipping, but that would almost be pointless to practice if you just need to get it within 10 feet. So I'd have 70% of my practice time wide open to spend on something else.

I don't know what the 250th ranked player in the world's practice routine breakdown is, but I'd think he'd also improve quite a bit on the rest of his game since he no longer has to practice that much short game stuff.

Great point. I think a lot of practice would be dedicated to short irons trying to dial in to 10 ft.
Also, this helps him take pretty aggressive lines on putts outside 10ft since he knows it's automatic as long as he doesn't blow it by more than 10 ft.

Well after looking at a few more things, most notably
- How strokes gained putting stats change when you remove all 3 putts
- And like BO, the number of putts hit from inside 10 feet on average

I am now on the other side of this and actually don't think its that close. Over the past 10 years Tiger has been almost 3 shots better per round than the average Tour player. I assume the 250th ranked player in the world would fall in the below average category but I'm not sure how big of a sample of players is used to say Tiger is 3 shots better than average.

Anyway, making all your putts inside 10 feet isn't cutting anywhere near 3 shots off your game per round if your the 250th ranked player in the world. So unless they change up their practice routine and become a much better ball striker I'd say they really don't have a shot.

Also, Tzwien, spending 50% of your practice time on putts inside 10 feet is a pretty big leak.

It's only 15 minutes a day

Knowing you're going to be making everything inside 10ft would bleed into every other aspect of your game. It would free up everything knowing you've got that skill of making those putts.

How many more putts does this guy make from outside ten feet because he can take a more confident line? That can't be more than half a stroke a round, right? I think that's probably high.

I guess, if he plays optimally, the other area we're not accounting for is how many more up-and-downs he makes specifically because of this margin of error. That is, there will be some chips where he doesn't have to be as aggressive/flirt with a ridge on the green in an attempt to get as close to the pin as possible. Again, this seems like a very marginal edge. Also the 250th ranked guy would have to guard against getting lazier on his approaches, I mean he still mostly needs to aim as close to the pin as possible so his misses are within 10 feet.

Thank you! Looks like nothing was settled but some great thoughts and analysis, guess it is very close and either one of us could be right in our view. Enjoy the rest of the Masters all

best by a good margin i'd say....

can't we just look at pga stats of putts made from 10 feet and under and subtract the slippage from his scoring average?... and 250th best golfer in the world could easily be a fairly well known accomplished young golfer...

2000th best golfer in the world might be more interesting......... or, i might be wrong in my initial assumption...

did some quick analysis and i'm pretty sure the player would be #1 in the world

pga players cluster around 14 putts per round under 10 feet. success rate i'd use for average is around 85%-87%... so 100% success would save between 1.8 to 2.0 strokes per round..

pga players vs. the field the players cluster around -1 to +1... best is sergio and DJ at +2.32 (+ being better).... so 1.8-2.0 is huge

so i'd assume the player would be #1 for 2 reasons beyond the 1.8-2.0 stroke statistical improvement: 1) knowing that he's 100% on 10 footers and under, he will be alot better at longer putts/shots; 2) as the season progresses, i'm guessing the top player being 2.32 strokes better than field will come way down (i guess i can just check last year).

i just assumed the 2.32 strokes better was per round, not per tourney. and it's judging players vs. the guys they played against so there's no real issues of what tourneys the guy played.

couldn't find exactly what i wanted in very quick search...

but it looks like best player is about 1.5 strokes better than field for entire year. unfortunately this is straight scoring average not vs. field.

i would say average pga player (#100) (or slightly worse #140) is about 250th best player in the world with european tour and web.com tour... and if he's 180th player in world, the difference between him and #250 is negligible.

good analysis.......... but no one is near 3 strokes better than field today.... the guy making every 10 foot putt can't challenge prime tiger, but prime tiger doesn't exist today.

Using Shot Link analysis, Tiger was 2.8 shots better than average in 2012 and very likely > 3 shots better in 2013.

Prime Tiger was closer to 4 shots clear of the field.

i guess i was thinking of today... of course, he's on the injured list but his form wasn't so great before that.

yes, tiger near his best is probably nicely ahead of the 250th player who makes every 10 footer

I think he'd easily be the best player in the world when you account for strategy adjustments. For example, if there's no distinction between a downhill sidewinder from 10-feet and a straight uphill 10-footer, you can attack more pins and not worry where you end up. Plus, let's say you miss by 11+ feet on the wrong side, you still just have to get it inside 10 feet to two putt.

In addition, this guy could make tough holes a lot easier with his magic ability. He could hit something shorter off the tee, keep it in the fairway, find the green and lag putt within 10 feet or miss and chip within 10 feet to get par. That takes so much mental pressure off.

This skill instantly gives him the most effective short game without even having to practice it much and the most aggressive iron game without having to worry about the downside.