Exactly my point...but Rickie hitting it dead straight over that green isn't really in the cards on 95% of his possible drives but as said earlier, just should have laid up one time there and won this tourney but matsuyama sacked up on 17, sacked up 18, and sacked up on playoff so gotta throw hi plenty of credit for some gutsy play late

It was not 95% to avoid the water with driver. There is long+left.

Up to that point Fowler had hit it in the water 7 times on #17, I'm guessing out of 24 tries.

Is this a trick question?

Originally Posted by ntnBO
I've been wrong before.

I meant it was 5% chance or less that he ends up in the lake straight over the green. Still up two shots up it should have been a lay up and he wins...this one is kinda on the caddie IMO. Get your guy off driver there no matter how much he's feeling it but I'm guessing he tried and Rickie said nope I'm going to smash driver right onto the center of the green (which is did just hit it too good)

Actually if he carried it 10 yards further (like Matsuyama) he would have been fine.

FWIW I only saw one player lay up on #17 (forgot who it was). But the play for Fowler was obviously a 200 yard layup for a SW second that would have put him at probably 90%+ win equity.

Like it or not, there's a very good reason why the PGA Tour doesn't include #16 as one of the playoff holes at Phoenix. It's basically a nothing hole tee to green as well as the people factor.

If Ricky can comfortably carry the bunker with 3W then that is the play. I wonder if he was trying to feather cut a driver favoring short and right and just flushed it. Regardless, he obviously does not play that hole well.

You know he hit a 3-wood in the playoff into the water left of the green, correct?

Lay-up in regulation was obvious correct play.

Yeah 3W is obviously not a "layup" in the traditional sense of a shot that has very low risk of getting in trouble, and leaves a short but full approach shot with high probability of success.

Their conversation on the tee was carrying that 265 yard bunker "comfortably", hence the driver, lol. And this from a guy who laid up on #15 235 out when 1 shot behind.

I wonder what team Fowler would have done with a 3 shot lead. I'm guessing probably the same thing. How many times these guys blow sizable leads with 1 or 2 holes remaining is really amazing.

3-wood was not the correct play for Rickie on the 71st hole. An iron was the right play.

So the result of one tee shot in a playoff is indicative of everything? Got it, great analysis. Awesome sample size. Results oriented thinking, etc.

So where is he supposed to lay up to? And then what's his play with the pin a few paces from the water? What's he supposed to lay up with? What number did he want for a second shot? How does he avoid the bunker(s)?

The play was to favor right and slightly short leaving an easy up and down for birdie. Even if he tugs it in the water left, it's still an easy up and down for par. Laying up brings 6 into the equation where that's basically impossible hitting 3-wood or driver.

There are holes where laying up brings in more issues than going for it, #12 at St. Andrews is a great example.

BO

i must say, not nitBO's best these past couple of days.

I'd bet a reasonable amount that Matsuyama was pleased when Fowler pulled out driver.

There is essentially zero trouble at 200 yards from the tee. The green is large and a SW approach 20 feet or so right is probably 98%+ not going in the water. A putt from 20 feet is going in 15% of the time, and a 3 putt is < 3%.

The hole is designed to penalize stray drives, exactly like what Fowler hit. And it is not an easy up and down from the drop areas, especially so with the Sunday pin.

I really don't get why players seem so programmed to play the same way with leads late in a tournament. These guys play super golf for 70 or 71 holes to build up huge win equity and they are still on the pedal as though it was Thursday willing to bring unnecessary risks into play.

He has good days? 😉

He had a pretty good day when he won 250 large on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire"

I had more of a problem back in 2010 (2011?) when Rickie decided to layup on the 15th.

Good to see Weir back this week...I know he wont contend but glad to hear he is pain free and now just needs the swing to catch up. For those that don't know he has been working extremely hard with Leadbetter.

I wonder whether Weir or Tiger makes more cuts this year?

Weir is pretty much getting in shape for the Champions at this point.

0=0 IMO

I think as much as anything, that the 17th tee is right next to the 10th green is a factor. That is the fourth playoff hole, as Johnny noted on the broadcast, come playoff time most of the drunkys have shuffled off to watch the Super Bowl and those that are left are the more hardcore (and likely less drunk) element.

If the 16th were added in to the playoff rotation after the 10th it would be over an hour since the last group had passed through and nobody would hang around the whole time just hoping it comes back around, particularly with all the concessions shutting down. But the "people factor" doesn't help as they may be more compelled to be obnoxious in that stadium environment. When that group came through in regulation I was pin high left and just before Fowler putted some clown over in the common folk bleachers yelled DON'T **** IT UP RICKIE. I notice that it wasn't edited out of the broadcast (I thought they had some sort of delay for these things) and it wasn't addressed by the crew. I recorded the putt with my phone - we were prop betting and a Fowler birdie would have made me some money - and it could be heard clear as day.

I'm fine with the current rotation, although wish they didn't play the 18th twice to start. At least they don't go 18-18-18-18-18-18-18 like some events.

Spieth is not a real human:

Pretty free money I got on him making more than Justin Thomas this year. Guy might win 5 majors this year.

At least 5 majors and 53 tournaments.

Someone's gonna 59 this week.