Sorry, this comes a little late, but we got in a bit of discussion with my friend who I've swapped 10% with in this tournie.

This is pretty much the starting table. ~250 hands behind with everyone involved in the hand.

EP opener is 19/11/1.6 with 15% open from EP and 14% from MP

The initial caller is 17/14/1.5 with 4.5% 3-bet

The hijack caller is 19/13/2.8 with 6% 3-bet


Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125.00/t250.00 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t31662.00 M = 84.43
Hero (CO): t4740.00 M = 12.64
BTN: t21498.00 M = 57.33
SB: t18478.00 M = 49.27
BB: t22815.00 M = 60.84
UTG: t27449.00 M = 73.20
UTG+1: t46331.00 M = 123.55
UTG+2: t12719.00 M = 33.92
MP1: t19124.00 M = 51.00

Pre Flop: (t375) Hero is CO with Q K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t600, UTG+2 calls t600, 1 fold, MP2 calls t600, Hero raises to t4710


Just gimme your hunch whether this is -EV or +EV shove in your opinion.

If it's -EV, then give me the borderline hands. 88+ and AQ+?

This is definitely not close and very bad. UTG+1 range and his calling range are both have you crushed, you will get folds from all 3 like 1% percent of the time.

UTG+1 and UTG+2 has chips and should not mess around too often. And all 3 players stats are not on the very tight side. Someone will call you and you will be in bad shape

In terms of shipping range I guess: AQs+ 99+ (99 is close)

Ninja Edit: And still you have 19BBs, you are not that desperate, no antes, slow structure etc. no need to push that much

ya seems pretty bad

Hmm... the converter is ****ed up.

There are antes in the pot. (Although I'm not sure if it makes a real diff.)

Pot is 2445 and I'm risking 4710. So if I disregard postflop equity stuff my shove has to work ~65% to break-even which it probably doesn't.

Why would you disregard that?

seems like a good shove because the way software is written
the dog win's all the time.
or you say the person had a hunch

Just to get a grasp.

EP opener is probably calling with AQ, AK, 99+ (my eq. is 30%)
MP is calling with AQ, 99+ (my eq. is 31%. He might 3-bet AA/KK always, I'm not sure. If he does, my eq. is 36%)
LP is calling AQ, JJ-88 (my eq. 38%)

I think when I shove this will never be anything else except a 2-way all-in. (Except for the very rare time EP wakes up with like QQ+/AK/AQ and MP reshoves AK/KK+)

I'm too lazy/incapable of breaking down the equity in each scenario, so let's just say

I am called every time I shove. My equity vs the caller is 33% (a very rough estimate)

So after being called every time my EV is 3717 for the hands. (-1k from the beginning)

So I would have to get everyone to fold preflop 41% of the time to make this break-even.

If they fold more than 41% I'm +EV in this spot in cEV. (Which is probably very close to ICM value aswell...)


FWIW, the initial opener's fold to 3-bet over those 250 hands was 86%.

If the initial opener mucks to my 3-bet 65%, the second 75% and the last 85% then I get the 41% fold equity.

How does these %'s sound?

Pretty much this. Youre always getting called and youre often crushed, never better than a flip.

Edit: also 20BB is an effective re-steal stack on looser/later or a single opener. Especially with such a slow structure.

Only good thing is the dead money sweetening the pot, if you do get called by a hand that youre flipping with.

This is marginal, not terrible IMO. You're not worried about MP2's range, UTG+1 seems to be opening and folding to 3bets enough and has to worry about UTG+2, UTG+2 is probably your main concern, and you can certainly discount a lot of hands that dominate you from his range. And you have card removal blockers. I think it's OK but close.

TT you attach importance to blockers too much imo. This maybe close against some opponents but without specific reads, trying this is not good and its not close. I also strongtly disagree "you can certainly discount a lot of hands that dominate you from his range" statement. AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ is all possible hands for UTG+1 and UTG+2. I remember some other thread you suggest going all-in with AK and with healthy chip stack against a 3 bet since we got blockers.

Additionally no pair will fold here either from UTG+1 UTG+2 MP2 and when others fold, even if we are not dominated, some of our K's and Q's will go into to muck from others. (I normally dont think like that but since you prioritize blockers, here this goes)

You strongly disagree that we can discount {AA, KK, AK} and to a lesser extent QQ from UTG+2's range? I didn't say eliminate, I said discount. By strongly disagreeing you're taking the position that those hands rarely if ever get 3bet in this spot.

Also saying no pair will fold from UTG+1 is completely ridiculous. UTG+2 less so but still ridiculous. MP2 also less so but still silly.

Ok,

Another argue with my friend. Not much of an argue, but still, I would like your opinion just for fun.

He said JTs is a better hand to shove here than KQo. I said no effin' way, cause KQ removes AK/AQ combos and flips vs JJ/TT and is still 30% vs QQ. Only pro for JTs is that it is pretty live vs AK/AQ, but I think rest are cons.

