Exactly. Tp hu bb vs LJ putting in 2 less than psb is obv fine. Easy call

This hand is too obvious to give any serious advice

c/r > fold > call

Why do you think people have tight opening ranges?

what do you think folds that you beat? Id rank em exact opposite, c/r has to be an absolute disaster

Haha fyl when Bparis calls you a nit.

Call obv.

His range seemed quite weak and kinda capped to me, while we could easily have a set or straight here (much more often than him anyway)

so far we've checked twice and called once, I think our sets/straights are pretty discounted in his mind

I think what matters here is his sizing on the river, would he thin value so large QTs Q9s, I don't think so..he would probably more bet half pot (maybe i m wrong),there are Q in my range that beat him, so i think his bet is very polarized, and why don't bet this board if he wanted to bluff i have still in my range a tons of hands i have to fold and i don't show i was inclined to bluff raise flops..

so may be i overthink it, and he just wanted to give up the hand unless he saw a high card to try to bluff me out, knowing that i can call with combo pair+draw on turn and making a big bet otr to make me fold a majority of my range on most river cards

I dont mind folding pre. River is easy call for me, given the odds (on chips), we are good here at least 31% of the time for sure.... I suppose we are good here like 50-60% of the time, so folding is burning money.

EDIT: Calling pre and folding this river doesnt make much of a sense to me. If you are planning to fold these rivers, just fold pre...

we need to be good more than 39% of the time..

It could be true considering ICM, but on chips we are getting 15k/(15k+23.6k) = 31%

depends how wide you defend your bb. if villain thinks youre defending 56s 87s etc, than you have plenty of stuff that will want to call turn and fold river. as played, river is a snapcall for me.

turnplay is definitely close and gameflow dependent. If you know he likes to check back weaker SD val than you should just bet twice when he checks back flop, you need to have this in your valrange.

what?
unless my windows calculator goes wrong when i do 15/38.6 it gives me 38.88..

I am sorry, we are both wrong 15/38.6 is what you say, but it actually is 15/(15+15+23.6) = 27.98%.

If we loose 15k 72% of the time and win 38.6k 28% of the time, we should break even.

So we need to be good even less often. Is it right now?

Dont look at pot odds in Hsmtt, they just like to find reasons to make ridiculous folds

As played easy call but you should probably be betting the turn yourself unless you have a read that he's going to delayed cbet bluff a lot (and since you made this thread that's obviously not the case)

lol no

I think pre fold>raise>call vs a good player. It's always a marginal tough gambling whatever spot oop with this hand vs good reg, like the one you got yourself into. Looks like better Q or delayed overpair as played, I would fold otr but again as someone said here - it wouldn't make sense playing QJ if you fold these boards.