I've gone back in forth with some well respected pros about this spot that came up for me. Just wanted feedback to see overall responses. Please help me out.

Day 2 of Tampa Hard Rock $560 buy-in.

Blinds 2k/4k/500
I have 20 bigs. Its the 3rd hand of the day and the villain got raised off the first 2 hands preflop after flatting an open and opening himself. Played with him on day one and he stated he was in for 5 bulletts. Saw him 4 bet all in with medium pairs twice. However, I don't think it matters too much who the villain is here.

I'm in the cutoff (80K) with a pair of 10s.
Checks to villain (@100k to start) who opens 1 to my right for 9k.

This is a very common spot and heard a few different views. I've been running bad for a while so now I find myself second guessing my decision.

What are you guys doing here? I'll post what I did and result after. I appreciate your feedback in advance.

If V is self-aware of his Day 1 image, then I like a flat. A 3b could get rough right quick.

glai

This is bad, question is whether or not we want to 3b/c or shove, given info 3b/c appears optimal.

w/ history re: 4bai with medium pairs, I don't see how this isn't a 3b/c

Villain could be trawling, have his stack correctly sectioned.

Easy ship. You've got 20BB with a loose villian whose range is super wide opening in the hijack.

4 combos of pairs that crush you (AA-JJ) = 6*4 = 24*.2
8 combos of pairs that you dominate (99-22) = 6*8 = 48*.8
6 combos that you're flipping with (AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ,QJ) = 16*6 = 96*.52

(24/168)*.2 = 2.85%; (48/168)*.8 = 22.85%; (96/168)*.52 = 29.71%

Total = 55.41%

Keep in mind this doesn't even represent a "loose" range for villain, as he could have multiple combos of suited connectors, bad Aces, & rags that he's opening with too.

If you gave more details about Button and Blinds, we could narrow this, but let's assume after you shove they are only calling tight (99+, AK, AQ).

Add in fold equity & it makes this an easy shove.

Agreed

Standard shove. If effective was 25bb, then 3b is a possibility.

Shove. You could get fancier with 3b/call against an Internet reg, but you doing really want to get flat called holding mid pp / big ace hands.

I think you can shove, 3b/c or flat some of the time.

My preference is more towards the 3b/c against the villain described. 3 betting gives him a chance to make a mistake. Even some donkeys fold small pps when they face massive all-ins.

Yeh, but his range includes a lot of high cards, not just small pps. The mistake a donk will likely make is to flat call the 3b. Then he likely folds the flop if he can't beat TT, but gii if he can.

So I would prefer pushing mid pps, big aces and other hands you want to gii with. 3b/c is way better with QQ+. You can balance QQ+ with bluffs, and it works well with bluffs in that villain will make mistakes against those, such as folding the best hand OTF.

^ nice post betgo

Great feedback guys. I really appreciate it.

I shoved and got called by AhJh. Ace on river and on to the next.

I think it's optimal with an 80k stack with 20k Already in the pot vs a 100k stack

Was really surprised that some said to flat

you are paranoid

V's 4b ship range?

yes easy shove. the above is indeed a problem with 3betting small here, but i just wanted to point out that flatting a 3bet in his shoes is not necessarily a mistake, depending on the hand/range he does it with.

Villain's 4b ship range shouldn't matter b/c when committing to the hand we should always 3b pile here with 20BB to maximize fold equity.

If there is a call of our 3b-jam from the Button - Blinds, I think Villain's 4b ship/call range is Ultra-tight....QQ+.

