so what's the plan here, assuming villain is;

a) a complete unknown
b) a 70$ ABI small winning reg

What's going on on the turn?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Full Tilt, 20/40 blinds No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8234022

BTN: 5,736 (143.4 bb)
Hero (SB): 4,485 (112.1 bb)
BB: 4,652 (116.3 bb)
UTG+1: 4,592 (114.8 bb)
UTG+2: 7,068 (176.7 bb)
MP1: 3,950 (98.8 bb)
MP2: 5,915 (147.9 bb)
MP3: 4,275 (106.9 bb)
CO: 4,357 (108.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q J
3 folds, MP2 raises to 120, 3 folds, Hero raises to 400, BB folds, MP2 calls 280

Flop: (840) 5 7 T (2 players)
Hero bets 460, MP2 raises to 950, Hero calls 490

Turn: (2,740) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

River: (2,740) 9 (2 players)

id b/f small against people who dont have toughness

i like this

turn he either has a boat and is like 'OMG TRAP' or he has info-raised JJ and now decides he wants to keep the pot small

hmmm do you think he would raise a ten on the flop? if so bet

do you think he is donking around with overcards or a small pair or something thinking you fold a lot? if so c/c

a) 1050/f : big enough to convince yourself you haven't induced spazz, small enough to get called by overpairs/AT.

b) c/decide. I'm having trouble finding a hand that will bet river that you beat besides maybe Th8h if villain is hood [pre] or KK+ if villain is trappy [pre]. Doubt villain is raising JJ-QQ otf (and won't be calling as much as an unknown with those hands on river). I would expect small river bets to get raised with a much higher frequency from a good reg, as they would be more capable to turn AhX into a bluff and would be more likely to raise flop + check turn with AhXh. By checking against a winning reg you might be able to induce thin value-cuts from villain as well. Might be folding to a healthy sized bet, though...

I think I would bet 825/fold because of what Ruben said.

Against a fish this seems to be quite often a fullhouse. idk why but they just have to chek that ***** turn and slowplay.

But i'm still betting though and folding to a re-raise every single time.

And same plan against described villain.

....I think I'm getting it in the flop though...against everybody.

B/f 1.5k. I think he's more likely to have a pair than a boat.

+1

this tilts the hell out of me

I don´t like the re-raise preflop.

With these ABI and small winner he is probably don´t calling with worse hands (I think guys who plays stakes higher than they used to be tends to play more tight)so if he decide to call he will probably dominate your range.
So you are basically bluffing because you don´t want to be called dominated OOP.

preflop seems like button clicking. Flop seems like an easy shove, wtf? If we're playing QJ this way and he's giving us this cutsie raise how can we not get it in? River is a standard bet fold

Becasue alot of villains' ranges are mostly sets, pr+fd, larger fds, and very few folds. Unless we know villain to be a fish who like to info raise, shoving seems like total spew to me.

How so?

U got 3k left n pot is 2700
Value
Shove

There are two pairs + fd that we are busted AhTh and A4hh (these second I think it´s very hard). We have Jh and Qh of blocker so no combination of better King high draws with 5h 7h it´s very hard for him have pair FD (9hTh we are flipping). Obvious if he isn´t never folding shove sux , but I really don´t believe it.

Yes I agree that there aren't necessarily that many combos he will be r/c (although you ignored the fact that he can be trapping overpairs pre), but that alone doesn't mean anything. Even if his value range is a really small percentage of his flatting range, that doesn't mean he is going to have a significant r/f range here, as well. I don't think many randoms or small winning midstakes regs who are taking a shot are going to be hooding Busto's 3bet early in a 1k to CIB bluff this board. So, we are very rarely dealing with someone who has pure air. We can hope that he is info raise/folding with JJ/99, but I don't think that is likely from the second player type, and not very common in a 1k, in general.

I think our eq is going to be ~30% at worst and ~33% at the very best when we get it in, which means he needs to be folding between 22-29% of the time to breakeven. Personally, I think our EQ is ~31% and he needs to fold ~27%. There are likely going to be some villains whose ranges allow us to get it in profitably with those conditions, but it just seems silly without any history to guess, when we could be making a really big mistake, and we are getting laid such a good price on a call.

I will concede it may be optimal to shove against some HSMTT hoodlums who are bluffing enough otf and will be very difficult to get any value from on the turn and river

But Villain's flop raise sizing makes it a lot less likely that he has a huge hand or a draw and a lot more likely that he's raising for info. I'd be really tempted to jam the flop.

You think villain is going to shove if he has a huge hand/draw or make some transparent commited raise sizing? I guess one or the other makes sense, if he is also the type to raise to know where he is at. I do run into quite a few people who flat aces here pre and make this tiny raise on almost every flop.

I guess my biggest problem is simply that it is an online non ftops/wcoop 1k, and you just don't see people raise/tanking and typing "JJ" into these too often. Otoh, the players who will do it, probably do it more often in the biggest tourneys they play. We should def OPR villain, and if he is a satty winner, I'm ok with it. I think we should also search villain and see how many entries he has running if it is MET, and at least take note of what other tables he is playing at, as well. If he is one tabling, or just playing this and one miniftops table, then fine, go for it.

I still don't think we should do it against the other type, unless he is a lower volume reg who just binked one big score for all his profit or something.

the sizing leads me to believe villain may be fos or have something like jj or a bare 10 that he could either fold or call where we are slightly behind/flipping. I don't see his sizing as scary at all, and shoving with a flush draw when we already have 1/4 of our stack in and f/e is most definitely not spew.

3 betting with QJs out of postion at 20-40 vs a 70 ABI in the 1k is the definition of button clicking. Are we that desperate to pick up the 160 pre. In position I could dig it, but out of position it is forcing the issue and impatient imo... tons of better spots to be had down the road.

b/f can't be good with these stacksizes, if you bet leaving enough room to fold then he might valueraise worse hands (I think if someone bet 1/3 pot on this river into me I'd put them on JJish and would raise any flush/7x) I think it's between c/c, b small/c or betting big.

U butchered the hand up until now. I hate a 3 bet preflop, I hate not shoving the flop.

River I shove. I really think B/f is the worst option. He can have a smaller flush or a 7and be shoving with worse.

I don't 3b pre but can see reasons for it this deep. Flop I hate getting in but prolly do against random because their raises in position never have a purpose. 70 abi winning reg prolly flat. River...meh unknowns are stupid and usually a boat i'd think but obviously can show up worse..70 abi reg dunno...maybe c/decide? Depends on what 70 abi villain knows about you history wise in these spots...because your flop flat range are possibly sets, don't think overpairs? and maybe fd's but like i said, dunno your game. Random thoughts..use them or don't. Results?

pre is good as part of a balanced strategy what are you guys talking about. Everything up til now is good and I would just b/f 1175 or something

I believe shoving river is the worst option, I prefer either b/f if I believe opponent is average winning player, or c/c if opponent is capable of big bluffs.

What is going on ITT. Ya b/f smallish