Quote:
Originally Posted by Beachman42
Donovan,
I think you are missing a key element of the stop-n-go, which is getting MORE folds on the flop than you expect pf. This is a short stack move in MTTs that also impacts tournamnet life. You are willing to "go" with your hand expecting a flip most of the time. If you get any fold otf, you win the chips and survive. A Stop N Go isn't about winning the max (always doubling up) as it is increacing your chances of winning the hand.
Do you really think I'm missing that? I don't wanna sound like a jerk but that's what the entire conversations been about. Did you read the OP. I understand that it's going to win more often than a flip. If you have a PP vs 2 overs it will work about 16% more often, the difference between 1 to 1 and 2 to 1. But you win a lot less when you win and you still get stacked when you lose. In my example I used stacks of 1200 and a 400 raise. If you shove preflop your laying two to one and getting called, if you stop and go with a PP vs overs your opponent only spends 400 to win your stack of 1200. He's going to stack you about 1/3 when he hits the flop and get away with his stack in tact when he misses the flop. Two out of three times you'll win 400, one out of three you'll lose 1200.
using those three out of three;400+400-1200 = -800. You lose 800 over three trials, the play is - 233 EV.
Is the EV loss made up for or recouped in TEV? I think the answer is almost always no, unless maybe you're on a very significant money bubble with a very particular pay out structure.
Its ironic that i'm coming down on this side now. I have been locking horns in a medium stakes thread about TEV vs EV. Mostly people disagree with me that TEV is not equal to EV. Now, I do know better than that but the stop and go play, in its original form just seems to be SO bad in terms of EV that it can't be right often in TEV.
Last edited by Donovan; 11-29-2011 at 11:24 PM.