EDIT: Nevermind. Apparently JTs is better after stoving it. Kinda surprising result.
I guess it's because with JTs there are 6 of TT/JJ combos vs 32 combos of AK/AQ
And with KQ there's a total of 12 JJ/TT combos and 24 AK/AQ combos

1-1

This is a 5K tournament, there will be more slow playing going on. I can see myself just calling KK and QQ if I were UTG+2 pretty high percentage of the time.

No pair fold thing is obv a exaggeration, however, hands like 9-9,10-10, JJ will not fold here. Additionally if I were UTG+2 and UTG+1 folds, I will iso close to 100% of my range there, which should have KQ crushed (edit OK not crushed but ahead)

More edit: And you think MP2 will fold a pair getting like close to 1.8 - 2:1 (The best case scenario I guess with UTG+1 and UTG+2 folding) Farrr from silly

No one has mentioned this yet, but even w/ 19bb, look at the stacks you are messing with. You can't materially damage the stacks of utg+1 or MP2 if they call, and the smallest stack, utg+2, is the most likely to have a slowplay in this spot. Also, I'm sure some of your outs are being held by the 3 players in the pot, so your never even really "flipping" if you get it in against TT/JJ.

Maybe but I think if they were holding a K or Q, it would most often be with an A.

seems fine

Really surprised people whose game I respect are saying this is a bad shove. They really dont need to fold that often for this to be profitable. Since KQ has around 35 percent equity versus 77+ AJs+ I'm guess they'd all need to fold less than 30 percent of the time for it to be profitable. Too lazy to perform actual calculation. All this talk about them holding outs and stuff is making my brain explode. The original raiser is probably opening wide enough and utg+2 is almost definitely flatting enough in this spot with pairs and maybe even suited broadways based on his stats. I don't think there is enough information to weight his range more heavily towards big pairs. I could be wrong here, I 3 bet shove too wide in certain spots.

more edit - and whether or not KQo is better than JTs i think is just a pokerstove question. Since there are 3 possibile callers its definitely complicated but versus a standard call range of 77+ AJs+ JTs has 36 percent equity versus KQ's 35 percent equity. I really don't know if card removal is something you can include with KQ, or how to if it is. But with pokerstove JTs is better.

I'd take a look at the call open % for both callers also, to get a feel for how wide their flatting ranges might be here. I don't think it can be that bad b/c of the dead money and the fact that we'll be flipping a lot, but I think it'd take a decent amount of number crunching to be sure. Generally I don't think that I would reship on the initial raiser if there were no callers, but I'm not sure how the callers will affect your overall EV, it could very well cause the EP raiser to fold more often than he would otherwise, and you could be getting it in with a wider range vs. the other 2 callers and be flipping heads up w/ a bunch of dead money a lot. It could also just cause you to get into more spots where you're crushed considering you have to go through 3 people. Also you have very little FE overall here, but you need less to make it +EV also.

Wow thought I was going nuts, I def agree with kleath/apestyles

It's not just a PokerStove question. Because having the K and Q you will be called less often than if you have a J and a T due to card removal. So your equity if called is lower with the KQo, but your fold equity is higher because you're getting called less often. With 3 potential callers though AFAIK there are no commercially available programs that could do the calculations with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The main issue, in addition to the margin of error introduced by assigning ranges for 3 players, is accounting for the card removal effects of the ranges of all the players. And you also have to account for the possibility of getting it in vs. more than 1 player.

yea, I agree. I was aware of all of those factors but was unsure of how to quantify. Still not sure whether or not KQ or JTs is better to shove in that spot.

edit - basically what I was saying was that as a guesstimation regarding which is better to shove was okay to use pokerstove. However, if you're called significantly less with KQ because less AQ and AK combos perhaps that makes it a better shove with KQ. How do you quantify that though?

Regarding 2 people calling. Lets be sloppy and say you have 30 percent equity versus calling ranges overall rather than 35 percent equity overall its still a fine shove. I'm obviously making up things now but I still think its a +ev to neutral ev shove.

Well in this case you remove 4 AK combos and 4 AQ combos due to the K and Q. It also makes it half as likely the OR has KK & half as likely he has QQ. Don't really want to do the math, but I would say KQ is a way better hand to get it in here with. Your pros for JT here are only valid when he has AK or AQ, and that is a smaller percentage of his calling range when you have KQ (about 25% smaller when you hold the two blockers).

Interesting hand, thanks for the delayed post.

something about these stats too decent amount of those hands are likely pre ante if this is pretty much starting table, theyre much more likely to be on the looser side of their stats than the tighter, also so many chips are already in we dont need that many folds

but if they are all calling AJ, TT and JJ how does it make much difference? The AJ is arguable but I'd say its might even be more likely that utg +2 has TT or JJ than QQ or KK.

edit - but thanks for the reply. I didn't factor in card removal in the past and clearly i should have. I need to do research on how much more likely/unlikely certain hand combos are. Seems fairly easy though.