[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (80/160 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11631912

CO: 18,165 (113.5 bb)
BTN: 9,280 (58 bb)
SB: 8,170 (51.1 bb)
BB: 34,260 (214.1 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): 8,176 (51.1 bb)
UTG+2: 9,223 (57.6 bb)
MP1: 12,082 (75.5 bb)
MP2: 13,211 (82.6 bb)
MP3: 13,321 (83.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J J
Hero raises to 368, 5 folds, BTN calls 368, 2 folds

Flop: (976) 5 2 8 (2 players)
Hero bets 409, BTN raises to 960, Hero calls 551

Turn: (2,896) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 1,760,

2nd hand of guy at the table, I quickly checked him on OPR during the hand - he is a losing player.

Hero?

flat reev/river imo.

think he ll be raising worse on flop. his range doesnt only include sets but good combo draws or OC+FD.

i prlly call brick rivers.


safter line obv is to just give up on turn and it might be better in a MTT like this where u dont need to play the guessing game early on, defo better spots but its hard to fold turn vs loosing player here imo.

thoughts on folding turn ? seems like a meh spot...

I don't see the point of calling the raise if we're folding this turn. Call anything on the river that is not a 4, a 9 or a heart. Expect to sometimes see a set from the villain here.

Called turn to see what he does next, and he bet turn super fast like he doesnt even care what card is coming... Dont you guys think it's better to find other spots then this ?

Of all the reasons for calling, let's just say this is not the best one.

What's your river plan?

IHas V has shown any tendency to overvalue hands to this point?

why? folding is just way to weak, also I give a lot of weight to his timing+sizing on turn - what else I got left with no reads at all?

I folded on turn..

The reason I asked was because if your plan was to fold on all river cards(and given your description I think you will be facing a bet) then I like folding the turn. If there are some that you call on(obviously Jc, possibly Jh and some bricks) then there would be more discussion about calling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by busto23
Of all the reasons for calling, let's just say this is not the best one.

Quote:
why? folding is just way to weak, also I give a lot of weight to his timing+sizing on turn - what else I got left with no reads at all?

i think he raises alot of hands on this flop...top pair hands and such trying to shutdown flush draw and tons of potential draws and combo draws especially with 2 overs. turn almot never changes anything...you check to him him being in position makes our hand look kinda weak kinda, hes going to fire again here alot. i think we can ususally call turn bet as well as river if it bricks.

I heavily disagree with your analysis and don't think you are thinking about the relevant factors. Saying 'folding is weak' as a reason to call is not particularly useful, you're just donating 1700 if you're going to be equally confused facing a huge bet on the river. Turn changes a lot, you called a raise and villain is still betting so you have a lot more information. Checking doesn't make our hand look weak and competent villains know you can still have AA at this point. I'm not saying he automatically has you beat, but he is clearly putting more money/pressure on you than you'd like and you just have a bluff-catcher at this point. If he's thinking about the wrong things he could possibly be raising an 8 to protect his hand/for information/some other awful reason but on the turn I think it becomes less likely he has something like A8. Also note the 8 and 5 are s so he can't have top or middle pair and a flush draw on the flop.

you have a single pair hand. you've opened utg+1. you've c-bet. you've called his raise. V is perfectly aware you have something other than two over-cards.

if you released ott, nh wp.

Would this line of thinking be super exploitable by a competent villain? Are you recommending that anytime there are FD *and* SD possibilities on the board and you are OOP, you give up the turn?

No obviously. If anyone figures out your line of thinking in a hand of course it's super exploitable. Against a competent villain I would play the hand differently and would also be aware he is thinking about different things(like bluffing and what I may have). OP said this villain was a losing player so I'm sure he is not thinking along these lines let alone figuring out that your thought process may be that.

agree, he was a losing player - dont think he even cares about such stuff.
btw after like 70 hands more at the table he had been superpassive - running 20/1 and folding a ton to cbets so I guess it was a good fold.