Villain is a 2p2er. Prior to this tournament I had played with him for like 5 minutes total according to my database. We've been at the table together for a couple hours, his stats are tight: 10/8 over 180ish hands. Withholding his name because I want the hand to be evaluated based on what I knew at the time and to avoid too much discussion about his relevant tendencies.

What do you think his river range is here and what should we call with?


Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t25 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

UTG: t5855 M = 9.76
UTG+1: t17470 M = 29.12
UTG+2: t3495 M = 5.83
MP1: t7924 M = 13.21
MP2: t12271 M = 20.45
Hero (CO): t9660 M = 16.10
BTN: t17475 M = 29.12
SB: t44652 M = 74.42
BB: t4765 M = 7.94

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is CO with XX
3 folds, MP1 raises to t550, 1 fold, Hero calls t550, 3 folds

Flop: (t1700) A 4 5 (2 players)
MP1 bets t680, Hero calls t680

Turn: (t3060) T (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: (t3060) A (2 players)
MP1 bets t2222, Hero ???

dont play anywhere near this high but:
doesnt make sense for him to be bluffing a lot after he seemingly shuts it down ott + the A is obv. a bad bluffing card (level 1).
he could be v.betting JJ-KK and some Tx hands.
he could be stronger, having tried to c/r turn with AT etc.

He know you?

call with jj and better todd

villan is never valuebetting jj-kk imo and shouldnt even be betting his weak aces. you have an ace too often and your never paying off with somethign dumb like 7s

Hero has no bluffs in his range if checked to on the river, therefore only betting trips. heros A/rag should never get called by worse so hero should check behind because villan may C/R. Hero is also unliekly to have hands as strong as AJ/AQ because those often bet turn.

so if villans playin his sweetest A game hes leading at worst A7 for value so yea you should be mucking A6

pretty sure he`s not betting Tx + JJ+ that big on the river without any history except this tournament and also he is very rarely trying to get 3 streets of value with less than AK/maybe AQ if he knows hero and is aware of his stats, especially if he has to bet much less than 2/5pot on the turn if he wants to avoid to be left with only a psb on the river...not to sure what he could be bluffing with though, since I think you`re checking back any Ax on the turn and blockers like JQ/KQ-hands usually semibluff the turn more likely than they bluff the river, as 67 and stuff do???

Call any ace in your range, fold KK.

I think his value range is most consistent with AJ-AK, then some other Ax, occasional JJ-KK/worse hands (sizing too big). Don't think there are many bluffs in his range, given his line. I think most broadway hands, if they are gonna bluff, would barrel turn. Outside of that, not like he's gonna randomly do this w/ 22 or 89 much on a card most ppl perceive as a terrible bluff card. But ya know, ace blocker, narrow value range.

I would not call with KK.

Given stack sizes pre and Villain's tight stats what aces would you expect to be in my range here?

You're not flatting A3s?

Not sure if it's a good/bad bluff spot, just saying range of 2p2ers aren't bluffing enough to justify a call w KK. Looking again, I'd guess bottom of your Ax flatting range is ATs/AJ since it's 100r and you have two large stacks and a resteal stack behind. Diff stacks/less aggro tourney I'd guess A8s.

kq+

i doubt hes betting that amt on the flop with jj-kk ya? agree with deeb this line looks airy

Shoe the river

I'm not sure how relevant this is to the discussion unless villain knows your tendencies which ia unlikely given 5 mins of playing time.

I think what is more relevant is which aces villain has in his of range from mp here - I would think AJo being the cutoff? I think a good villain also checks an AK & AQ on this dry flop a sig percent of the time OOP for deception purposes especially because he needs to to survive by playing 10/8 pf.

As played I don't agree that he is airy necessarily but personally, in his position, I would prob vb jj+ here and get heroed by mid pairs a but. Agree with smuttt - call jj+

light

sup

call him light todd... hi charder (trying to get into double digit 2p2 posts tonight)

his line looks infinite strong vs you /your perceived range pre/post so I would have a hard time calling light at all here / insane spot to be bluffing

looks like he went for a c/r on turn /is boated up now ( w/the top of his range ), prolly A9s+ at a minimum for his value here

deeb, because of flop sizing or because bluff freq with air on riv is higher than I'm thinking?

Is there some other reason?

im assuming u arent flatting weaker than ats pre here, so id say any ace u have and kk

OP, your take?