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Tonight's Su Mill, what would you do on river w/ 2-pair vs. possible flush w/ 1 PSB stack left? Tonight's Su Mill, what would you do on river w/ 2-pair vs. possible flush w/ 1 PSB stack left?

01-04-2015 , 07:06 PM
Still pretty early in Sunday Million, just after antes kicked in. Average stack at this point around 13k, so I'm trailing the field a little, but not desperate yet.

MP2 is VPIP 39, PFR 8 over 89 hands, BB is VPIP 43, PFR 18 over 89 hands (3B = 5). I complete SB because a sqeeze from BB seems unlikely, and if he does, I have an easy fold.

What are the worst hands that you would complete SB with here ?

Flop comes decent for me, and check-call is probably standard. Given that it's a limped pot, would you see any reason to lead out here ?

When the turn gives me 2 pairs, check-raise is probably standard as well, raise size should be all right as well I guess; a little more than 1 PSB effective stack is left going to the river.

The river completes the front door flush draw What's your play here ? Bet small and fold against raise ? Check-fold, unless Villain bets river small (which seems awfully exploitable, since, once I do check the river after check-raising turn, most Villains will probably correctly assume that I don't have the flush) ? Check-call river, even if Villain shoves, trying to be less exploitable ?


    Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #33816721

    BB: 13,709 (54.8 bb)
    UTG+1: 10,717 (42.9 bb)
    UTG+2: 25,436 (101.7 bb)
    MP1: 11,891 (47.6 bb)
    MP2: 14,362 (57.4 bb)
    MP3: 8,015 (32.1 bb)
    CO: 21,019 (84.1 bb)
    BTN: 15,643 (62.6 bb)
    Hero (SB): 9,428 (37.7 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K 8
    3 folds, MP2 calls 250, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

    Flop: (975) 5 3 K (3 players)
    Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets 750, Hero calls 750, BB folds

    Turn: (2,475) 8 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP2 bets 750, Hero raises to 1,850, MP2 calls 1,100

    River: (6,175) 9 (2 players)
    Spoiler:

    Hero bets 6,553 and is all-in, MP2 calls 6,553

    Results: 19,281 pot
    Final Board: 5 3 K 8 9
    MP2 showed J T and won 19,281 (9,853 net)
    Hero showed K 8 and lost (-9,428 net)



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    01-04-2015 , 08:45 PM
    [x] small b/f
    01-05-2015 , 03:53 AM
    ^ agreed, as played though, fold pre the first time....
    01-05-2015 , 05:03 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hazelasty
    [x] small b/f
    On the river I have just slightly over one pot-sized bet left. If I bet small, such as 2.1k, am I not telegraphing just as much that I don't have a flush as a check would, only that I am actually committing myself ? If Villain shoves over the top, I only have to call 4453 more, when the pot is already 14828, getting 3.1:1 with 2 pair, can we really fold to a shove ? All options suck somehow in this spot, with these stack sizes ...
    01-05-2015 , 05:05 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SSKS
    ^ agreed, as played though, fold pre the first time....
    Hmm, okay ... what are some of the worst hands that you would complete the small blind with in this situation then ?
    01-05-2015 , 05:18 AM
    Its not fold for 0.5bb to complete. If BB raises so be it. 0.5bb is nothing to see a big pot multiway where you only continue strong with 5% miracles or 12-13% top pair iffy kicker. Clearly the guy that opened without raising doesnt look like a big hand anyway so you do have equity here with a top pair. So 0.5bb is little price to pay if careful to see 3.9bb pot.

    It is worthy to call and proceed carefully even if BB steals/3bts for real 30% of the time.

    Now as played bet the river first 40% of the pot and fold to a push. Its a combination of value, pot control, uncallable bluff reduction move.

    A push is wrong because it pays only those that have it and never gets called by 1 pair hands KQ,KJ,KT not even rare slow played AA,AK.

