How much variance is there in golf? - Golf and Golf Tournament Forum

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How much variance is there in golf?

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07-06-2009 , 04:12 PM

asdfasdf32

True Facts

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 13,155

Assuming a player is better by a certain number of strokes (you pick, I'm not nearly good enough to have a valid opinion on any of this) how often will the better player win (assuming no handicap)?

Secondly, if a scratch golfer is up against someone who is really a 10-handicap, but gets a 15-stroke handicap, how much of an advantage is this?

Lastly, is the standard deviation of golf very large? I would imagine it being huge for amateurs, but rather small for professionals. Match play would have less variance, right?

Thanks for satisfying the curiosity of this beginning golfer....

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07-06-2009 , 04:58 PM

matt85

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 999

Not in a position to add much maths based stuff to this discussion but I tend to be on the more 'erratic' of low/mid handicappers and my comp scores are seemingly always between 78-85 to give some indication...So not a huge amount of variance.

But, to give some indication...

I would say 6 handicapper beats a 10 handicapper like 80% of the time.

And with a 15 stroke handicap the 10 beats the scratch guy about the same c.80% of the time IMO.

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07-06-2009 , 06:39 PM

JTrout

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 3,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by matt85

And with a 15 stroke handicap the 10 beats the scratch guy about the same c.80% of the time IMO.

I would guess this estimate (80%) is high, given that:

the higher your handicap, the less often you play to it.
the higher handicap often is less strict about gimmees, rules infractions, etc...
the scratch golfer will more likely play well when it matters.

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07-06-2009 , 06:48 PM

bonds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 11,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdfasdf32

I have no idea if anyone's ever done the math on how often a player with an advantage of X strokes would win on average.

I'm guessing, but I don't think the guess of 80% for a 10-getting-15 versus scratch is that far off - that's almost a stroke a hole, and a 10 cap is fully capable of making a number of pars no matter what. I'll say 70%.

As for standard deviation, I must be on the extreme end of the variance curve, as a 9 index my scores this year range from 74 to 92.

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07-06-2009 , 07:07 PM

TripleH68

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 6,555

You might get bored trying to get through these links, but the general idea is... The golf handicap uses the ten best scores out of the last twenty. So not all 10.5 handicaps are created equal. Some shoot a wide range of scores while some shoot a more steady score. So just hearing that "Bill is a 10.5" doesn't necessarily tell you everything about his game.

http://thesandtrap.com/the_numbers_g...ide_bet_or_two

http://www.popeofslope.com/guidelines/anti.html

P.S. I also like what JTrout is saying. How many times has a new player shown up for your group and said "I am a 10 handicap," then shot 100? I have seen it especially when you inform the person that your group plays the ball down and does not allow the foot wedge, mulligan or gimmie.

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