“However, the choking estimates for players on winning teams may be biased slightly downward, as the shooters in those situations are slightly better than average (see Table 1) and we have evidence that better shooters are less likely to choke”
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Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
There is your answer to who is choking, the guys who are worse at free throws.
No, you’ve simply shown the obvious that half the population is better than the other half, and that on average a winning team is comprised of better players and ahead late in games. Shocking.
I want a specific single name that is choking. Since you clearly know that choking is going on, tell me who. All you’ve shown me here is that the losing team and overall losing teams shoot lower %’s down the stretch in tight games, again, shocking.
Unless the standings at the end of every season are the same I bet some of this can be explained away via…wait for it…VARIANCE! YAY!
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Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
I'm confused how you can use a statistical paper as proof that "choking" exists and then extrapolate that into the theory that "clutch" exists, but then turn around and discount a paper the proves "clutch" doesn't exist. Can you explain this for me?
I have 3 times already, you’ve even quoted it. I don’t discount that paper with regards to free throw shooting, I simply say the same data can’t point to an INDIVIDUAL player that is choking because the subsets of individual data is too small.
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Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
It's actually the exact opposite. The key here is to determine if you "finding" is even remotely significant before applying it to some sort of action.
That’s fine if you want to take no initiative toward finding new ideas, I on the other hand enjoy tackling hard concepts to solve for new ideas. We agree (at least I assume you do since you simply dodge the question) that there will never be enough data points for a specific player to determine if they are the ones choking or are potentially clutch. Thus you choose to sit around and simply think that the odds will just play out and take no action. I choose to try to solve the playing mindset and psychology behind those who exhibit traits of clutch.
You do what you want, and I’ll do what I want. Maybe I’m wasting my time, or maybe you’ll have to say “I was wrong” again in a couple years.
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Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp
Sick burn about a website I put together in a day. I only did it as a way to share a spreadsheet that users of this site requested without losing complete control of the sheet. Bravo.
You have no control over the spreadsheet anyway, it’s not like it is your IP.
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Originally Posted by offTopic
You guys are ~100% to ruin whatever thread you are participating in by arguing over things where you don't even agree ahead of time what you're arguing about, and typically only marginally related to the subject of the thread. I'd say that's pretty clutch.
This.
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Originally Posted by dinopoker
Caught up now, and have to say that despite the fact that I have tremendous respect for ship and even some for Bo when it comes to golf, both of y'all are getting owned by NXT.
I truly don’t see how I’m getting owned. We agree that there is not enough data at the minute to be considered significant, I’ve never once said this is iron clad fact (aside from the fact that low limit online poker is not the hardest game in poker). I however like to try to think of potential implications of the data we have (since it’s all we have) and ponder if my intuition could help myself or my player(s).
NXT then offered up some great MSNL expectations and somehow that derailed to; ship cares how NXT makes money, ship doesn’t understand that 10 tabling lower limits can yield more than playing live higher, and so on.
Where we differ is that instead of discounting it and not even considering the implications I choose to think about strategies for improving a player’s mental game.
So far that deep contemplation by me has yielded positive results for my stable of two…myself and Will.
I’ve got a few golf related projects I’m working on and trust me, they are somewhat game changing for the golf learning curve. There is some speculation based on my experience though so I doubt some of you will enjoy it.