You have to raise small to make it look like there might be FE. Sometimes a raise looks stronger than a push here to some people. If you make it like 2.25xBB, then you may get flat called, which you don't really want. Also, not sure if you want to induce action on the bubble, as there is some ICM factor.

If people will think you will fold due to the bubble and resteal on you, there might be advantages to just raising though.

I would miniraise raise QQ+ here, as it is plausible enough that you might be folding on the bubble and you wouldn't mind flats with those hands.

The problem with pushing AKs here is that, in this situation, if you get called, you are almost never ahead. (How often will someone call you w/ AQ or worse here?)
Let's break it down:
1. By folding, you make $300, plus on average let's say $W more after the bubble, total gain=$300+W.
2. Now we need some reasonable assumptions about what happens when you push. I'd estimate you'd get called 20% (7 players only call you w/ top 3% hands), lose 12%, win 8%, win the blinds the remaining 80% times.

Now let's assume by winning the 4.5k blinds alone, your average post-bubble winning will go up 25%, to $W x 1.25. And by doubling up to 75K, your average post-bubble winning will go up 75%, to $W x 1.75. (very generous assumptions, since the prizes increase very slowly from the bubble to the final several tables)

Pushing: P=0 x 12% +(300+1.25W) x80% + (300+1.75w) x8% = $(264+1.14W)
Folding: F= $(300+w)
F - P = 36 - 0.14 W 36/0.14=257

As long as your average post-bubble winning (if you hold on to your 35k, on top of the $300), is less than $257, folding here is better than pushing. Since most assumptions are on the generous side, the magic number could very likely be at least $300.

So, if by folding this hand, your final prize will be on average $600 or more, then you should push AKs here. The added chips will worth more than the money you risked. But since 35k is less than half the average stack at the moment, I don't think most players can pull off an average $600 finish here.

The morality factor and possible tilting should also be considered. Back in the early Partypoker years, in my very first $200 MTT, I open folded KK for the $600 bubble prize. (my final prize was $900). That cashing gave me a big confidence boost down on this road. On the other hand, last year alone, my AA lost to exactly 72o three times on the bubble of Pokerstars supersatellites. These beats made me hate myself for not folding when I could 100% cruise into the money. My playing style was also affected for a long period after that.

I respect all the players who choose to push here. I know many seasoned pros would seek big confrontations paticularly in these bubble situations to have a better shot at the top prizes. More power to you. I have been burnt too many times, just can't pull the trigger there.

^^^ wow

what are your screen names so we know for future reference:P jkjk

thats such a terrible line of logic if u are a full time mtt player you are guarenteed to cost yourself money over the long run......

wow.....unless of course this is a super duper level

In addition to the generally terrible logic and bad poker advice...you made a fundamental flaw in your reasoning that you won't be ahead in the hand with AK. That's what makes shoving it really so much extra fun in my opinion.

If you get called, you have one of a few situations awaiting you...

A) You are in a really bad spot (AA)
B) You are in a bad spot (KK)
C) You are flipping (QQ-22)
D) You are in a great spot (AQ-A2, KQ- K2)
E) You are in a good spot (any other two cards)

By looking at the deck situation E occurs most often and A/B least often so AK is a value shove at any reasonable size stack you are shoving because with small stacks villains will call wide enough that you have over 50% equity against his range (AKo has over 50% equity against any range that is equal to 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ or wider).

Just shove and take the positive equity that comes with it

AKs is slightly ahead of a calling range of 99+,AQ+ plus pot odds. Then you probably just take the blinds 60% of the time. You bust out maybe 20% of the time.

limp/fold imo

Probably the worst advice I´ve ever heard.

OP :
.............and so on.


............and never ever think along this line....

Wow op this is a super easy shove. OP you must get the thought of cashing out of your mind all together, it should not be important to any good tourny player in 99% of situations [unless the money really is very important to you]. You should be even looking to take advantage of the bubble and play lots more hands and more aggressively as people will play too tight near the bubble [you wanting to open fold AK with 12BB being a classical example].

If i was in your spot i would be shoving alot wider than AK as i dont think you are getting called a high % of the time being on the bubble. I guess you just got unlucky busting with your AK but there is always another tourny.

"o, if by folding this hand, your final prize will be on average $600 or more, then you should push AKs here. The added chips will worth more than the money you risked. But since 35k is less than half the average stack at the moment, I don't think most players can pull off an average $600 finish here.

The morality factor and possible tilting should also be considered. Back in the early Partypoker years, in my very first $200 MTT, I open folded KK for the $600 bubble prize. (my final prize was $900). That cashing gave me a big confidence boost down on this road. On the other hand, last year alone, my AA lost to exactly 72o three times on the bubble of Pokerstars supersatellites. These beats made me hate myself for not folding when I could 100% cruise into the money. My playing style was also affected for a long period after that.

I respect all the players who choose to push here. I know many seasoned pros would seek big confrontations paticularly in these bubble situations to have a better shot at the top prizes. More power to you. I have been burnt too many times, just can't pull the trigger there. "

Lol, please stop posting this horrible advice.

o, if by folding this hand, your final prize will be on average $600 or more, then you should push AKs here. The added chips will worth more than the money you risked. But since 35k is less than half the average stack at the moment, I don't think most players can pull off an average $600 finish here.

The morality factor and possible tilting should also be considered. Back in the early Partypoker years, in my very first $200 MTT, I open folded KK for the $600 bubble prize. (my final prize was $900). That cashing gave me a big confidence boost down on this road. On the other hand, last year alone, my AA lost to exactly 72o three times on the bubble of Pokerstars supersatellites. These beats made me hate myself for not folding when I could 100% cruise into the money. My playing style was also affected for a long period after that.

I respect all the players who choose to push here. I know many seasoned pros would seek big confrontations paticularly in these bubble situations to have a better shot at the top prizes. More power to you. I have been burnt too many times, just can't pull the trigger there.




come on..........

omg just push wtf gtfo

Are you kidding me? The BI on the Sunday Million (less rake) is $200. If 14% of the field cashes (rounding up to be conservative in my estimate), then an average stack is worth $1430 on the bubble. Someone who couldn't make $600 on average with half the average stack would have to be a ridiculously -EV player. And your other assumptions are ridiculous anyway. There's no way we're behind a typical calling range, and doubling up definitely gains us more than 75% of our non-bubble EV with the blinds and antes. It's probably more like 105%.

I'm definitely not a high-stakes MTT player, but timebank/shove sounds right to me.

Due to my ignorance, though, I have to ask: let's say we're in MP2. Is it standard to call a 12xBB UTG shove on the bubble with AQo or 99 and a, say, 90K stack? The stack sizes at the table should influence this decision a little perhaps, because if we're called by a stack small enough to be hurt by the loss of 35K, we're probably in trouble. Or if there are 2-3 (or more) monster stacks at the table, we could get called in two places and checked down and out of the tournament.

Still, shove because folding is way too nitty, calling can't win the blinds, and we don't want to have to play this hand postflop OOP.

One last thing. AKs is a super-easy shove according to most responders. My question then is: in this situation, what is your shoving range?

morality factors ITT?

What's the point of timebanking here? I see some players do this near the bubble; always figured it was scared money that just wanted to min cash, but if we're short stacked should we be timebanking every hand?

Also, what range are we shoving in OPs spot? 88+, AJs+? Too loose/tight?