In the money of the WPB Circuit $580. About 55 people left. I have 129K at 6KBB, 1k ante. Avg stack 201K.

Literally first hand at new table. Middle-aged man with sunglasses and some sort of odd racing gear with about 280K stack makes it 18K in lowjack. I flat KQo in BB. Thought jamming here vs unknown with this profile too loose.

Flop Q54 rainbow. Check check.

Turn 3h bringing backdoor flush draw. I bet 25K. He calls.

River 3x. I bet 40K. He raises me all-in for 46K. My price is extremely good but is a random live villain bluffing enough in this spot for us to call?

I think he ~should be betting AQ otf, to get value from your (Qx) pre peels. I think your PoF line is fine, maybe bigger otr..prob click call now, we are losing to QQ, A3s-A2s? I feel like we are prob chopping a lot here too.

Doesn´t make much sense, but don´t think this is ever a bluff.

What's he really gonna have here besides full houses? Price is good but can't really think of a single hand we beat.

What are trying to do otr sizing down w/ less than psb behind vs unknown?
If you were inducing then you got it.

Generally it looks pretty safe texture vs random 3x opening range where I expect him to cbet A2s (if he ever has it), AQ and not opening many 55,44 w/ 3x from low-jack.

So I would expect his flop checkback range to contain lots of JJ-77, some AA and AK, maybe few KK.
When you block KK, QQ I tihnk you should be less interested in folding considering how wide his bluff range potenitally could have been compared to pretty narrow trap range on specific texture.
Unless he`s one of those who always has it but anyway you pbb better off if you jam river.

I hate your line and hate you

What was your logic behind the river bet sizing?

Also, NASCAR or F1? Pretty important imho.

Was trying to get weaker one pair hands to call.

F1, I think

I'd prolly just snap it in pre
River sucks & he prolly always has it but if he ever doesn't have it folding a prty big disaster. Guess u could flip a coin tbh

Such a gross line to take and put yourself in a difficult spot. I agree with ebet and would probably snap it in pf here, 22bb stack against 30bb stack. It isn't going to be a snap call for him with AQ even here and we flip with most pairs and he will fold out some of the smallest ones.

I think he has A6/A7hh here sometimes and other random heart draws. I doubt he has KQ/AQ very often actually as I would assume he would just rip it in on turn with those hands. Sometimes he will show up with the boat on the turn and I won't be surpised. I would click call though and expect to be good at least 25% of the time.

Bottom line here is that I don't see anyone bluffing for 6K more, ever. There's no way they can possibly expect you to fold to 6K more into a pot that has 120K+ into it.

I have to assume A3, A2 or maybe 33. I don't think it's AQ because I would've expected a pre-flop bet, don't think it's an overpair because I would've expected a raise on the turn with a heart draw on the board.

I would've maybe considered a 3bet to 45K preflop to try to take down the pot there with the idea I might be able to get someone off of a weak unsuited ace or small pair. If I get called I can snap shove on the vast, vast majority of boards and perhaps get a fold on the flop with an 84K bet. If villain comes over the top pre-flop I can maybe find a fold and keep 12-13BB to find another spot. That gives me multiple ways to take down the pot rather than shoving all-in to either pick up a relatively small pot or getting called by a range of hands I'm at best flipping with.

I could even see just doing a straight stop-and-go and call the 18K and shove on most flops that don't have an A.

But I can also be convinced an all-in is the better play, but at 22BB I think I have enough chips to try something other than auto-shoving.

Of course, I'm new to these boards so I might be way, way off.

@jpgiro - I assume OP meant 46k more not all in for 46k total

Well, then slap me upside the head.

Basically, I think the same rule applies. It doesn't feel like a bluff because he has to know you're priced in and are calling no matter what, so he assumes his set or straight are good.

So there's 90K in the pot OTR and you have 96K. I really don't like your sizing unless you already decided to call/fold before making it.

BTW vs. NASCAR this is a clear fold but vs. F-1 he could be leveling you or value betting worse.

Old guy 3Xing pf = TT/JJ plus AK/AQ lots.