    You bet in a way that poses for flush as if value betting what you finally got. That makes it less likely to pay full value to flushes that are not nut and they cant be as often as played preflop so the guy will only call you and save the rest (not push all i mean always). If you check you lose value from the worse hands but they may bluff now and you cant call big bets as played. Naturally just because a flush is possible doesnt mean the guy has it so betting is not a bad idea. It is of course alarming you got called at turn but i doubt all people fold top pair there if you do not have a tight image.

    So i think either check call 50% and less pot bets or bet 40% pot yourself first and protect your situation from worse. Do not bet less than 40% in order to not appear weak scared of the flush. A 40% bet is very often the value bet a made flush makes who is in between greed and fear to not get called, properly balanced. Its a bet significantly larger than prior street check raise so its legitimate size without using all your chips.

    Last edited by masque de Z; 01-05-2015 at 05:29 AM.
    01-05-2015 , 05:31 AM
    Do you have any stats or reads on villain postflop? Have you seen him call down light? Does he bluff rivers when checked to? Given how high his Vpip is you should have seen him play some hands postflop. Is he bad enough to call off with draws if you just c/jam turn?

    As played with no other info id probably c/f river since he shouldn't really have any air and I doubt you'll get valuebluffed very often by worse 2p or that this villain will turn a hand with sdv into a bluff but it's pretty gross.
    01-05-2015 , 06:47 AM
    C/r the turn bigger or call.
    01-05-2015 , 07:07 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ShipIt2urBoi
    Do you have any stats or reads on villain postflop? Have you seen him call down light? Does he bluff rivers when checked to?
    I was multi-tabling, and don't have specific reads on his postflop tendencies, unfortunately. I'm at a different computer now where I don't have access to HM2, but can look them up later. Which stats would you be looking at, WTSD%, or others too ? (As mentioned, I have only 89 hands on Villain).

    As played, people seem to agree on bet small & fold, thank you all for the input, makes sense, although I'd hate life
    01-05-2015 , 07:10 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Scrudge
    C/r the turn bigger or call.
    X/r turn to which amount do you suggest ?

    If calling turn, and with the same river card: check-call or bet-fold, and why ?
    01-05-2015 , 01:34 PM
    oh mis read the hand, didnt know it was limped.
    01-05-2015 , 01:53 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SSKS
    oh mis read the hand, didnt know it was limped.
    Ah cool, yeah, against MP raise def. fold K8o in SB

    Still, I'd be interested in people's opinion what their worst hands would be to complete here ... I would probably complete any pair, suited hands like 87s, 97s+, T6s+, J7s+, Q7s+, K7s+, and any suited ace, and offsuit any ace, K8+, Q9+, J9+, T9 - 87, something like that ...?!
    01-05-2015 , 02:02 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ShipIt2urBoi
    Do you have any stats or reads on villain postflop?
    Villain over 89 hands VPIP 39, PFR 8 (in MP: 40/15), WTSD% Flop: 18% (33 hands), Won $ at SD: 66.7, Postflop Agg% 26 (62 hands), with Agg% F/T/R: 21% / 26% / 40%.
    01-05-2015 , 11:05 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by +VLFBERH+T
    Villain over 89 hands VPIP 39, PFR 8 (in MP: 40/15), WTSD% Flop: 18% (33 hands), Won $ at SD: 66.7, Postflop Agg% 26 (62 hands), with Agg% F/T/R: 21% / 26% / 40%.
    Yeah I'd c/f river villain seems like a passive fish I doubt you'll get bluffed too often and he shouldn't have air on river so he will probably check back almost all non flush hands he thinks have sdv. Against this type of villain who clearly calls way too much I consider c/shove turn or at least use bigger sizing. You should really have a plan for what to do on diamond and non diamond rivers when you c/r turn so you don't get into a spot with spr 1 where you are considering making small blocker bets and folding. Flatting turn is also an option to avoid awkward stack sizes on river but is probably a mistake against this villain.

          
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