WTF? Who posts a hand about having AQo OTB versus a BB 3bet shove?

No HH. Stars $320 last night. 120ish left, 99 pay. 300/600/75. I have ~25K OTB. Villain, with some name like iamgod1234, just got moved to the table. This is his first hand. Villain has ~30K. I have no idea who he is, I'm sure the reverse is true. If you know who he is, answer treating him as an unknown as well, por favor.

I open OTB to 1500. As I'm preparing to 4bet shove, I find that I cannot do so because Villain has moved all in. 40 BBs to call. Hero?

I got the feeling that this is going to be one of these hyperlong threads. The guy is an unknown obv, its his first hand and he is moving all in to you from BB, I might as well just put him in two random cards. Against two random cards you have 64% equity. If he is moving all in with {99-33} then you have 45% equity, and against 33-99 and something like AT it's almost exactly 50/50. Now after all this I don't know what I would do LOL. It's a marginal spot tho, you are not super short or anything like that so a fold wouldn't be that bad I guess. Let's see what the other 2+2ers say.

I generally assume that this makes AJ/KQs more of their range and QQ+ less of it. IIRC, I'm generally wrong about that.

Villain has some sick results (I OPR'ed him), so we gotta assume that he knows what he's doing. I think this is actually very similar to a djk style big open shove where villain knows he's making a profitable shove but doesn't want to encourage a 4bet. If that's the case, AQo is worth a triple fistpump before making the call imo.

DJK 3 bet overshove corollary in development?

according to typos calc you go from ~$1500 to ~$2500 if you double, $0 if you bust obv, so you need ~37.5% (edit: oops i suck. 1500 to win 1000 not 2500. need 60%), and theres pretty much no range he'll show up with that gives us near that bad.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.043% 29.77% 10.27% 275308272 94943334.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 59.957% 49.69% 10.27% 459449220 94943334.00 { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }

Looks like I need 60% with those numbers, IMO.

BOH! yea i used the numbers wrong. you're right, and i guess snap fold, gl finding a range we have 60% vs. (well, any ace any pair any broadway would do it, but i dont give that out lightly.)

60% seems too high to me, but I have nothing to back it up other than ICM instincts. That corresponds to a bubble factor of almost 2. But setting aside the ICM, what's your best guess as to his actual range here, Mr. Only?

so i guess it depends how off you think typo's icm is, i'm not confident about this guy shoving a range that gives us 55% either - though that'd be way more reasonable (if a 40bb shove here can be reasonable?)

i think we end up w/ around 50%, +/-5% equity, doesn't sound like thats enough.

what seems 'right' to you?

I think 54-55% seems about right, I can construct a perfectly reasonable seeming range (to the extent that shoving any hand here is reasonable) that gives us better, like the one below.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,232,858,880 games 0.005 secs 246,571,776,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.831% 33.77% 08.06% 416329332 99386634.00 { 99-66, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 1: 58.169% 50.11% 08.06% 617756280 99386634.00 { AQo }


---

Calculator is at http://www.jamorfold.com/icm.html if anyone else was confused (like htf can you need more than 50% pre?!)

Let me know if this is bad, but this is how I think he thinks (as an unknown):
1: His hand can't face a 4 bet because he perceives your 4 bet range to be relatively tight as an unknown. However, cos of the late position dynamic he thinks you could easily spazz and shove lighter some % and 3 bet folding feels a bit spewy and shoving is +EV so he should do that.

or

2: Because of #1, he will think you will perceive his range to be super wide, so you will call wider than you will 4 bet (seems unlikely) and so he ships with the nizzles.

or maybe some other thought process.

I think unknowns are more likely to be #1 and generally won't balance very often if at all. Since their shoving instead of 3 bet range is pretty narrow and at the bottom of what should probably be in their 3 betting (or at the top of their) range, I think AQ is probably good enough to call here.

Maybe this is just super wishful thinking:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.361% 61.59% 00.77% 1695775560 21268200.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 37.639% 36.87% 00.77% 1015072872 21268200.00 { 66-22, A8s-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, KTo+, QTo+ }

I don't know how many worse aces we should put in his range so I just went for some suited ones.
I also obviously don't know if he reships this many broadway type hands or mainly small pairs (which would make it a fold).

Im not much of a math guy so Im just going to tell you what he has. He has 66-99 and dosen't wanna get 4 bet from some moron with 910s. Don't see him doing this with anything else.

I got different numbers than Exitonly.

double up, fold

This says we need 54% equity to call, which makes a lot more sense to me than 60%. It feels wrong to fold here but I guess it's correct?

heh, thats what i get for not opening up the tourney lobby. i was lazy and just estimated prizepool/payouts

without doing any math i'd think fold vs an unknown. i just can't imagine anyones range is going to be wide enough here to warrant calling off AQo even taking into account that people are making more and more large reshoves these days.

just wanna say that if you're villain, and OOP near the bubble but not near enough to fold in if you lose this pot, equity wise these are pretty much the only hands it makes sense to shove with, and maybe not AQ.

so basically, I'd expect somebody that knew what they were doing to either be shoving this range or to be on some insane metalevel where they were willing to trade a few hundred bucks in EV for image. that, or tilting.

edit: note that you can plain 3 bet a much wider range and flat if you don't feel like 3 betting, I'm just talking about shoving 40x.

without mentioning ICM calculations it should be pretty obv that we're too deep to call a shove from unknown's 1st hand. AK is a call, AQ is a fold. pass on this marginal spot because u have enough money to make a deep run on the tourney. and of course pay close attention to villain on the following hands so u can make a much better educated guess if the situation arises again.

Noone thinks that he like always has ak.

well villain is very aggressive and pretty good for future reference, but ya hes a random here.

i really dont think this is AK though as AK is more likely to pull a go and go then shove 40x, no? my range would discount AK, AA, KK, and QQ at least partially so i would most likely be calling.

ok i guess i suck at pokerstoving in my head, fold i guess.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

955,465,632 games 0.062 secs 15,410,736,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.353% 35.69% 09.66% 341021794 92309156.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 54.647% 44.99% 09.66% 429825526 92309156.00 { QQ-77, AQs-AJs, AdKc, AdKh, AQo }

I would fold AQ easily and call with AK happily

it just feels dirty folding the upper part of our button open

and villain should be wider than what most of ya'll are saying... def. tighter than joka's range but i think his is actually the most accurate.

edit:
WOW just reread joka's range... ALOT tighter than that

Yeah, my first range is pretty ridonkulous, I did it too quickly. (Although, if people really fold AQ here shoving sick wide will be profitable for villain!) But I think the fact remaind that villain never has a really good hand, I don't understand why we should give him AK for example. I think this looks better:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.572% 57.58% 00.99% 1159447284 19995072.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 41.428% 40.44% 00.99% 814232076 19995072.00 { 88-22, AJs-A9s, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, KJo }

And other random stuff he could have only improves your equity.