/thread well done swank. Basically we will shove into villain and be hu vs his range roughly 94% of the time (blinds fold) of that 6ish% we get coolered we have likely 40+% eq so wouldn't hardly consider it much of a factor here. And swank already suggested we have a bit over 55% eq vs the relatively tight openening range (which could easily be looser) and that range isn't calling 100% vs our shove so we insta profit when he folds. Good shove, gg. I think getting fancy with 1010 is not a good idea given that it encourages villain to reshove certain hands that have great eq he may otherwise fold to a shove and same goes for blinds. I don't think it's gonna get the desired result you'd be looking for. Ax has 30% eq and wouldn't even be making a big mistake shoving into you... If you want a 3b/c range at this depth, start at the top and work in hands that can't reshove properly. At first thought, AA/KK/some AK/QQ and a few Ax/Kx combos. Seems reasonable anyway. If deeper, I think a 3b/call with 1010 is quite good vs aggro villains that will reshove small pairs and some Ax..it's just a bigger mistake there. At 20bb, Ax isn't making a big enough mistake I don't think.

I don't think there are many/any good reasons to have a 3B non-
All In range here as others have stated. There are merits to flatting to induce action from particularly clicky opponents behind us and disguise hand strength if opener is particularly loose and jamming on a lot of flops after cbet , jamming - which would be standard, or even possibly folding preflop to really tight opponents who will be usually putting us in uncomfortable spots postflop if we flat and we know that we are only ever racing or way behind if called.

don't /thread I'd like to try and do legit EV calcs on this spot. After trying myself, my gut tells me something is off.

And if it's a few points wider? Like {22-44, TT+, 25% of T9s/98s/87s/etc.} as an example?

betgo's kernel is that if you're doing something, always have a piece (semi-bluff, semi-bluff, semi-bluff air for show).

In terms of bluff equity, SC's have the clearest path to realizing value v monsters. Sure they start well behind on race equity, but if they get there, and it's a deep wet field (Mil, SCOOP/WCOOP/MicroMil), then you basically have 1-3 orbits of runneth over.

I arbitrarily gave villain a 20% fe which has him calling off all pairs, KQo+, AJs+ which will be about 10% of hands and have him opening all pairs and broadways ~14%.


villain opens 9k (10.5k in pot, 19.5k total before we act) we reshove 80000.
he calls 80% of the time
we have 58% eq when called.

expected stack=(.2)(80000+19500)+(.8)(170500*.58)=99012 EV of shove=19k *we bust about 34% of the time in this scenario*
a lot of our ev is derived from the portion of the times we gii vs villain so if we widen his opening range and simply increase our fold equity our EV will go up but not significantly so.

Not taking into consideration of chops or blinds waking up with a hand.

To make it easy I usually just multiply the fold % of a player to act by itself for the amt of players left to act, it gets close I think. for example, a blind will call if it has 99+AQ+ which is 5% of hands, so sb fold 0.95 x bb fold 0.95. One will wake up with a top 5% hand ~9% of the time. now considering the money in the pot before we shove and that 1010 has 44% eq vs this range, I'd say it's almost a non factor and if it brings down the ev of the shove it will be pretty slight. But of course we have to then factor in 2 villains waking up with said strong hands and that would obv bring down our ev a bit more. I'm not certain of the exact EV of the shove but it's def gonna be +EV. If someone wants to tackle the 3b/gii EV, have at it. I'm beat.

EDIT: CREV confirms it pretty much. Total EV of shove appears to be ~17k with pretty good assumptions.


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Making over 4bb with any other play is gonna be pretty tough imo and it will also leave us open to making a mistake. I.e. we 3b and one of the blinds reshoves and we level ourselves into folding when our hand may have sufficient eq. And again, encouraging action from hands we beat that have decent eq is gonna likely be a losing battle considering the alternative.

I would assume a donk in a live MTT is calling 3-bets wide, 4-betting tight, and calling pushes somewhat tight.

The problem with 3-bet/calling TT is that, just playing his hand, he will may more or less correctly postflop, while you will be in the dark as to what he has. Similarly, with AK, he will usually fold if an ace or king hits and he doesn't have one. Then you are in a tricky spot when you miss.

Don't see how you can get as much profit flat calling with TT as pushing, so flatting is not a good play here.

With a big pp, obviously, 3-bet/call works well against this type of player. With a bluff, he will flat a lot, and fold the flop a lot, so it can also be a good play with a bluff.

I would shove most of the range I would play is this situation. However, I would flat or 3-bet/fold some good hands not strong enough to gii with.