I got berated for this so I may as well post it. This is from my favorite tournament, the FTP 109 6max at 23:00. Villain is a random, UTG is obv a whale.

I don't think there's any merit whatsoever to shoving the flop, this guy is obviously never bluffing and I just don't have good enough equity vs his range given how little I've invested.

Can I make a profit by calling the flop raise, and calling the turn if I catch a 2,4,5,7 or diamond, and folding otherwise, or should I just stab myself in the eye and fold my beautiful draw?

Full Tilt Poker $30,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t2970
BB: t5895
UTG: t3180
MP: t3360
Hero (CO): t3635
BTN: t1960

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is CO with 5 4
UTG raises to t60, MP calls t60, Hero calls t60, 1 fold, SB calls t45, BB calls t30

Flop: (t300) 6 3 A (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets t30, MP calls t30, Hero raises to t300, SB folds, BB raises to t1260, UTG folds, MP folds, Hero calls t960

Turn: (t2880) 4 (2 players)
BB bets t4575 all in, Hero calls t2315 all in

River: (t7510) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

I don't quite see why u should not be shoving the flop - unless he is on a flush draw u r a favorite or do I get sth wrong here?

You are pretty close to priced in on the turn even if it blanks, so I think you might as well shove flop if you are going to call.

And against most ranges that don't include 3dxd, the pots laying you about the right price (According to my probably incorrect math you only need 43%). The few ranges you don't, hitting a 4 or a 5 won't change your equity on the turn at all against.

Well, the good reason for shoving the flop is that you may not be able to get the rest in if your draw comes in but given how much you'll have behind and how much is in the pot, it's very very unlikely he'll fold his two pair+ OOP on later streets. It's also unlikely he'll fold a better diamond draw to a four-bet otf.

My reason for shoving the flop is simply that I'd be very excited about flipping with slightly the worst of it for a 250bb pot in a six-max.

He never has a flush draw, which is good, get it in on the flop, even if he never folds, you need 43.6% to break even:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

25,740 games 0.046 secs 559,565 games/sec

Board: Ad 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.972% 52.97% 00.00% 13635 0.00 { 66, 33, A6s, A3s, 63s, A6o, A3o }
Hand 1: 47.028% 47.03% 00.00% 12105 0.00 { 5d4d }


---

yeah ship it in on the flop, there is no way to manipulate the situation really - so just stick it in for the guaranteed double if you do hit (esp because it's 6max and you can more easily parlay deepstackedness into chip acquisition over the course of the tournament)

yes you do!

may as well just shove the flop if your intending to call anyways. calling leaves less than a PSB in your stack

[x] thinks 4-bet shove on the flop is totally elementary.

[x] lost a lot of respect for OP.

Yeah I'm a clown, I didn't realize I had odds to call it off on the turn even on a brick, even though it's pretty thin, I still have to call.

I'm still not convinced that shoving is better than call/call, or call/fold a board pair (other than the 3 of diamonds). Using the range that Todd Terry posted, which I agree with, I make an average of 255 chips by shoving the flop.

If I go call/call, there's 45 different cards that can come on the turn, and I can figure out my EV relative to folding the flop for each of these cards.

8/45 cards I fold, EV = -960
12/45 heart or spade bricks, EV = -865
4/45 heart or spade 4/5, EV = -565
6/45 club brick, EV = -880
2/45 club 4/5, EV = -575
1/45 3 of diamonds, EV = -300
12/45 straight or flush card other than 3d, EV = +3315

Total EV = +280, plus I bust out less often! Someone convince me that I'm wrong, it looks to me like I actually do improve my equity this way. I mean obviously if he EVER folds then I should shove the flop but I'm guessing he folds 0% of the time.

[x] I didn't have respect for you in the first place, HU4rollz, etc. etc.

Don't be a jerk.

Sorry, not trying to be a jerk, just genuinely surprised that you would call off 1/3 of your stack there without a clear plan for the (blank) turn.

You auto-assume that he stacks off when you hit straight/flush with his entire range in your eV calculation. I disagree with your assumption, suck it up and shove imo.

It's a fairly safe assumption IMO. Hero is in position with <PSB and villain covers by almost a starting stack. The only way that hero doesn't get it in is if he has a brainfart and checks behind on a diamond turn and a fourth diamond falls on the river.

Of course villain very occasionally does fold on the flop with one pair and occasionally does have a better flush draw but w/e it's clearly more or less a flip on the flop.

I like the thrust of OP's post. If correct that calling has a higher cEV, that's food for thought. However, I'd still take a flip for a 250bb stack.

how bout shove with king high fd, let alone an open ender with a fd.

i just get it in on the flop b/c I don't know any better.