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Tilt 150r: river spot with a boat on the board Tilt 150r: river spot with a boat on the board

11-10-2008 , 02:53 AM
No real reads. I have Grandpa tagged with my "lag" color but tbh he's been fairly taggish thus far this table. Best line for river? Comments on all streets welcome. I bet the turn bc I figured he bets most bigger pps on the flop.

Full Tilt Poker $80,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds + t25 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Belabacsi (BTN): t22985
chicagocards1 (SB): t7005
tn1468 (BB): t7855
Hero (UTG): t8745
THE_GOLDMINE (UTG+1): t13007
bballer88 (UTG+2): t11290
Phwap (MP1): t5398
GrampaJeff (MP2): t6405
jt3013 (CO): t6729

Pre Flop: (t585) Hero is UTG with 6 6
Hero raises to t600, 3 folds, GrampaJeff calls t600, 3 folds, tn1468 calls t360

Flop: (t2145) K K K (3 players)
tn1468 checks, Hero checks, GrampaJeff checks

Turn: (t2145) 2 (3 players)
tn1468 checks, Hero bets t1400, GrampaJeff calls t1400, tn1468 folds

River: (t4945) 2 (2 players)
Hero?
11-10-2008 , 03:16 AM
I think we can discount QQ, and AA from his range just based on preflop. The majority of his range after the flop check and turn call is low pocket pairs, and possibly some A highs although I think that is really unlikely. The thing is, I can't see him checking back the flop with 99, 1010, or JJ if he has those. Even 88 and 77 seems like a stretch, but once he calls the turn I guess we have to assume he is capable of checking back low pocket pairs on the flop. K's and 22 are obviously very unlikely, so the majority of his range is probably 33-88, leaning towards the lower pocket pairs.

If we check, based on your note, he is going to valuebet (if he gets here) with 88-JJ I would say. My guess is that he will shove JJ and 1010 at this point, and probably bet like 1/2 pot with 99 and 1010. He will likely check behind with 55-33, and of course shove with 22 and a K. I think your best plan of action is betting small, like 1.5-2k, and folding to a shove although it seems ****ty. Hands that have you beat are going to valuebet at least that amount imo, and I don't think he will fold a house getting more than 3 to 1. I think the only hands you are losing value against are possibly 77 and 88, if they would play it like this and check behind the river, but call if/when you bet.

With a read that he will is capable of having say 22-JJ here, and will fold 33 and 44 to a river bet, and vbet 77-JJ, I think a c/f is safe, but I can't see c/f here. Maybe even bet like 1500, I think its unlikely he is going to raise with 99% of his range, and I really can't see him bluffing with anything.
11-10-2008 , 03:37 AM
are you considering betting?
11-10-2008 , 04:48 AM
He has 4400 on the river so I'm considering either c/fing or shoving.
11-10-2008 , 06:22 AM
I like a check fold I think. Hes going to showdown basically all of the hands you beat and pretty much never bet any hands that you are ahead of unless hes a complete nuthead. I mean you could value shove but I just really dont see him snapping you off with ace high in this spot it's possible tho. Check/fold>Shove>bet/fold probably.
11-10-2008 , 06:43 AM
Check fold is correct choice. His range has more bigger than lower pair than yours.
11-10-2008 , 07:28 AM
GrampaJeff= Jeffbeesdat.

Thinking player, always deep in majors, just shipped the 300^3 ftops the other day.

IN this spot ur hand is litterally NEVER good, he never shows worse then 99 here and that might be giving him too light a range. I dont mind the line on the flop or turn, however after he calls turn u should never be putting in another chip on river unless ur plan is to bluff.
11-10-2008 , 07:30 AM
Btw i dont think i open 66 at this particular table. I would be emailing tilt asking for a table change if i were u.
11-10-2008 , 08:07 AM
ya i def fold pf and i think if you bet the turn the river is a c/f because he's not floating you and isn't going to have worse pairs in his range(at least i think from what i know of him). the turn bet is good though because the other guy might peel ax on the turn and there's something to be said for betting when your hand is highly likely to be good and protecting your equity even if you won't get called by much worse.

      
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