Poker Stars $1000+$50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2000/t4000 Blinds + t400 - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pokerccini (BTN): t127472 M = 15.93
joe E scar (SB): t60630 M = 7.58
Godfatti (BB): t110717 M = 13.84
Aguskb (UTG): t184967 M = 23.12
AJKHoosier1 (CO): t485214 M = 60.65

Pre Flop: (t8000)
1 fold, AJKHoosier1 raises to t484814 all in, Pokerccini calls t127072 all in, 2 folds

Flop: (t262144) Q 4 J (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t262144) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t262144) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t262144
Pokerccini shows 8 8 (a pair of Eights)
AJKHoosier1 shows 4 4 (three of a kind, Fours)
AJKHoosier1 wins t262144

pls explain?

I really don't know what's to explain here... it's standard.

Three of a kind beats one purr.

Welcome to 2006.

He wasn't deep enough for this play IMO.

If consensus is that open shipping this spot with 4's is optimal I'm gonna have to change some things about the way I play cause while I'm sure it's +EV, I'd be pretty surprised if it's now considered optimal.

Oops, I misread the HH, at first I thought AJK was shipping it in from the SB and Pokerccini was in the BB. I am not quite as crazy about it now.

Massive 4/1 CL bullying a table (2nd already folded). Tough ........when to call...

unexploitable

stack is 4 to 1.

the button behind AJK has 32 bbs, BB has 28 bbs, and sb has 15 bbs... i dont care that hes good or whatever this is terrible from a risk/reward standpoint, and i also dont care about the ICM argument that he feels he can bully everybody bc they want to move up an extra spot... AND i dont care that its 'unexploitable', pokerccini pretty much did exploit him here, furthermore, there are probably 0 premium hands in his range here... just dont like it im sorry.

edit: If everyone had ~ 20 bbs it would be fine IMO

Hope you feel better,uhh?

Sorry I wasn´t implying it was not a call.I was saying his play is pretty much +EV,and I don´t think is bad at all.

I am calling with AQ+,88+. So for me is a CALL.

Crossposted from pocket5s:

"Pokerccini's call is worse than AJKs shove. Discuss."

yeah im just having a bad morning i dunno why im so mad, i still dont like it tho,

and respone to neverscaredb discussion question:

pokerccinis call i think is good because AJK never does this with JJ+ AK IMO so i think he was putting ajk on a range of 22-1010 and random broadway stuff, which we might be able to prove should still be a fold bc of ICM but he probobly felt that lower PPs were more weighted in his range as his shove looks exactly like the hand it is

Wasn't at the table (poor flipping skills), but I think the call is justifiable in a vacuum, maybe slightly -$EV against his range but it's hard to say, I think his range in this spot is very heavily weighted toward pairs smaller than 88.

no way ajk ever has even as big as 99 here. 77 is probably the nut top of his range here, and maybe AT or something in terms of unpaired hands.

Since I suck at ICM, I'm going to need a little help on this one. Would you mind please showing us how much chip equity Pokerccini needs against AJKs range to be break-even $ev?

Yeah, but it's a really easy fold if you know AJK has AT, so the issue is how many hands with 2 overs are in his range assuming (and I agree) that there are zero bigger pairs.

Without crunching the numbers myself:

In the P5s thread Jennifear posted a Nash Equilibrium generated by an online program. While that equilibrium isn't particularly relevant in its particulars since it assumed AJK was shoving his entire range which he definitely was not, we can deduce from it the % equity Pokerccini needs. The bottom of his calling range in that equilibrium, TT, had about 70% against AJK's equilibrium shoving range. At equilibrium Pokerccini will be pretty much breaking even with the worst hand in his range, so we can conclude that 70% is about right for his breakeven %. Jennifear posted that he needed 67-70%depending on the calling ranges behind, sounds about right to me.

this is really +EV 5handed? maybe there's a math problem somewhere i missed. i'm assuming the only reason it would be +ev would be due to it being a big FT and very tight calling ranges regardless of the effective stacks?

Yeah I saw that and ran the numbers myself last night through holdemresources, but I've heard from a few sources that it's less than reliable (for instance, the range it outputted when I ran the numbers had AJK shoving every queen but NO KINGS AT ALL). I understand this could just be an output error and it could have used Kx as an input, but...meh. Mostly I'm just banging my head against the ICM wall trying to stare at more calculations until they make sense.

Anyway, for those of you interested, the bottom of AJK's equilibrium shoving range here is 25s if hold 'em resources gets it right. That should give you an idea of how tight the players behind should be calling.

Is this the FT or 2 tables playing H4H? ICM doesn't acount for getting ICM ****ed (and our future equity will continue to drop if we just take the ICM ****ing), so I think we should call with slightly $-EV hands and not use $0EV as the breakeven point. ICM is, and always will be a static analysis of a dynamic situation, and not fudging it for the dynamics is a mistake IMO.

I took Qx+ to mean {Q2+,K2+,A2+}. Off the top of my head 70% seems in the ballpark of reasonable, though. When 1 guy has a big chip lead and the other 4 players are pretty tightly bunched the short stacks need a lot of equity to call off their stacks versus the chip leader.

Definitely, but we don't have any real information about this. I'm assuming that if AJK was openjamming 30+ BBs effective frequently at the FT, that would have been mentioned in the P5s thread. So I'm assuming this hand was a somewhat isolated incident, which means that getting "ICM ****ed" probably wasn't a big issue at the time.


Edit: Fairly sure this thread is to blame: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87...oughts-350246/

That Lion is so cute.

I ran a range that AJK said was "probably pretty close" to his actual shoving range, maybe a bit on the loose side, and 88 came out with around 61.5%. While I understand that the possibility of getting ICM-****ed and the possibility of being the one doing the ICM-****ing in the future means we should call lighter than optimal break-even, calling at optimal breakeven requires AJK to be shoving around 60% and I don't think anyone gives him a range anywhere close to that. I think Pokerccini's call is bad but most of us would make the same call. Sobering thought.

This is the point where the discussion gets slightly more interesting: is AJKs shove bad if he expects the stacks behind him to call improperly?

I have errands and the gym to get to so I'm not going to tear into that question just yet but I'll be back in a few hours to see where the discussion goes and contribute my thoughts.

(I like ICM levelling wars. They're so interesting because the worse people call the worse you have to shove, meaning they should adjust by calling tighter, meaning you should shove looser, meaning my head hurts. I know this all leads to an equilibrium etc. in theory but if it did in practice then villain wouldn't be calling looser in the first place.)

I just realized something that made me laugh.

Jennifear : P5s :: Todd Terry : 2p2

Shame though that p5s banned their universally accepted best poster ever for life.