The 19:00 Sunday $109. Five tables left; I just got moved to this one. No reads on anybody, except that UTG in hand 2 is tufat. (I have no idea if MP1 knows that or has any idea what that means.)


Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (BB): t51403
UTG: t27068
UTG+1: t65892
UTG+2: t61983
MP1: t27283
MP2: t64720
CO: t71690
BTN: t40214
SB: t80057

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with K A
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t5555, MP1 raises to t27083 all in, 2 folds, BTN raises to t40014 all in, 1 fold, Hero?


Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds - 8 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (MP2): t52203
CO: t23268
BTN: t62092
SB: t58228
BB: t63920
UTG: t70890
UTG+1: t76852
MP1: t82857

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with A K
UTG raises to t5125, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t14567, Hero?

hand 1 is definitely a safe fold.

i don't mind mucking hand 2, either.

ok, but is mucking hand 2 best? do we have any thoughts on ranges here?

1 fold
2 tank tank tank tank then raise to 30,000

ok, so hand 2:

3banging the UTG bet you'd expect the range for an unknown to be JJ+, AK. i do not know how tufat plays, but you'd put his range on 88+, AQ+, AJs or KQs if he's feeling particularly frisky, the occasional garbage.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


on the, what, 10% chance that tufat wakes up with KK+, here's what you're looking at:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.247% 10.74% 01.51% 15893742 2237376.33 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 22.114% 20.81% 01.31% 30801354 1936384.83 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 65.639% 65.26% 00.38% 96611884 560690.83 { KK+ }


anyway, shipping 52 to win 62 or so seems unprofitable. so i like a fold more than i did before now that i've actually looked at numbers.

hand 2 i probably raise/shove since tufat is going to give you credit for a huge hand and might hero laydown queens sometimes. kinda depends how active tufats been etc, but just with MP1 having a large stack size i think hes more prone to 3 bet here than others at the table so think its ok.

fold 1 for sure

if you throw AQs and half of AQo into mp1's range, it ain't so bad.


Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.096% 35.42% 12.67% 21836075 7811598.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 51.904% 39.23% 12.67% 24183673 7811598.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }


it looks a lot better, but this is assuming that tufat never has aces or kings.

edit:

we have the Ac.

if villain sometimes puts us on KK+ and spaz folds jacks, then its even better

Is this serious? I really dont know if it is or not?

nath--

I fold the first easily. The second hand is frustrating but it looks like a fold too.

All my best,

--Nate

yeah

its pretty close and might be a fold, but if i was to continue i would do that instead of shoving

why would u do that instead of shoving to make it look like your hand is stronger then usual?

on the off chance you might fold out some pairs

Bonus question: What are you guys shipping here? (Assume in hand 2 any hand I play is for a ship.)

Fold Both...............1 always 2 maaaybe shove once in a while if im in the mood to gambooool but I think fold is better

QQ+ I shove in 2

i never fold 2, i make up a conspiracy that he's restealing the UTG steal and ship it in

I think KK+ for both honestly, maybe QQ+ in 2 cause it's tufat

+1 sadly.