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Tough Preflop Spot in <img k Monday Tough Preflop Spot in <img k Monday

11-21-2008 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Universe
zapatero is a huuge hu sng fish...aggro donk
if hes aggro enough to be making this play with 99 aq than ships good, although even given the above note - do u think his range includes hands like that universe since u are the only one who knows altl bit about his game.
11-21-2008 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by redirkulous
3bettor was "zapatero"
zzz shove
11-21-2008 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fsoyars
Putting 88-99 and AQ in his range is pretty optimistic I think. This is almost always JJ, QQ and AK. With 40bbs and no antes I'd fold and find a better spot.
Aren't the stacks almost perfect for a resteal by CO? I don't see how you get anywhere near this tight of a range. I'd expect to see 88-QQ, AJ-AK a lot, and would expect to see lower pocket pairs, worse Ax hands, and KQ/KJ, more often than AA or KK.
11-21-2008 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fsoyars
Putting 88-99 and AQ in his range is pretty optimistic I think. This is almost always JJ, QQ and AK. With 40bbs and no antes I'd fold and find a better spot.
I'm no High stakes guy, but what do you think villain is doing with 88. 99 and AQ after someone with 20bbs opens from LP? Stacks suck for flat calling with any of those hands, yet they should be ahead of openers range, so I think most people would raise these hands. You are essentially suggesting that villain will FOLD 99 to a single LP raise (because flat calling a medium pair or big ace 20 bbs deep isn't optimal play), which I think is unrealistic even for the tightest of nits (which this guy isn't lol).

So, if we took the COs entire 3-betting range here (lets say AQ+, 77+) and include all his monsters, we still have 50.1% equity (obv we have some three way effects as well, but we can ignore them for now). I doubt villain is 3-betting tighter than that, so even if we don't interpret his big raise as weaker, I think cramming is ok but marginal. If we include the 3-way pots we might end up with, folding against his full raising range is probably best.

However, I think villains large raise normally means that he has the more mediocre (or low) end of this raising range, like AQ, AK, 77-JJ. And against a range like that we have 60% equity, which turns a marginal spot into a very good one for us. So, I simply don't see how folding here is better than cramming.

      
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